Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

supercat · Oct 23, 2022

Phead128 said:
The military-types think of every possible contingency, it's their job to think of every possible scenario, however unlikely, but do not represent mainstream or political elite opinions.

My personal opinion is that there are indeed hawks in the U.S. regime who want to goad China into a premature war over the Taiwan Strait, because they are anxious that time is not on their side. But China is unlikely to bite, as George Yeo comments;

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584132133488300033

Minm · Oct 23, 2022

Phead128 said:
US does not want war with a near peer that can actually fight back. US just wants a large boogeyman to justify ever larger defense spending. Too bad Ukraine is a near black-hole in terms of spending/weapons aid/support, so it's in China's best interest for Russia to keep going (successfully) to draw resources away from China/Asia-Pacific region.

The military-types think of every possible contingency, it's their job to think of every possible scenario, however unlikely, but do not represent mainstream or political elite opinions.

Maybe the rational ones don't want a war, but America is a prisoner to its own political system. They cannot compromise as this is interpreted as weakness and unacceptable loss of face. The currently planned Taiwan policy act would change the name of the embassy to Taiwan representative office, declare them a major non NATO ally, it would permit the showing of the Republic of China flag and allow meetings between top government officials. It would also include selling/donating some weapons. There is also a provision for joint exercises or even stationing troops there, modelled after the US military advisory group Thailand, which involved tens of thousands of soldiers who were based in Thailand

The arms deliveries aren't really a problem, China can deal with it. But if the name of the embassy is changed, China will be forced to either accept that countries can now have official relations both with Taiwan and China, dropping the one China policy, or China will have to suspend diplomatic relations with the United States. Taiwan may also be emboldened and invite American "advisors" and "trainers" onto the island.

Once the American ambassador has been expelled and the PLA is holding another exercise around the island, the risk of war is very high. It's a bit similar to how nobody wanted a world war before WW1, but they just slid into it. Neither China nor the US want a major war, but if no side can comprise, war becomes more likely. If this act passes without amendment, we could see a severing of US-China diplomatic relations this year and a plan for a joint Taiwan US military exercise next year.

How can China react without immediate invasion?

TK3600 · Oct 23, 2022

Minm said:
Maybe the rational ones don't want a war, but America is a prisoner to its own political system. They cannot compromise as this is interpreted as weakness and unacceptable loss of face. The currently planned Taiwan policy act would change the name of the embassy to Taiwan representative office, declare them a major non NATO ally, it would permit the showing of the Republic of China flag and allow meetings between top government officials. It would also include selling/donating some weapons. There is also a provision for joint exercises or even stationing troops there, modelled after the US military advisory group Thailand, which involved tens of thousands of soldiers who were based in Thailand

The arms deliveries aren't really a problem, China can deal with it. But if the name of the embassy is changed, China will be forced to either accept that countries can now have official relations both with Taiwan and China, dropping the one China policy, or China will have to suspend diplomatic relations with the United States. Taiwan may also be emboldened and invite American "advisors" and "trainers" onto the island.

Once the American ambassador has been expelled and the PLA is holding another exercise around the island, the risk of war is very high. It's a bit similar to how nobody wanted a world war before WW1, but they just slid into it. Neither China nor the US want a major war, but if no side can comprise, war becomes more likely. If this act passes without amendment, we could see a severing of US-China diplomatic relations this year and a plan for a joint Taiwan US military exercise next year.

How can China react without immediate invasion?

That is none sense. China has been compromosing a lot and USA is the one breaking status quo and keeps antagonising China. Comparing it to WWI as same is madness.

If China is actually like WWI and retaliates every move they would be sending weapons to Iran, attempting to coup Japan, and fan US states separatism.

Minm · Oct 23, 2022

TK3600 said:
That is none sense. China has been compromosing a lot and USA is the one breaking status quo and keeps antagonising China. Comparing it to WWI as same is madness.

If China is actually like WWI and retaliates every move they would be sending weapons to Iran, attempting to coup Japan, and fan US states separatism.

So what can China do if just a few months from now an ambassador of Taiwan meets the US president and announces joint exercises in the Taiwan straits? It's going to be very difficult for China to compromise on the one China policy. If the US is allowed to have relations with both, all NATO countries are going to open Taiwan embassies

Phead128 · Oct 23, 2022

Personally, I think the only redline for invasion is Taiwan independence, Taiwan nukes, or US bases in Taiwan. This "grey area" of US name change, US politicans visits, arm sales, or US exercises is not likely to trigger armed reunification. China isn't going to be baited into AR by grey area salami slicing, unless there is a fundamental threat to the balance of power or independence declaration.

coolgod · Oct 23, 2022

Phead128 said:
Personally, I think the only redline for invasion is Taiwan independence, Taiwan nukes, or US bases in Taiwan. This "grey area" of US name change, US politicans visits, arm sales, or US exercises is not likely to trigger armed reunification. China isn't going to be baited into AR by grey area salami slicing, unless there is a fundamental threat to the balance of power or independence declaration.

Isn't Taiwan independence just basically a name change also? If China allows US to change building name from Taiwan Economic & Cultural Office to ROC Embassy, then other countries will believe that China will have no problem with US changing building name to Taiwan embassy.

The difference between One China and Two China principle is just as big as that between One China One Taiwan principle.

China's credibility is already in question, it cannot afford to move the red line back any further.

Minm · Oct 23, 2022

Phead128 said:
Personally, I think the only redline for invasion is Taiwan independence, Taiwan nukes, or US bases in Taiwan. This "grey area" of US name change, US politicans visits, arm sales, or US exercises is not likely to trigger armed reunification. China isn't going to be baited into AR by grey area salami slicing, unless there is a fundamental threat to the balance of power or independence declaration.

The Taiwan policy act references the military assistance advisory group, Thailand, as a model. Until 1978, there was a military assistance advisory group, Republic of China, including thousands of troops on Taiwan. If the act passes, the embassy is renamed and a joint exercise happens without China reacting forcefully, then there is a very real risk of American troops returning to the island.

It's up to the US how fast it's going to push this grey zone activity until it crosses the red line. But with Biden in charge I'm very worried that he doesn't have the authority to stop such developments. Trump could veto an act that essentially describes a program for starting a war with China. But Biden is so emotional about his democracy Vs autocracy narrative and such a weak president, he won't be able to pressure congress to stop the madness. So it makes sense from the American general's point of view. We may be at war next year, even if neither side wants to

Biscuits · Oct 23, 2022

TK3600 said:
That is none sense. China has been compromosing a lot and USA is the one breaking status quo and keeps antagonising China. Comparing it to WWI as same is madness.

If China is actually like WWI and retaliates every move they would be sending weapons to Iran, attempting to coup Japan, and fan US states separatism.

Its more like ww2 where one side kept pushing for more and more concessions and land because their ideology demands a far greater power than they current have.

If China didn't have the military it has today, US would already have de facto annexed Taiwan or even more territory. That should tell you there is no reasoning with US because they covet territory and the right to control large parts of the world or even the whole world.

What China can do is to just build up military to deter US invasion and let the Americans run their own economy into the floor until regime change happens. And if US attacks, whether through sending troops to Taiwan or a preemptive Pearl harbor like strike on the PLAN, then China "just" need to respond by demilitarizing US by force.

There are no Jingweis or Chamberlains in the new politburo. American dream to steal Chinese territory using some sort of "diplomacy" is dead, unless they send their whole military to take it by force. Then let them come and they will be sent to Hans Spiedel and Bandera.

tphuang · Oct 23, 2022

Closing this thread due to this event being over. We have 2 existing Taiwan threads in Strategic defense section that can continue Taiwan related discussions.

Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

supercat

Major

Minm

Junior Member

TK3600

Major

Minm

Junior Member

Phead128

Captain

coolgod

Colonel

Minm

Junior Member

Biscuits

Major

tphuang

Lieutenant General