Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

1. The tabling of the 2022 Taiwan Policy Bill has been delayed until September 2022, which is just half a month away. Till then, I believe that at the very least, we are afforded with half a month of peace in the Western Pacific. Once September arrives and the bill is tabled in the Congress, we shall see how that goes. Whether China thinks that they finally have had enough, and decides to act with AR could depend on the progress of the 2022 Bill.

2. President Xi Jinping is scheduled to have a state visit to Saudi Arabia, which is the first overseas trip by Xi since the COVID-19 pandemic began. I do wonder what are the agendas that China would bring with their Saudi counterparts be like in the following days, and how those agenda would be impacting the geopolitics in Asia and around the world in general for the foreseeable future.

3. There has been no updates on further movements of PLAGF troops and vehicles around the coastal regions of Fujian Province ever since civilian footages of them appeared right before Pelosi's visit. Does anyone know whether those PLAGF troops and vehicles are still in Xiamen/along the coastal regions, or have they been transported back to their bases further inland? Same goes for several of those civilian RORO ships that sailed towards Xiamen at that time.

Tsai's support rate down 7% in latest poll compared to previous month.

Abominable said:

No...I think it is only needed as long as China needs to import from the west. Exports to the west should be limited in value to imports from the west.

In fact that's why I think we are seeing these COVID lockdowns in China but nowhere else. The trade deficit has grown too big and it's a way to reduce exports to the west without the political fallout of sanctions. It's better to reduce economic output than to produce things for America only for the dollar payments to be frozen and seized.

China's also big enough now that if it's economy slows down, so does America and the rest of the world. Win win.

Taking only RMB as a form of payment is something @ZeEa5KPul has said in the past. The problem with it is doesn't solve the problem of China exports a lot to the west but importing little. The only way for the west to generate yuan is to export something to China, either directly or indirectly.

America, Canada and Australia would be fine but Europe would be screwed.
though. Sportswear, western brands of cars, wine and spirits. All have Chinese or non western alternatives yet bring in billions upon billions of dollars of revenue for western companies.

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I would look at it as the overall trade balance rather than just the trade balance with the West.
So you have to take into account regions where China has a trade deficit like ASEAN, South Korea and the Middle East.

The point is to create as large an economic zone as possible, as this reduces the overall disruption to the Chinese and the overall global economy.

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And remember the other way that countries can generate RMB is when Chinese companies make [investments or acquisitions] in foreign countries.
As long as these are in friendly countries, China holding these assets is not an issue.

FriedButter said:

Well. He still insists that Russia is getting obliterated and they will soon be stalled in Ukraine like a week ago. Pretty sure it’s been like that since it first started. One goalpost shift to another goalpost.

Not sure whose he is trying to convince with his nonsense that keeps being continuously proven wrong from China to Russia etc. Keeps trying to shovel propaganda sources expecting everyone to believe it.

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If Ukraine losing territory and getting smaller as a country is ‘winning’, I’d hate to see what losing looks like.

name said:

If Ukraine losing territory and getting smaller as a country is ‘winning’, I’d hate to see what losing looks like.

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This reminds me of this meme at the start of the war.


Still I didn't expect Ukraine to go as far as to implementing volksturme level of tactics.

Has this been posted before? Apparently, they flew near Penghu but the Island claims they are lying.

FriedButter said:

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Has this been posted before? Apparently, they flew near Penghu but the Island claims they are lying.

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They also claimed that the missiles didn't pass over Taiwan, and that the ships never entered territorial waters, etc.

siegecrossbow said:

They also claimed that the missiles didn't pass over Taiwan, and that the ships never entered territorial waters, etc.

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Some people have pointed out that the Taiwan officials are highly similar to the West in telling lies and slandering others without scruples.
This is a powerful example of their serious influence by the West.
With their control of media tools, they can be irresponsible without fear.

zhangjim said:

Some people have pointed out that the Taiwan officials are highly similar to the West in telling lies and slandering others without scruples.
This is a powerful example of their serious influence by the West.
With their control of media tools, they can be irresponsible without fear.

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This is also exacerbated by desperation, e.g. western media on Ukraine war

siegecrossbow said:

They also claimed that the missiles didn't pass over Taiwan, and that the ships never entered territorial waters, etc.

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Expect the same level of Ukranian BS if China decide to attack Taiwan.