Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

Well, while the SSKs in the Navy are extremely silent, the SSNs (unless the 095 has come online) are about as bad (or good) as modernised LA class which isn't that bad but not good either.

Mass usage of underwater drones is a way to destroy enemy submarines. As most combat will happen between China's 1st island chain and the 2nd island chain where America has bases, Chinese SSKs can fairly seamlessly join the battle. A strategy that could be used is to send SSKs to escort SSNs. The Seawolf and potentially the Virginia class might be able to detect the 093G first, but that can be turned into a trap if there's 1 or 2 041s stalking around that will be invisible and pounce on the USN SSN once it starts aggressively chasing the "lone" 093G. Combined with underwater drones giving an edge on intel, it should in theory provide a satisfactory defense.

China does not really want to send 094s far into the Pacific during an active war. They don't carry conventional weapons and if a conflict goes nuclear even whatever China is doing with ABM and fortresses, I'm sure the Chinese govt realize it would lead to MAD. Both countries have enough nukes that if they just nuked themselves or the ocean, it'd likely still cause a collapse of civilization through weather changes.

Protecting 094s on long patrols is a really low priority, China would just retract the SSBNs to SCS or yellow sea while the Navy focuses on whittling down incoming conventional enemy forces.

tphuang said:

Tag @ansy1968, given this is kind of a reply to the SCS thread.

If there is one thing the Ukraine conflict taught us, it would be that a large portion of American foreign policy makers regard China as its pre-eminent threat, regardless of the fact that China has not invaded anyone for 40 years or that China is far more interested in winning through trade + de-industrializing Western powers vs real war. The other thing we've seen is the desperation of Japan. Under Abe, Japan has aligned itself 100% of its foreign policy to following America. Japan of 15 years ago would probably not have followed America step by step in all the sanctioning of Russia. But now given its fading power status and worry about Chinese hegemony in East Asia, it is scared to death of that outcome. It is willing to follow America 100% despite having very little cultural link to America and getting completely de-industrialized by the vulture capitalism of Wall Street/shadow banking system following Plaza Accord. Japan of today has a very old population with very below replacement level birth rate, lack of natural resources and domestic industry is increasingly uncompetitive. Its economy by nominal GDP is less than what it was in 1995 and its national debt is 250%of GDP. The entire situation is only getting worse as the working age population vs welfare population ratio is continually shrinking. As such, Japan is holding onto its alliance with America with dear life while dreading the growing behemoth next door.

So any China/Taiwan situation will likely trigger the involvement of US/Japan if the conflict is not resolved in 30 days. This is assuming that America does not take the dramatic action of keeping 4 carriers that are either operating around westpac or able to surged to combat status (in 60 days) at all times.

So, what is the biggest threat facing China? I think there is the nuclear issue and also the submarine issue. Those are quite related. Shilao podcast did a length segment on the troubles facing China in the submarine area recently. If you are sitting somewhere in the PLAN command and planning out war games, the part that will give you the most trouble is how to find submarines. The threats are the USN Virginia class and the JMSDF diesel subs like Soryu/Taigei class. They present different problems. With the latter, if it disappears from its port, you now it can probably only go so far for 2 days before it needs to surface or rely on AIP to move at really slow speed (like 3/4 knots). Assuming Chinese MPAs are competent and able to tell when submarines surface, diesel submarines can only go so far traveling at 8 knots for 2 days. Diesel submarines that go any faster than that are probably going to be noisy and easily detectable. As such, PLAN will most likely be concerned about Japanese subs from Kyushu to Taiwan. While that is a large area, individual subs probably can be tracked if China has air/surface combatant superiority in the area. For the sake argument, I would assume that China has advantages in both through Air Force and ASBM/ballistic missiles against Japanese ships and military bases. Assuming that China has full complement of Y8/9 ASW aircraft, Z20F, diesel submarines, surface combatant, underwater gliders and underwater sonar network, it would give them a good chance of finding moving Japanese subs before they get within striking distance of Chinese capital ships. At worst, PLAN might be willing to sacrifice some of its less advanced diesel subs and smaller surface combatant in the process of finding and destroying Japanese subs. So while dangerous, I would say this is a manageable task if they had air/surface superiority.

Which then brings us to the much larger problem of the USN subs. Ia Virginia class disappears from Guam and moves around, PLAN might have no idea where it is until it surfaces somewhere 6 months later. That's the strategic disadvantage China faces from having really noisy nuclear subs. While the Chinese SSNs may have modern combat system and sonar systems, they are simply too noisy to be chasing around Virginia class, because they'd be dead in the water. As such, Chinese SSNs have to remain relatively close to air/surface protection and be used as additional ASW platform in finding USN subs. The trouble with that is just how large Sea/Ocean is. There is only so large of an area that each helicopter, ASW aircraft and surface ship can search for. Without getting cued up, it's really hard to actually track a quiet sub. 054A/056s are too slow and noisy due to their diesel engines. Also once you lower your TAS/VDS, you can't go that fast when you are sweeping an area for submarines. As more Z20Fs and Y-9 join service, that will increase the area that PLAN can actively search for USN subs while also protecting surface combatants and SSBNs (very important). Assuming that the most recent generation of SLBM by later part of this decade can reach continental USA from SCS, it would represent true naval based nuclear deterrence. I haven't followed the rumor mills enough to know the answer to this, but would assume this is something they should have by then. With 6 094s, they can probably get 2 out on patrol at all times. It's critical that PLAN can prevent Virginia class from attacking them. If you look at the map, SCS is actually a very large area. The island expansions allow them to fly land based aircraft from more places and install underwater network further out. With more ships, more helicopters, more gliders and larger underwater network, they can be confident about the range of area that 094s can operate from, making them a real deterrent. Keep in mind that while the earlier 056s were transferred to the coast guards, the ASW ones are still operational. They also, really ramped up production of 054A and the new 052D designed for Z20s. Even though they are not the most advanced platforms, PLAN knows that it needs more of these platforms to fight, take losses and find nuclear subs, even if just as a landing pad. With Cambodia support, they could also fly also operate aircraft out of their airport occasionally and expand on the covered area.

I will continue next part tomorrow.

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@tphuang Sir you need your rest and I eagerly await the next part BUT allow me to answer, in the Taiwan strait region China has Escalation Dominance and Japan is a target. IF Japan want to go back to the stone age then China should oblige. My feeling all of these are posturing and to scare China BUT aftermath of the Ukraine War prove otherwise. The realization had come home to roost, war is hell and the suffering is real and I think that common sense is now being acknowledge among the Japanese politician.

Let's get something clear here. 093A aren't anywhere close to later LA class in noise level. They are more like the Sturgeon class in noise level or even worse. The reason is that they are too small. Shilao's podcast mentioned about skipping a generation is need for 095. So, PLAN has to do a 2 generation leap (like H20 vs H6K) order to just get something close to be as quiet as the current Virginia class (if I'm being optimistic) or between LA/Virginia class (if I'm being pessimistic). Either way, 095 project is extremely important. Note how 093A class is the only current PLAN class of vessels to not have been mass produced? Even the 094 class has at least 6 in service by now and probably more, so that they can keep at least 2 boats in patrol at all time. That tells me they think they can protect 094s while it's out on patrol and it will be equipped with JL-3 missiles with global range and maybe 3 warhead per missile (please correct me here if others have better info). 094s are also a little quieter than 093 series. 1 can operate out of Bohai and the other can operate out of SCS area. If they have a 3rd/4th on patrol during state of emergency, they can put more in SCS and surrounding areas.

If we got back to Japan and its subs. It has 12 Soryu class and 9 Oyashio class in service. That's a lot of quality subs even if they are just conventional. These are all important subs to consider.

My read is that the Yuan class subs were great for the early 2010s, but China will need something more advanced for the late 2020s. The fact they don't have anything new indicates they don't think even the latest 039C is competitive with Soryu class. Certainly, HI Sutton doesn't list 039C to even be as good as Lada class. Still, expect Yuan to carry a big load in any conflict. There is not a major quantity advantage in Yuan/kilo vs Soryu/Oyashio class that I'd be comfortable with.

If one thing the Ukraine conflict tells us. It would be that numbers do matter. Russia suffered in the start of the war, because it simply did not have enough soldiers for the wide frontier that it opened up. Over time, it narrowed the scope of its attack and is now finding success. The other thing is just how much munitions it stored up and how much that is helping. Despite reports of running low on munitions, it is still somehow able to continue with missile strikes 4 months into the war and has seemingly endless amount of artillery firepower. NATO countries can't supply Ukraine with enough artillery rounds from their inventory to even get within 10% of Russia's shelling. That is how much Russians have stored up.

When it comes to PLA, the desire for quantity is there. We've seen a huge expansion in 054A and 052D in the past couple of years as the security situation worsened in the region. Once a war start, you really can't count on your shipyard delivering new ships until after the war is over. So, you basically spend 2 decades building up your navy hoping that it can last through a very high intensity conflict. As I said, the need for a lot more Z-20F and Y-9Q is there. Looks like they already have at least 20 Y-8Qs. Keep in mind that Japan has about 70 MPA for ASW missions. As such, PLAN probably needs 100 Y-8/9Qs in service. It will probably need 200 Z-20s (of various type, mostly Z-20F) on deck carriers/075/076/055/052Ds and even to fly off 054A/056 helipad. It goes without saying that they also need more J20s, J16s, KJ500s, Y20Us, H6K variants and H20s (whenever they become available). If they truly think the risk of a confrontation is high, then the production level needs to be higher.

They need more quality submarines. There are shockingly few submarines now with only about 30 Yuan/kilo that are large and reasonably quiet. They are not as quiet as Virginia class or the Japanese subs, but they can still be very useful. Being able to flood SCS and ECS and westpac up to Guam with sea gliders and underwater sonar network is well worth the investment. Again, you spend years building this up hoping that you might 1 day be able to use it.

They have need to really build up their missiles inventory/ground based missiles launchers. Already been a huge point of emphasis, but you really can never have enough. They need to continue to put ABM units into service domestically to give time for retaliation in the unfortunate event of a nuclear exchange. I don't want to talk more about this.

The other need is to reduce quantity on the other end. The obvious way right now is to build up enough missile arsenal to target all the relevant military bases in Japan/North Mariana Islands and possibly even Palau and Wake, so they can keep USAF from using them and USN from getting replenished there.

The other way is to try to keep Japan out of the war. At the current time, all indication is that Japan would join America in any conflict against China, because they are treating a hegemonic China as an existential threat that they can't tolerate. Keeping Japan out of the war means having to deal with 100 to 150 fewer F-35, 20 fewer advanced diesel submarines, fewer advanced advanced warships and just fewer air bases to target. Even if Japan is willing to restrict its involvement to just providing bases in Ryukus, it would be of huge benefit to China.

This is where having control of SCS/Malacca Strait really matters. As we know, Japan depends 100% on oil important and it is basically the last country to move to EVs. The vast majority of its oil import comes from the Middle East. Which means, its economy really cannot afford to run without oil from the Middle East. As such, you need to show Japan that you can cut off its oil supply + destroy its large oil depot. While USN might be able to cut off China's SLOC to middle east, China can definitely cut off ships going through SCS to Japan and South Korea. That's what the carriers, SCS island expansion and facilities in Cambodia and maybe Myanmar would allow them to do. China has enough domestic oil production/strategic reserve + imports through Russia/Kazakhstan/Burma pipelines to run its economy if other imports are cut off. There will be enough EVs in the country where they can just not allow personal gas vehicles for the duration of the war.

Going back to Japan, there are 2 other directions where oil might come from. They could come from US/Venezuela on the east side, but it would be hard to replace all the oil coming from the Middle East. The only other way that Middle Eastern could get to Japan would be from south. If the oil tankers take long way around south of Indonesia, through Indonesia and then north between Philippines and Palau.

The ability of PLAN to operate safely on the East of Philippines at start of a conflict is very important. It is far enough from Japan that the diesel submarines would not be able to comfortably operate out there. It is also far enough from Japan that Japanese aerial assets would not be able to reach there. It is also close enough to North Marianas/Palau, where it can be part of the land/anti-ship attack against land/naval targets in those places. It would also allow them to protect a 094 operating outside of SCS. Again, this would allow for greater deterrence. Having naval fleet further out from the mainland also allow them to utilize midcourse ballistic missile interceptors. As such, it's critical that Philippines at least stay neutral. If Philippines is also willing to allow PLAAF to land ASW aircraft from there, it would be even better. Although, I doubt Philippines would want to be seen taking sides. Having a protective PLAN fleet out here would allow Chinese Coast Guard fleet to harass any oil tankers/ships heading to Japan. This would allow China to establish a semi-blockade of Japan without actually having to operate ships around Japan itself. It would also allow China to firmly blockade Taiwan and attack from the East of Taiwan. Again, it's very important they can operate their ASW aircraft and fuel tankers out here to keep their surface fleet safe from USN submarines. I would imagine they will face tremendous pressure from that front. it's inevitable they will lose a few ships.

If they can demonstrate the ability to blockade Japan, then they could keep Japan from being seriously involved. In which case, that would significantly decrease the number of advanced subs, air defense ships and aircraft to contend with. It would also significantly decrease the number of bases their missiles have to target and keep offline.

Pretty sure back then when 093Gs were made they were posts speculating it's about the same as 688i. Then again, all of this is just speculation as it's impossible to know relative noise officially.

I don't buy the argument that there being less of them means they're not good, sounds like some mental gymnastic. There's not that many Zumwalts or F-22s either, that doesn't mean they're "2 generations behind" normal platforms, it just means for cost, procurement or preference there just weren't many built.

094 should absolutely not be more silent than 093G. The 094s overall use pretty old technology, China mostly invests in SSKs not nuclear powered ones.

I'd buy that the Soryu SSKs are on par with China's, but there's around 2x more on Chinese side. That alone is not so comfortable because the Chinese SSKs will be running ragged trying to trap USN's huge submarine force already. However, drones could cover up the difference by acting as force multipliers on China's side.

Undersea war is primarily about finding the other party first. The 041 is as(or more) silent than a Virginia, but is much much slower, which means China needs to spread them out like a net and let USN subs drive into them rather than chase. The 093G can be as fast, but it will be detected first if running at full speed.

The issue with a net strategy is that there isn't enough SSKs to permanently cover large areas, which is where drones come in. Unmanned submarines can confuse the enemy on which subs are manned platforms and which are just decoys. When a submarine fires a torpedo, it becomes immensely easier to detect.

By flooding the area around the straits with unmanned subs along with a net of silent SSKs, China can effectively allow even older 093Gs to operate freely and utilise their superior speed, because any USN submarine brave enough to chase a 093G into the "net" will get caught, detected and sunk.

As long as there's enough SSKs and unmanned subs, China can ensure it is almost impossible to land on Taiwan island and to send shipping there.

Biscuits said:

Pretty sure back then when 093Gs were made they were posts speculating it's about the same as 688i. Then again, all of this is just speculation as it's impossible to know relative noise officially.

I don't buy the argument that there being less of them means they're not good, sounds like some mental gymnastic. There's not that many Zumwalts or F-22s either, that doesn't mean they're "2 generations behind" normal platforms, it just means for cost, procurement or preference there just weren't many built.

094 should absolutely not be more silent than 093G. The 094s overall use pretty old technology, China mostly invests in SSKs not nuclear powered ones.

I'd buy that the Soryu SSKs are on par with China's, but there's around 2x more on Chinese side. That alone is not so comfortable because the Chinese SSKs will be running ragged trying to trap USN's huge submarine force already. However, drones could cover up the difference by acting as force multipliers on China's side.

Undersea war is primarily about finding the other party first. The 041 is as(or more) silent than a Virginia, but is much much slower, which means China needs to spread them out like a net and let USN subs drive into them rather than chase. The 093G can be as fast, but it will be detected first if running at full speed.

The issue with a net strategy is that there isn't enough SSKs to permanently cover large areas, which is where drones come in. Unmanned submarines can confuse the enemy on which subs are manned platforms and which are just decoys. When a submarine fires a torpedo, it becomes immensely easier to detect.

By flooding the area around the straits with unmanned subs along with a net of silent SSKs, China can effectively allow even older 093Gs to operate freely and utilise their superior speed, because any USN submarine brave enough to chase a 093G into the "net" will get caught, detected and sunk.

As long as there's enough SSKs and unmanned subs, China can ensure it is almost impossible to land on Taiwan island and to send shipping there.

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After the original 093 came out, the updated noise charts from ONI also came out. You can just google "093 noise level chart" and you will see how bad they are. This is not speculation. They are really loud. The greatest improvement 093 made over 091 is just being a lot safer and having higher speed that can keep up with carrier fleet. In terms of noise level, the original 093s weren't that much better than 091s.

the 094s are a little better, because they are just larger and wider inside (which allows for more noise isolation mount to be installed). There has also been more investment into the 094s.

The Soryu SSKs are the quietest diesel subs in the world. They are at least as generation ahead of Yuan/Kilo. Yuan/Kilo are at about the most recent LA class in noise level based on the info I got.

The truth is that China is really far behind in submarine technology right now. Aside from nukes, there is no project as important to China as 095. The Yuan submarines were competitive when they first came out, but that was 15 years ago. Given how fast everything else progressed during the 5 years I stopped following PLA, I was really surprised when I saw no new class of conventional sub coming out since 2017. They've barely built any new ones in the recent years even as they are building more 054As after several years of non-activity.

So, with such disadvantages, China has to think about how it can move its fleet around while not getting completed exposed. That's why I stress the need for a lot of Z20s, Y-9Qs, more surface ships with TAS and a lot more underwater sea gliders. Why would they need to test sea gliders in Mariana Trench unless they don't dare to send submarines there. If you have a quiet modern submarine that can hunt other submarines, you would not need to be using sea gliders as much.

How might the PLAN use acoustic gliders? According to the PLAN researchers working on the project discussed in this article, they would be used to “complete tasks such as autonomous detection, tracking, attribute discrimination, and sending back information on moving targets in sensitive waters or areas of denial.” The program director, Rear Admiral Da Lianglong, likened them to a front-door “security system." One of his briefing slides from a 2019 presentation suggests that the PLAN intends to deploy them in the relatively quiet, deeper waters of the Philippine Sea and northern South China Sea, operationally-important areas where China lacks islands to build fixed undersea arrays.

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Chinese oceanographers have already deployed Haiyan gliders within the first island chain and beyond. A specially designed Haiyan variant (Haiyan-X) is capable of diving to tremendous depths, including the bottom of the Mariana Trench. Another variant (Haiyan-L) has been built for greater endurance, purportedly up to five months of continuous operations.

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They've deployed underwater sensors far into areas around Guam to pick up on USN submarine movement. Not really sure how effective that is. At best, this is probably something that they can use to help cue up helicopter searches.

I have to check with my sources on how helpful the sea gliders are. My guess is that they can help but you still need submarines or helicopters to more narrowly pin down the enemy submarine.
Do you see how difficult and important it is for PLAN to be putting sea gliders in Philippine Sea so they can operate around there? That area is not safe right now for PLAN surface fleet.

RottenPanzer said:

Would Russia just give up Snake Island like that to the Ukrainians to promote and boost their propaganda?
Or would Russia still make Snake Island as some sort of killing fields for Ukrainian forces whom will attempting to "reclaim" said island?

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I think Russia made key mistakes at the beginning of the war. It was not fully prepared for modern war. Some attacks here and there,no air superiority. Ukraine has full intelligence from NATO,which Russia lack. Very big lesson for China. Although nothing is certain during the course of war,China must be near to 100% well prepared n relatively certain for quick victory. Otherwise,one may not begin war. "Quick victory."

tphuang said:

After the original 093 came out, the updated noise charts from ONI also came out. You can just google "093 noise level chart" and you will see how bad they are. This is not speculation. They are really loud. The greatest improvement 093 made over 091 is just being a lot safer and having higher speed that can keep up with carrier fleet. In terms of noise level, the original 093s weren't that much better than 091s.

the 094s are a little better, because they are just larger and wider inside (which allows for more noise isolation mount to be installed). There has also been more investment into the 094s.

The Soryu SSKs are the quietest diesel subs in the world. They are at least as generation ahead of Yuan/Kilo. Yuan/Kilo are at about the most recent LA class in noise level based on the info I got.

The truth is that China is really far behind in submarine technology right now. Aside from nukes, there is no project as important to China as 095. The Yuan submarines were competitive when they first came out, but that was 15 years ago. Given how fast everything else progressed during the 5 years I stopped following PLA, I was really surprised when I saw no new class of conventional sub coming out since 2017. They've barely built any new ones in the recent years even as they are building more 054As after several years of non-activity.

So, with such disadvantages, China has to think about how it can move its fleet around while not getting completed exposed. That's why I stress the need for a lot of Z20s, Y-9Qs, more surface ships with TAS and a lot more underwater sea gliders. Why would they need to test sea gliders in Mariana Trench unless they don't dare to send submarines there. If you have a quiet modern submarine that can hunt other submarines, you would not need to be using sea gliders as much.

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They've deployed underwater sensors far into areas around Guam to pick up on USN submarine movement. Not really sure how effective that is. At best, this is probably something that they can use to help cue up helicopter searches.

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I have to check with my sources on how helpful the sea gliders are. My guess is that they can help but you still need submarines or helicopters to more narrowly pin down the enemy submarine.
Do you see how difficult and important it is for PLAN to be putting sea gliders in Philippine Sea so they can operate around there? That area is not safe right now for PLAN surface fleet.

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The 031s are likely ahead of LA class in terms of noise. Remember we don't see the insides. Given China's advanced in batteries and electric drive in the past 15 years, I'd be surprised if they had any moving parts when the diesel is off.

LA class needs a cooling pump and has mechanical shaft transmission with reduction gears, how can that be more silent than something with no moving parts except the motor shaft?

When AIP is running, a free piston Stirling engine has no rotary or frictional mechanical transmission. It is almost entirely noiseless. Even a piston Stirling engine only has a single piston and two rotary transmission, and no detonation/deflagration like a diesel or ICE.

For the battery portion, Japan isn't exactly leading edge in batteries or EV. The top tier batteries are from China - CATL and BYD.

The only advantage can be in shaping and acoustic dampening, but none of that is particularly new.

tphuang said:

Let's get something clear here. 093A aren't anywhere close to later LA class in noise level....

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Very interesting and insightful post. I do think though that you paint a more downbeat picture of the capability of PLAN submarines than my perceptions.
One thing I keep in mind when forming a view on the performance of different country's subs is that much of the established truths is built on reputation, not hard evidence. Most pundits that discuss submarine performance will not have sufficient data on various boats, and will need to rely on what others have said. Reputation is inherently subjective, and can lead to bias if there is too much herd-thinking and circular reporting. The PLAN is obviously more secretive than other countries regarding its submarine technology, and China is considered an adversary by the Anglo countries. Public-facing pundits generally downplay the capability of adversaries whenever there is a paucity of data to make more concrete judgements, because the audience likes to hear good news (just think how overly ridiculed Russian equipments currently are). Therefore, I think there is an inherent tendency to dismiss Chinese submarine capabilities that is not justified by what Western experts actually know with a reasonable degree of confidence.

tphuang said:

Let's get something clear here. 093A aren't anywhere close to later LA class in noise level. They are more like the Sturgeon class in noise level or even worse. The reason is that they are too small. Shilao's podcast mentioned about skipping a generation is need for 095. So, PLAN has to do a 2 generation leap (like H20 vs H6K) order to just get something close to be as quiet as the current Virginia class (if I'm being optimistic) or between LA/Virginia class (if I'm being pessimistic). Either way, 095 project is extremely important. Note how 093A class is the only current PLAN class of vessels to not have been mass produced?

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If by 093A, you are talking about the original pair of Type 093 boats launched between 2000-2002, I would agree they are nowhere near the noise level of the USN's 688i. But the later variants in the class are considered by many Western analysts to be a big improvement over the original 093 - and analogous to the 688i. These include high-rolling defence think tanks, e.g. CSIS and Centre for New American Security. I do not necessarily believe they have hard info on actual noise levels of the later 093 variants, but probably made these assessments based on technological developments. So, it is probably fair to say most of the Shang class are somewhat competitive - at least coming close to the 688i. The 688i is of course by no means a world-leading SSN nowadays, and is not representative of the improved capabilities of the newest USN SSNs.

tphuang said:

My read is that the Yuan class subs were great for the early 2010s, but China will need something more advanced for the late 2020s. The fact they don't have anything new indicates they don't think even the latest 039C is competitive with Soryu class. Certainly, HI Sutton doesn't list 039C to even be as good as Lada class. Still, expect Yuan to carry a big load in any conflict. There is not a major quantity advantage in Yuan/kilo vs Soryu/Oyashio class that I'd be comfortable with.
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They need more quality submarines. There are shockingly few submarines now with only about 30 Yuan/kilo that are large and reasonably quiet. They are not as quiet as Virginia class or the Japanese subs, but they can still be very useful. Being able to flood SCS and ECS and westpac up to Guam with sea gliders and underwater sonar network is well worth the investment. Again, you spend years building this up hoping that you might 1 day be able to use it.

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I don't know the exact wording HI Sutton used to make the call that the 039C is not even as good as the Lada class (was he actually that specific?). Hard data on the noise levels of SSKs are rare and are difficult to compare, and much depends on the speed of the boat at the time of measurement. But there are good reasons to believe the 039C (and even the 039B) is better than the Lada. For example, the AIP on the Lada has been discarded due to delays in the fuel-cell AIP research, and the Russian government is choosing to build more of the Improved Kilo II instead of mass producing the Lada. In general, I think the 039A, B and C have important advantages over Russian SSKs - the Yuans are much more suitable for open ocean deployment due to the presence of flank array sonars and an overall larger pressure hull, compared to boats like the Kilos.
I do not have a strong view on how the later Yuans compare to the Japanese SSKs, but I do think there is an ingrained belief in the West that Japanese subs are very good, and this belief disguises the nuances in an unhelpful way. The later Soryus and the Taigei are likely to be very quiet and capable. But the early boats like the Oyashios do not have fairly basic stuff like X-rudder or AIP, let alone lithium-ion. The early Soryus are also known to be easily detected by the MPAs of the USN. In contrast to the Japanese, the Chinese SSKs do not hold the same reputation, even though strictly speaking the people shaping these views do not have enough information to make a strict comparison. So there is a certain bias in how people view Japanese subs versus Chinese ones. I would be somewhat surprised if the Oyashios and the early Soryus are actually significantly more capable than the later Yuans.
I agree that SSKs like the Yuan and Kilo will still be very useful, regardless of your views on how they compare with opposing boats. To reinforce your point, there are multiple episodes during joint exercises between the USN and the Indian Navy, where the Indian Kilo I boats managed to 'sink' the 688i of the USN. One should not overlook the inherent silence of a SSK running on electric battery power. China has obviously imported the Improved Kilo, which is a step above India's basic Kilo I, so we should consider China to be even better placed than India to counter the relatively aged USN nuclear subs, like the 688i.

Lastly, I recall the incident on the 26 October 2006, when a Song class SSK surfaced undetected in the middle of a USN carrier group on exercise, and within 9 km of the Kitty Hawk supercarrier. This should have had a greater influence on Western views on Chinese submarines than it atcually did, I think. If a Chinese diesel boat designed in the 1990s can ambush a well-defended US carrier like that, what then would the 039Bs and 039Cs be capable of?

FairAndUnbiased said:

The 031s are likely ahead of LA class in terms of noise. Remember we don't see the insides. Given China's advanced in batteries and electric drive in the past 15 years, I'd be surprised if they had any moving parts when the diesel is off.

LA class needs a cooling pump and has mechanical shaft transmission with reduction gears, how can that be more silent than something with no moving parts except the motor shaft?

When AIP is running, a free piston Stirling engine has no rotary or frictional mechanical transmission. It is almost entirely noiseless. Even a piston Stirling engine only has a single piston and two rotary transmission, and no detonation/deflagration like a diesel or ICE.

For the battery portion, Japan isn't exactly leading edge in batteries or EV. The top tier batteries are from China - CATL and BYD.

The only advantage can be in shaping and acoustic dampening, but none of that is particularly new.

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Typo here, should be 039s, not 031s. The point is the same, there is no mechanism by which a diesel electric sub of equal shaping sophistication can be louder than an SSN because it simply has less moving parts overall.

This is getting OT but I think a lot of people are basing their assessment of PLAN nuclear subs on some pretty fundamentally wrong info and assumptions - primarily that China has been working on the 093 ever since the 091 came out.

They were bitterly disappointed by the original 093 because of how little progress was made in all those decades and formed a massively pessimistic projected future expected level of improvement by simply drawing a straight line between those two data points to extend that into the future.

However, the key thing to remember is that the PLAN essentially gave up on nuclear subs for a very long time after the 091 and 092 classes as both economically and technologically unattainable.

Given the decades that lapsed until any serious work was done again in the field, the 093 and 094 were essentially starting from scratch as much of the prior knowledge from the 091 and 092 classes had been lost by then.

However, if one were to draw a line between the 091 and 093 classes and measure progress with the 093 as the starting point, the progress made is actually not that much less remarkable than what China has achieved in all other fields. Rather than being the exception, it was just the baseline that was set wrong by which to measure progress.

One thing to bare in mind, which should lend a lot of substance to all those speculation is actually the lack of progress and huge orders in the SSK field compared to the rest of the PLAN. China has built plenty of big and expensive experimental SSKs, but the PLAN hasn’t pulled the trigger on any of them.

What the PLAN has done is pour a huge amount of money into vastly expanding their nuclear sub production capacity at Huludao shipyard where all their nuclear subs are built.

The PLA doesn’t buy lemons, so if they are putting all their submarine eggs in the nuclear basket, that gives me great confidence that the 095 is going to be something special.