100% agreed. I hope this view is shared by the whole US military apparatus. J-20 is garbage, no need to worry about it.
Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
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If you assume military weapons systems have a typical service life of 30 years and build a model of Chinese military spending on current low levels, the stock of advanced Chinese weapons will roughly double in the next 9 years. Even a limited war will cause havoc.
As per Patchwork, the estimate is a GDP decline of 25-35% in the event of a war - which applies to both the USA and China. Presumably this is from an updated version of a previously declassified RAND report. But in 10 years time, the Chinese economy will be far larger than today and also way more self-sufficient from any US sanctions.
So there are very good reasons as to why China is not eager to start a war.
That was simpleminded and typical US military propaganda.
US has still never committed to actually invade China or even put up a timeline on when to invade.
If they feel like they will just get crushed, they're obviously not gonna throw away their own lives in a doomed invasion.
The Taiwan of today is less independent than the LDPR of today. If little Ukraine, country so poor even Xinjiang is richer in per capita, puts on a fight to keep their territories, why should China not give it a fair shot?
The troops, the drones, the artillery, the planes, the ships and most importantly the tech and morale to build more are all there, China is certainly way more prepared than almost any other country when it comes to territorial defense.
Just by continously deterring US invasion until US' own problems at home catch up with them, China will keep Taiwan. Its as simple as that.
This is Americoid cope. In year 2000-2005, US could roll into Taiwan province Crimea style and just announce a takeover. And its not like China had DF-26s that could blast the US invaders out of the water back then, or even J-20s to counter F-22s. Since then, the "chessboard and checkers" as you describe have turned to completely favor China on the conventional escalation ladder, yet Americans are coping that US is just "waiting for the right moment" lmao.
Why didn't they back then? Because even just invading a nuclear power that doesn't have much more other than nukes is in itself very dangerous. The only reason they risk it now is because the situation is just that dire at home in US.
America is not winning a Taiwan invasion without general draft and full mobilization. If US can't even do that much (even if it could, actually winning won't be easy), it is not capable of actually invading, it is just making threats to scare its rivals and give the suffering peasantry some distant land grab to hope for.
It would be useless if there was no air control of the coastal area of operations by Taiwan, he could not use the effective mobility of the tanks because all this movement would be recorded by PLA air assets.
Let's imagine a simple scenario, for example, let's say that the PLA starts the amphibious operation off the coast of Taiwan, in order to be successful, it requires that, moments before its start, adequate aerospace control is ensured and, in sequence, an intense preparation of fires (naval and air-naval fire), seeking to neutralize the resistance imposed by the defender on the coast.
Often, this type of operation is triggered in conjunction with airborne and/or airmobile operations. Even though the PLA has a ground inferiority in the initial moments of the amphibious operation, if Taiwan does not obtain air control or impose an exclusion zone in the area of operations preventing reconnaissance and attack air assets from flying over and carrying out their functions, Taiwan could gain mobility advantage. and superior fire because it is a force majeure in the initial moments of the amphibious landing, but if it does not obtain air control or the no-fly zone, Taiwan could try to use its ground superiority or its greater mobility to advantages but that would be inefficient because the PLA would be heavily using drones and helicopters for reconnaissance and attack, so Taiwan would not gain an advantage in this scenario.
The only way for Taiwan to operate in this sense is to use the urban environment to hide, carrying out local and specific attacks in the landing area and returning to its point of origin limiting the enemy's beachhead. This will not prevent disembarkation but will make it more expensive for those who disembark on the beach.
I agree that this is timid, but this type of operation exemplified in the image means that Taiwan has lost both its coastal defense capability, that is, it does not have air and naval means to expel the enemy from the maritime area of the coast, as well as it does not have legal means for effective defense of the coast-line (land area), that is, it does not have the capacity to impose a no-fly zone.
More generally, for amphibious assault to be viable, the enemy (PLA) has to have adequate aerospace control, at least locally - in the area of operations (Taiwan coast). Thus, the priority targets on land should be fire support assets (campaign artillery), command and control assets and armored/mechanized troops (Taiwan), that is, enemy aviation (PLA) should seek to eliminate or restrict the effectiveness of those who might jeopardize the success of the operation (Taiwan). This certainty reinforces the need for dispersion and camouflage of personnel and means employed in the defense of the coast (Taiwan), being preferable the adoption of such dispersion in depth. Anti-aircraft defense is essential for maintaining the effort in the operation against amphibious landings.
supercat
Major
China can easily seal off the Taiwan Strait like what Russia did to Crimea if the U.S. keeps provoking.
LMAO, first, the U.S. invented this "2027 deadline" from the thin air. Then they insist that it's China that should worry about it. It just reflects their own anxiety that time is not on their side.
It's called "whistling past the graveyard".
That’s not what he said.
Action speaks louder than words. Early this year they reestablished an aggressor squadrons using early block F-35s. Despite claims that they neutered some capabilities, they obviously realized through their limited encounters that the J-20 is not an threat that could be properly imitated by F-117 or F-16.
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Can we please start a new rule that only Chinese people can post on this forum. @Bellum_Romanum will be the moderator on who's Chinese.
If they really did neuter them, aren't they only self-sabotaging in that their training will be subpar?
Although I fully agree with your original comment that led to Bellum's response, I do also think you're a twat.
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