J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VIII
- Thread starter Blitzo
- Start date
Wow ... I totally missed, that after the three confirmed J-20S (J-20AS/J-20B ??) twin-seater - known are the numbers 2031, 2032 & 2033 - Huitong has updated his site with a fourth one numbered 2036!
And usually, there should be a no. 2035 too.
(Image via Huitong's CMA-Blog)
And usually, there should be a no. 2035 too.
(Image via Huitong's CMA-Blog)
Keep in mind that CAC itself is undergoing large scale factory expansion that has only completed recently. The new facilities are likely to be more automated than ever before so it would need to hire more skilled labors needed to operate them.
The supply chain expansion also takes several years to complete. As I previously stated, the meta material capacity expansion with expand 10 fold over next 4 to 6 years. The main suppliers of carbon fiber to PLA also just got its latest T700/T800 into production and is rapidly adding capacity. I would assume similar expansion are in place for the engine producers, the radar producers, the power semiconductor producers. You can go check their expansion plan and revenue growth projections to see this.
Looks like this one is still on WS-10C?
Only some 205Xs have WS-15's no?
Yes, but since the J-20S prototypes are now using the reshaped radome and feature other details more akin to the J-20A, I think it is highly likely the J-20S - then maybe as the J-20AS or even J-20B - will use WS-15 engines too.
Another thing to consider for CAC is that they also have a large civilian division that produces parts for modern airliner. We cannot draw conclusions on their J-20 production based on revenue alone.
But one interesting part is that it's revenue increased from 41B in 2020 (when it produced like 15 J-20s and maybe 30 J-10s) to 75B in 2023 (when it produced like 70 J-20s and 10-15 J-10CEs?). So the difference for about 50 J-20s is < 35B RMB (assuming some increase in civilian side of things + maintenance and support for fighter jet also). you might be looking at most $4B (but probably quite a bit less than) for 50 J-20s -> at most $80m per J-20s. I had put the price of each J-20 at around $75m. I think that's general ball park.
Which can be lowered further to like $65m if they can increase produce to 150 a year or more.