J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VIII

[Blitzo]

I think the usefulness of trying to extrapolate production of J-20, and other stealth products by tracking materials production and floor space is a difficult endeavour.

Ultimately I consider the evidence to be circumstantial at best, and while it is interesting, the assumptions needed to validate the conclusions seem multiple steps too far.

However I think we can also be confident that stealthy aircraft and weapons are likely to have grown considerably and likely to continue growing, but putting a relative or absolute number on it, relative to the past, would be tough to defend.

 

[HighGround]

But ultimately it is a useful indicator even if some of the inferences... are a little too extreme IMO. No?

 

[Blitzo]

But ultimately it is a useful indicator even if some of the inferences... are a little too extreme IMO. No?

As I said, they are interesting. However I think there should be substantial, substantial caution as to what if any conclusions can be extrapolated out.

 

[taxiya]

A more traditional RAM producer in China is Huaqin Technology (华秦科技)

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So this is clearly spelt out as stealth material, rather than meta material.
Their production figure isn't as easy to find out, but looks like their revenue is also going up exponentially. Based on the description of their R&D efforts, looks like they are mostly just selling stealth material at this point.

One point I forgot earlier is that stealth layer does need replacement. As such, some of the production is simply used to replace and fix up the older stuff that lost its characteristics. As J-20/35 fleet get larger, more of the production will be for maintenance vs new aircraft.

From reading the document it seems to me that this company is specialized in high-temeprature and Anticorrosion radar and IR stealth material such as on the engines. They are not meta material based, at least for now, so they need to be replaced regularly. However, I have read that meta material is also trying to get into these areas.

I think the meta material based stealth layer on most part of the aircraft does not need replacement, but the layer on the nozzles need replacement in a quite short time interval. Also the pre-gen-3 meta material is limited in size so many areas of the skin is not meta material, they also need to be replaced regularly.

 

[latenlazy]

Stealth material is not just RAM paint though. I recall that one CCTV documentary showed stealth material membrane under the skin of the plane that had metallic looking disks on it.

That’s a meta material.

From reading the document it seems to me that this company is specialized in high-temeprature and Anticorrosion radar and IR stealth material such as on the engines. They are not meta material based, at least for now, so they need to be replaced regularly. However, I have read that meta material is also trying to get into these areas.

I think the meta material based stealth layer on most part of the aircraft does not need replacement, but the layer on the nozzles need replacement in a quite short time interval. Also the pre-gen-3 meta material is limited in size so many areas of the skin is not meta material, they also need to be replaced regularly.

Maybe a place for ceramics based metamaterials one day.

 

[tphuang]

That’s a meta material.

Maybe a place for ceramics based metamaterials one day.

Ceramics production and demand is both going down. Don't think that's the future direction.

As I said, they are interesting. However I think there should be substantial, substantial caution as to what if any conclusions can be extrapolated out.

What do you mean by extrapolated out?

The production capacity based on the current projection is going up like 10 to 15x. Their current production rate for stealth aircraft is 70 to 100 a year. I don't think I'm suggesting they are going to do 1000 a year. That would be entirely crazy.

I don't expect them to be at 100% capacity in production. That's not sustainable longer term. 50 to 60% operational capacity during peace time is fine.

I don't think the weight of what they will use per J-20 will increase all that much, if at all, because they seem to use quite a bit already.

But can they produce 200 stealth fighter jet per year + quite a few UCAVs? Maybe the demand for UCAV is way higher than what we estimated so far.

I generally, don't have an issue with massively increasing supply chain capacity ahead of time. Since that gives flexibility to production ramp up and lowers cost.

 

[Blitzo]

What do you mean by extrapolated out?

The production capacity based on the current projection is going up like 10 to 15x. Their current production rate for stealth aircraft is 70 to 100 a year. I don't think I'm suggesting they are going to do 1000 a year. That would be entirely crazy.

I don't expect them to be at 100% capacity in production. That's not sustainable longer term. 50 to 60% operational capacity during peace time is fine.

I don't think the weight of what they will use per J-20 will increase all that much, if at all, because they seem to use quite a bit already.

But can they produce 200 stealth fighter jet per year + quite a few UCAVs? Maybe the demand for UCAV is way higher than what we estimated so far.

I generally, don't have an issue with massively increasing supply chain capacity ahead of time. Since that gives flexibility to production ramp up and lowers cost.

My feeling is that it is better to avoid stating numbers and expressing "aerospace products requiring stealth materials has/may see significant increases of production capacity" is a much more defensible position without relying on assumptions that may or may not be true.

 

[latenlazy]

Ceramics production and demand is both going down. Don't think that's the future direction.

There are ceramics based metamaterials for RF applications that might make sense for hot sections. Also uhh CMCs are going to be important for a lot of aerospace applications.

 

[tphuang]

My feeling is that it is better to avoid stating numbers and expressing "aerospace products requiring stealth materials has/may see significant increases of production capacity" is a much more defensible position without relying on assumptions that may or may not be true.

I think based on CAC factory expansion + this, 150 J-20s a year will happen in another 3 years.

And I also think large UCAV production is about to get started.

I had expected them to continue producing J-20s at about 100 a year, but this to me seems like a concerted effort by PLA to dramatically increase the size of their stealth aircraft force. I think all the J-10A and J-11A units will get replaced by the end of this decade.

 

[iewgnem]

I remeber hearing from Xi Yazhou's youtube talk that it is China's practice of setting up production capacity in peace time according to wartime demand. He was talking about China's "excessive" artillery ammunition production capacity.

One interesting thing about China's massive adoption of industrial robots and automation is, human workers need to be paid regardless if he/she does anything, and human loses skill if idled for too long, while an unpowered and sealed robot require no maintenance, consume no energy and do not forget its programming.

So for things that reach high level of automation, like ammo, shells, missiles, drones, it does not actually cost very much to reserve large surge capacity, especially with China both operates and installs more than half of all robots on the planet.