J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VIII

TK3600

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
plawolf said:
I think that depends entirely on the type of weapon in question. For land based systems like tanks, IFVs, artillery, that’s entirely plausible if not understated, but I don’t think the ratio would be that high for top-end assets like heavy fighters and heavy warships etc.

I think one additional factor to consider for what peak production might look like for fighters is to look at the existing pilot to aircraft ratio. Because fighters are useless without pilots, and pilots are by far the bigger bottleneck to rapid and massive fleet expansion.

If the pilot to plane ration is 2-1, then I think it would be safe to assume that peacetime production rate is around 50%.

I know that with ejection seats, you would expect a reasonable percentage of pilots to survive shoot downs to be able to go back into rotation. But you also need to consider the potential delay with new pilots coming online, and I don’t think you want to be in a situation with significantly more planes than pilots in a peer v peer fight, since a large build up of such high value assets being stationary for too long would make for obvious targets for opfor that could result in significant damage if they can hit them.

Obviously there are a ton of other factors to consider, but I think this would be a reasonable ballpark figure on balance without doing a dissertation level analysis.
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Not unless there is also a 'unmobilized pilot production capacity'. For all we know training school could train 2x faster to match 2x faster planes. Perhaps school instructors can train 10 per class, but only do 5 in peace. Or the instructor assistant had competency to promote into instructor you get 2x the instructors. You know what I mean.
 
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defenceman

Junior Member
Registered Member
TK3600 said:
Not unless there is also a 'unmobilized pilot production capacity'. For all we know training school could train 2x faster to match 2x faster planes. Perhaps school instructors can train 10 per class, but only do 5 in peace. Or the instructor assistant had competency to promote into instructor you get 2x the instructors. You know what I mean.
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Hi,
is there a possibility for retiring somewhat late, may be the very first or second batch
of J20 pilots if they are eligible to retire now may be a little late of around 4/5 years of
timeline can help the new ones to reach to the certain level of competency
thank you
 
by78

by78

General
Re-posting a lost image.

54106719371_6a90a88058_o.jpg
 
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test1979

Junior Member
Registered Member
It's a shame that the J-20 production rate may be close to full capacity. Chengfei's turnover growth rate in 2023 has dropped from more than 20% per year for many years to 10%. This may be the reason why the Air Force received the J-35A. Chengfei can no longer meet the Air Force's production capacity requirements for the 4th generation aircraft.

Chengfei turnover statistics over the years
2017
20 billion yuan
2018
No official data source
2019
30 billion yuan
2020
41.1 billion yuan
2021
55 billion yuan
2022
67.2 billion yuan
2023
74.9 billion yuan


Chengfei turnover sources in the past two years
j20cost2.png
 
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