Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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Temstar

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但因為今天能見度良好,共機在台海中線一帶的高空可清楚俯瞰澎湖,並透過相機的長鏡頭營造「壓縮感、近迫感」,使其台灣民眾誤認抵近澎湖。
"But today the visibility was good, thus PLAAF aircraft was able to clearly view Penghu from high altitude from the midline of the strait and was able to use long focus lens to shoot a video that could give the impression of proximity so as to mislead Taiwanese people into thinking they were close to Penghu"
 

siegecrossbow

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In case you feel CTI is not a reliable source because it has a bias towards PRC:

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"But today the visibility was good, thus PLAAF aircraft was able to clearly view Penghu from high altitude from the midline of the strait and was able to use long focus lens to shoot a video that could give the impression of proximity so as to mislead Taiwanese people into thinking they were close to Penghu"

Don’t look up.
 

zhangjim

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True. I must admit I am being optimistic (hoping) that the JCP will "grow a set" once the supermarkets are empty, cash is being used as toilet paper, crops are failing en mass, thousands lay dead in the streets, and so on- all the while China remains somewhat stable. But the signs do indeed point against such an outcome.

Political complacency is really only an issue because Japan is rather "cushy" at the moment. If you look at the Russian Empire, the communists didn't have a chance in the 1800s because the internal situation was relatively stable. But then World War I gutted the Russian economy, and in combination with mishandling on the part of the Tsardom and then the provisional government, the Bolsheviks took power with the support of much of the people. The RSDLP, too, faced much infiltration and weakness, but when the conditions of the country became unbearable the Bolsheviks split and took action.
I think you should stop expecting anything from the Japanese.

See how they miss the "glory" of the past?
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This kind of mentality is completely similar to that of Germany after World War I. They think those who oppose the war are all “a stab in the back.
It's ridiculous that although the JCP tried its best to cater to the voters, it was still regarded as a potential traitor.
The following picture shows the attitude of a representative Japanese politician: completely denying history and claiming that the war they started was "justice".

As long as the resentment of the masses is directed at China, South Korea and North Korea, those Japanese people who think highly of themselves will only more support full-scale Militarization.
 

Rettam Stacf

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In case you feel CTI is not a reliable source because it has a bias towards PRC:

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"But today the visibility was good, thus PLAAF aircraft was able to clearly view Penghu from high altitude from the midline of the strait and was able to use long focus lens to shoot a video that could give the impression of proximity so as to mislead Taiwanese people into thinking they were close to Penghu"

I look at the video. My eyeball estimate is that it was taking at about 20-30 degree elevation angle.

Simple math. Penghu is at about 60 miles from the Taiwan Strait median line and Tangent 20 degree is 0.36397. So a PLA plane flying near the median has to be up at 21.8 miles or 115K feet to take that picture at 20 degree angle.

Do not think even a U-2 or SR-71 spy plane can fly that high.
 

zbb

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  • 萧美琴
  • 顾立雄
  • 蔡其昌
  • 柯建铭
  • 林飞帆
  • 陈椒华
  • 王定宇
  • 苏贞昌
  • 游锡堃
  • 吴钊燮
Are hereby sanctioned by PRC for engaging in separatism.

You see no Tsai, I'm telling you she's an 峨嵋峰
They should also start sanctioning pro-separatist media. Make it known that any companies that advertises with such sanctioned media outlets will be banned from doing business on the mainland, any celebrity entertainer that appears on programs of such TV networks will be banned, etc.
 

Temstar

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They should also start sanctioning pro-separatist media. Make it known that any companies that advertises with such sanctioned media outlets will be banned from doing business on the mainland, any celebrity entertainer that appears on programs of such TV networks will be banned, etc.
It's important not to cast too wide of a net at this stage. As with the civil war period CPC is going to keep a little record book on all these characters. Back then CPC understands that if you live in ROC controlled area you can't avoid helping KMT in some capacity on account of white terror and the book is meant to track your actual actions to find where your heart lies. Every time you do something to resist the KMT you get a red dot next to your name, every time you do something to aid KMT you get a black dot. Earn enough black dots and you may find yourself facing the assassin's blade. On the day of liberation CPC will pass a judgement on you depending on the balance of your dots.

Hence similarly now CPC is keeping a little book to judge all the wanwan. People who find themselves on the 顽固分子 list are the ones who have already accumulated enough black dots to earn themselves a final verdict from CPC. In the event of AR they are going to get what's coming to them. Those not yet on the list however may still earn enough red dots to get on the "made contribution to unification" list. I suspect Ma Ying-jeou for example probably has dots on both side of the ledger with more in the red.

The existence of this record serves to moderate future behavior. If you sanction everyone you don't like then you lose this effect.

It also keeps them guessing and suspicious of each other. If you're Su Tseng-chang and you found out just now that you are sanctioned while Tsai is not. Wouldn't you be a bit suspicious of her? 雪山千古冷,独照峨眉峰
 
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