General Atomics recently claimed (if not boasted) that their factory will be able to produce CCAs at a rate of one airframe every two days (i.e. 182.5 airframes per year), and one airframe per day (i.e. 365 airframes per year) after expansion.
Given that Chengdu AC is already capable of rolling out ~100 twin-engine J-20s per year, and that LockMart is capable of producing 150+ single-engine F-35s per year (at full-rate production) - CCA-type UCAVs that are comparably smaller and less complex than manned fighters should be consiserably easier and cheaper to build.
And given China's present state of advanced manufacturing prowess, no doubt China will certainly be able to match if not surpass that proclaimed production capability.
In the near future, we could actually see future combat warplanes being made like how our cars are being made today.
In the meantime, besides the J-20, J-16 and Sino-CCA, there are definitely way greater demands for such metamaterials from the likes of J-31/35, flying wing U(C)AVs (GJ-11, CH-7, Sky Hawk etc), H-20 and even the Sino-NGAD.
Until I see actual production I don't believe them. US claims about production are simply not credible until delivery is at least somewhat verified by other sources. Therefore, I believe that trying to extrapolate production from any US numbers is an exercise in failure. There's been a
lot of projects involving automation, assembly, or really any form of scaled production that United States has had huge issues with.
Even with relatively "simple" goods like batteries, US manufacturers (where US military industrial might is ultimately sourced from) have repeatedly failed to scale up production to produce "meaningful" numbers. The most successful EV manufacturer in US, Tesla, took years to to scale up production after
a lot of trial and error. They ultimately had to cut down on some of their automation ambitions and hire more workers.
In fact, in that sense, it'd be a lot more useful to look at history, scaling, and final productivity in Tesla's Shanghai factory vs Tesla's Austin site in order to gain some measure of insight of US vs China's productivity in scaling manufacturing. Then compare Tesla Austin vs US Auto manufacturers (inlcuding ICE car factories), and try to derive some meaningful insights into US manufacturing.
After having done all that we should look at current US aerospace production. Not just the disasterclass of Lockheed's F-35 upgrades, but Boeing's Eagle progress, Lockheed's own F-16 production, various drone programs, and so on and so forth.
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Either way, while there are useful insights and things we can glean from US production, I don't think there's actually much that we can use as a point of reference for predicting China's production or capability.
From my perspective, as a
Western viewer, I also cannot comment on how good China's production capability is when it comes to 5th gen platforms and so on. From a raw numbers perspective, it's certainly impressive that China can manufactur 100 5th gen jets a year. However, there's a lot of opacity. Chengdu's floor space has increased significantly, but why should I believe that Chengdu will increase its production to 150/Year instead of 200 or 250 J-20s per year?
Or, conversely, are there reasons or possibilities where Chengdu only increases production to 120/Year?
I haven't read every single post of every J-20 thread, but I think I've made reasonable efforts to go back and read most of the pertinent information.
