"Even though no Chinese missiles managed to hit Taiwan, all Taiwanese military sites have been destroyed. Independent experts are blaming saboteurs"
Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
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Nothing we don't already know, but just to hammer the point once more...
How PLA military drills around Taiwan weaken the US’ Indo-Pacific strategy
- In simulating a blockade of Taiwan, Beijing took advantage of a rare strategic window of opportunity to seize the geopolitical upper hand, striking at the heart of US influence in the region
This is pay walled, can someone post the article itself?
I am not denying there are die hard nationalists who will not change no matter the situation, or that they occupy the majority in the present (they do, sadly), I just don't think they will make up the majority in 20-30 years.
As I said I am merely hoping though, and you are correct that basically every sign does not point to any potential for positive change.
A lot of things we can say and discuss, really just too many.
Just pulling shit outta mah skinny ass here.
1. Taiwan has never been weaker vis-à-vis mainland China.
2. This random blockade to be done at will whenever mainland China feels like it, that is real power, military power, which gives mainland China the upper hand, as the article mentions.
3. This gray-zone warfare works. It probably all started with those two colonels writing that book unrestricted warfare back in the day.
4. The entire chessboard is moving, around the world, all at the same time.
5. What other cards do the Americans have to play? Trade war card, Huawei/Meng Wanzhou card, semiconductor card, Taiwan card, they tried playing them all. What cards are left?
6. When the entire chessboard is moving, and you're running out of cards to play, someone is in deep shit.
7. The United States still intends to do their FNOPs. The problem with that, is there is no military value. China will not yield anything with respects to the random blockades and patrols PLAN and PLAAF are doing around Taiwan.
8. For some reason, on this current day and foreseeable future, China seems to have maximum flexibility on what it can or wants to do next. China has global interests. It will be interesting to watch where in the world China decides to further their diplomacy.
Blah, blah, blah.
Article from DW comparing the 4th Taiwan Crisis to the 2nd Taiwan Crisis. The author claims that Mao's goal for kicking off the 823 artillery duel was not to take over Kinmen, but rather to make China a player in the Cold War, in particular a contest with the Soviet Union for supremacy within the communist world by being bold and making a move.
To which I say wow, it took you 66 years to figure this out?
The author then links this with the current 4th Taiwan Crisis saying similar to the 2nd crisis, this current crisis is a play by China to declare hegemony over her sphere of influence. A Chinese Monroe Doctrine. This crisis is not really aimed at Taiwan but rather to upset the US dominated order post the Cold War by showing basically "in my part of the globe I can blockade whoever I want whenever I want and there's not a thing you can do about it" while not engaged in direct conflict with the US, with the ultimate aim of establishing G2.
While I think this guy is on point, I want to also say they should really check him for being a secret CPC agent. Because implicitly is he not saying instead of bullying Taiwan, what China did this time was a direct challenge to US hegemony and US was too weak to do anything about it as it happened.
That's quite the seditious thought.
How Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan set off a new wave of US-China electronic warfare
- PLA eyes in the sky and at sea sought to track the aircraft carrying the US House speaker
- US reconnaissance aircraft detected over waters near Taiwan during PLA war games after trip, Beijing think tank says
Topic | FOLLOWING
Published: 6:03am, 14 Aug, 2022
As much as we don't really trust articles written by Minnie Chen, I still have a few questions about this article.
1. Who is this "Hu Yuan Ming" dude saying that 055's radar ranges are far shorter than 500km? Any credible journals or essay (ideally peer-reviewed) written by him that you guys came across?
2. On the night when Pelosi's aircraft circled around the South China Sea and approached Taiwan from the Philippine Sea, did the 055 (Yan'an 106, I think) cross the Bashi Strait and already positioned itself East of Taitung (or in position to track Pelosi's plane)?
3. "A source" to Minnie Chan saying that the electronics on J-16Ds and 055s were jammed by the US Navy. I remember reading Minnie's previous articles citing unnamed sources from the MOD. Wonder what her background is (her last name sounds like a typical HKer as opposed to well-connected folks from Mainland, but I could be wrong).
4. This is not the first RFI Chinese language version reported on undisclosed crises. Back in 2021, it was RFI that reported Beijing threatening to fly fighter planes into Taiwan's airspace should Kelly Craft land in Taiwan during the last days of the Trump Administration. But this article claimed to cite Apple Daily. Now RFI cites Minnie's article. So...hmmm...
I am not surprised if RFI or Apple Daily posts article deliberately aiming to downplay PLA's capabilities in instill lack of confidence in China. However, SCMP is generally neutral and less politically charged. Again, we should be skeptical of Minnie's "sources" from the PRC MOD. Yet, if we do not see major production of the J-16Ds (or start seeing major renovations/reconstructions of the 346 radars on 055s and 052Ds), then the issues described in this article could be true. And that would be concerning as it could embolden Washington to permanently keep Taiwan separate (as analysts in Pentagon would perceive PLA's electronic warfare as rudimentary).
Interesting perspective, so in exchange for Pelosi's 15 minutes of fame, China was able to demonstrate a hegemonistic claim in its regional backyard that basically went unchallenged or was not likewise immediately challengable by the current global hegemon... if so, thats certainly not an even exchange... Biden could have put a stop to this but didnt, and so at first I just assumed the reason must have been US was going full scale war immediately no matter what.... turns out there was no 5D Chess?!?
Lol its almost as laughable as Indian claims about su30s finding j20s.
First, Pelosi's plane didn't switch off its transponder so why would tracking it be hard?
China decided to not send planes because if the planes don't shoot her down, its pointless to send them anyways. There were no planes in the air and especially not J16s during the visit itself.
If US have successfully leapfrogged Chinese EW power, then why make a huge loop around the 9 dash line with Pelosi's plane meant to avoid every regularly deployed PLAN asset? Why the failure to send the Reagan anywhere close to Chinese territory? Why no assistance to ROC about the government forces that are sliding up just alongside them?
If anything, it's western ISR capability who should be questioned even more than before, since day after day, rebel forces released hilariously inaccurate maps of where government forces were sailing and flying, showcasing highly lacking situation awareness. And these are rebels supposedly aided by Western ISR.
Any chances the J-16Ds could be blinded as they tried to get closer to Pelosi's aircraft? It is one thing to view the transponder on the open Internet. It is another thing to relay the timely information on the open web to PLA forces operating on the frontline, which are likely only connected to the PLA's internal networks to minimize hacking by adversaries on the open net. Or...if the 055s and J-16D have separate onboard PCs that are connected to the open web to track Pelosi's plane?
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