solarz
Brigadier
Yes, that would be great, thanks for suggesting it!
However, you seem to have posted this in the wrong thread. Might I point you toward the Feedback & Suggestion forum?
Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
- Thread starter sndef888
- Start date
- Status
Yes, that would be great, thanks for suggesting it!
However, you seem to have posted this in the wrong thread. Might I point you toward the Feedback & Suggestion forum?
PLA has enough critical mass of military power projection capability around S.China sea that it can easily conquer Taiwan with or without US intervention. Its just a question of whether China is ready to accept economic damage due to sanctions.
Apart from military preparation I find it strange that China has 0 preparation for political repercussions after Taiwan invaison. China could had secured atleast a military treaty with Vietnam after vietnam war. But no. China invaded Vietnam and made an enemy out of a neighbour.
China should postpone for any armed unification plan for some decade, grow economically, technologically, militarily and make some good reliable alliance that are also economically and militarily able to stand on its legs. Then they can go ahead with peaceful or armed reunification.
Apart from military preparation I find it strange that China has 0 preparation for political repercussions after Taiwan invaison. China could had secured atleast a military treaty with Vietnam after vietnam war. But no. China invaded Vietnam and made an enemy out of a neighbour.
China should postpone for any armed unification plan for some decade, grow economically, technologically, militarily and make some good reliable alliance that are also economically and militarily able to stand on its legs. Then they can go ahead with peaceful or armed reunification.
Not like China had much choice when reunified Vietnam tore up a signed treaty recognizing Xi Sha islands as Chinese territory, carried out ethnic cleansing of the Chinese minority living inside Vietnam, launched offensives against Chinese allies in Cambodia and Laos and started border skirmishes directly with China over land they claim belongs to them.
You mean, zero prep like RCEP, SCO, Belt and Road, dual circulation, self sufficiency in tech, de-dollarization and so on?
It takes two to tango. Also, the border skirmish ended in decades ago. Now the two governments appear to be working on a win-win basis.
Pure conjecture, ZERO evidence to back up these historically inaccurate description of what actually transpired between China and Vietnam.
The US promise to defend Taiwan is premised on an unprovoked Chinese attack. This is when China will have the least geopolitical support from countries like Singapore or South Korea, who'll see China as disrupting the status quo for no good reason.
The US hasn't promised to create an independent Taiwan and would have much less support for that.
You have to remember how the enemy thinks. They believe every opponent is Hitler, who just wants to conquer the world in a series of unprovoked attacks. They believe China will act like Russia and launch a surprise attack. Rationally, China is much more likely to wait for the ROC side to act first and only react later. That's what they've always done so far. Nobody stopped Pelosi from visiting, but there was a strong response to that.
The Ukraine war is actually helpful for China because it deligitimises referendum based declarations of independence or joining Russia. The Americans might ignore that, but at least Europeans would be much less happy to fight China if Taiwan is seen to have brought trouble on themselves.
The US hasn't promised to create an independent Taiwan and would have much less support for that.
You have to remember how the enemy thinks. They believe every opponent is Hitler, who just wants to conquer the world in a series of unprovoked attacks. They believe China will act like Russia and launch a surprise attack. Rationally, China is much more likely to wait for the ROC side to act first and only react later. That's what they've always done so far. Nobody stopped Pelosi from visiting, but there was a strong response to that.
The Ukraine war is actually helpful for China because it deligitimises referendum based declarations of independence or joining Russia. The Americans might ignore that, but at least Europeans would be much less happy to fight China if Taiwan is seen to have brought trouble on themselves.
Potential flashpoint may occur, ironically, after 2024 election when Tsai is no longer eligible for reelection.
Despite the de-sinification that occurred under the DPP in the last six years, Tsai actually opposed formal declaration of independence by maintaining that ROC is defacto independent. That may change when a more radical leader gets elected.
Despite the de-sinification that occurred under the DPP in the last six years, Tsai actually opposed formal declaration of independence by maintaining that ROC is defacto independent. That may change when a more radical leader gets elected.
Tsai or not doesn't matter.
Btw after 2024 is important, not because of Tsai, but because the Republicans will come in power
Chance of war skyrockets the moment Republicans get power
Indeed. Seems like they do drink their own kool-aid a lot.
I disagree. Trump is a lot more anti-war than someone like Biden.
- Status