Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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supersnoop

Major
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phrozenflame said:
They are waiting for declaration of independence that will come at the time of their choosing, when all the pieces on the chessboard and checkers are all set. So, they very much control the trigger. Why not already? Because they're all busy re-orienting towards China. Putin probably threw a wrench in that plan by year or three.

SImilarly, applying your logic, one can ask why hasn't China unified Taiwan? What are they waiting for then?
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Again, you are ignoring reality.

The longer US/Taiwan waits, the worse the situation is for them.
1970s - Best fighter in Chinese inventory was J-7 - ROCAF had F-5, about equal, US had all kinds of superior aircraft

1980s - Earliest J-8s (nothing to write home about) and, ROCAF is about the same, US introduced F-18 Hornet and improving the F-15/16

1990s - PLAAF has early SARH-only BVR Su-27/J-11A acquired from Russia, ROCAF has Mirage 2000 with MICA Active AAM, F-16 with AIM-120 capability, F-CK-1 with TC-2, US finishing F-22

2000's - J-20, J-10C, J-16, J-15, J-16D etc. etc. Do I need to go on? ROCAF - many Mirage crashes due to age, upgraded F-16. US stops F-22 production and still ironing out issues with JSF/F-35 (program started in 90s)

Although for PLAAF, some of these are just variants, they are also uniquely new capabilities that did not exist 20 years ago (dedicated EW, carrier aviation, etc.)

This is just talking about the Air Force, not even navy, rocket force, army, or space. Can't overlook the fact that there was no Beidou constellation 20 years ago. Old DF series missiles were talking about dozens of m CEP at BEST. Now, they are able to hit the front door.

So what reorienting? Is Taiwan or the US waiting for China to build the second Death Star to declare independence? The longer it takes to reorient, it's going to be another dozens of ships and J-20s built, 1000s of missiles, rockets, drones, etc.

So right now PRC is enjoying a flow of investment capital from Taiwan into mainland China, flow of capital from the US into mainland China (Hi Elon! Hi Tim Cook!), and using this money to tangibly invest in the country (not just the military, but HSR, high tech manufacturing, poverty alleviation, etc.), meanwhile the whole world has to at the very least pay lip service to One-China policy, and China has the UNSC permanent seat. On top of this 40% of Taiwan exports are going to mainland China. You tell me what they are waiting for.
 
Phead128

Phead128

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Moderator - World Affairs
Petrolicious88 said:
Fanboys a few months ago were all arguing US won’t sacrifice blood to come to Taiwan’s defense.
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Why would U.S. risk a nuclear war against a peer competitor over an island 8000 miles away? What is so strategic about Taiwan? Doesn't host US bases/troops/airfields, why would US sacrifice blood to come to Taiwan's defense? Just because an absent-minded gaffe-prone old man who also said: "Pandemic is over" with over 3,000 American deaths per week? Sept 11th every week. You actually believe that guy?
 
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Zichan

Junior Member
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Phead128 said:
Why would U.S. risk a nuclear war against a peer competitor over an island 8000 miles away? What is so strategic about Taiwan? Doesn't host US bases/troops/airfields, why would US sacrifice blood to come to Taiwan's defense? Just because an absent-minded gaffe-prone old man who also said: "Pandemic is over" with over 3,000 American deaths per week? Sept 11th every week. You actually believe that guy?
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An explanation given by Gen. MacArthur is particularly illuminating:
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From this island chain we can dominate with sea and air power every Asiatic port from Vladivostok to Singapore and prevent any hostile movement into the Pacific.

Any predatory attack from Asia must be an amphibious effort. No amphibious force can be successful without control of the sea lanes and the air over those lanes in its avenue of advance. With naval and air supremacy and modest ground elements to defend the bases, any major attack from continental Asia toward us or our friends in the Pacific would be doomed to failure.
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The holding of this defense line in the western Pacific is entirely dependent upon holding all segments thereof, for any major breach of that line by an unfriendly power would render vulnerable to determined attack on every other major segment. This is a military estimate as to which I have yet to find a military leader who will take exception.

For that reason, I have strongly recommended in the past, as a matter of military urgency, that under no circumstances must Formosa fall under Communist control. Such an eventuality would at once threaten the freedom of the Philippines and the loss of Japan and might well force our western frontier back to the coast of California, Oregon, and Washington.”
 
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Petrolicious88

Senior Member
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Phead128 said:
Why would U.S. risk a nuclear war against a peer competitor over an island 8000 miles away? What is so strategic about Taiwan? Doesn't host US bases/troops/airfields, why would US sacrifice blood to come to Taiwan's defense? Just because an absent-minded gaffe-prone old man who also said: "Pandemic is over" with over 3,000 American deaths per week? Sept 11th every week. You actually believe that guy?
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If US doesn't defend Taiwan, it can pretty much forget about Japan, Philippines, Korea, etc.. It might as well cede Indo - pacific, and all of Asia to China.

PLA strategists have also always planned for US involvement. Any general planning for AR without factoring in US involvement is naive.
 
Phead128

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Petrolicious88 said:
If US doesn't defend Taiwan, it can pretty much forget about Japan, Philippines, Korea, etc.. It might as well cede Indo - pacific, and all of Asia to China.
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You appear to forget that U.S. abandonment of Kurds, Afghanistan, and Vietnamese did not result in losing all other allies or "all" of Asia?
Petrolicious88 said:
PLA strategists have also always planned for US involvement. Any general planning for AR without factoring in US involvement is naive.
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Planning for something doesn't mean it will actually occur. You can contingency plan for US involvement, and US can sit out because costs are too high. These are not mutually exclusive, and you haven't answered the question: Why would US risk nuclear WW3 over an island 8000 miles away?
Zichan said:
An explanation given by Gen. MacArthur is particularly illuminating:
“
From this island chain we can dominate with sea and air power every Asiatic port from Vladivostok to Singapore and prevent any hostile movement into the Pacific.

Any predatory attack from Asia must be an amphibious effort. No amphibious force can be successful without control of the sea lanes and the air over those lanes in its avenue of advance. With naval and air supremacy and modest ground elements to defend the bases, any major attack from continental Asia toward us or our friends in the Pacific would be doomed to failure.
…
The holding of this defense line in the western Pacific is entirely dependent upon holding all segments thereof, for any major breach of that line by an unfriendly power would render vulnerable to determined attack on every other major segment. This is a military estimate as to which I have yet to find a military leader who will take exception.

For that reason, I have strongly recommended in the past, as a matter of military urgency, that under no circumstances must Formosa fall under Communist control. Such an eventuality would at once threaten the freedom of the Philippines and the loss of Japan and might well force our western frontier back to the coast of California, Oregon, and Washington.”
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China isn't 1910's or 1950's backwards nation anymore that you can carve up on a paper map. Modern China is a Second Superpower. MacArthur got a first taste of that and found that out the hard way in Korea.
 
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Bellum_Romanum

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
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phrozenflame said:
You imply somehow Chinese final warnings are linked to the outcomes. Please do elaborate.

My point is some people actually think one-China policy is more than just a peace of paper at this point.

If you see my responses above, not single one suggests rushing into war.

This is a classic strategy similar to how Russia was forced into Ukraine. They will eventually bring it to the point where China will need to choose to 'act' then and there. China is not 100% in control of the timeline as some assume. Taiwan can be coerced into declaration of Independence with US boots on the ground simultaneously backed by several Carrier battle groups and what not East of Taiwan. At that point, US will pull enough countries to recognize the declaration that it has some credence. You can refer to the Ukraine playbook.

You are all assuming China is the only smart player and US is dumb and that China will make the first move and somehow catch US off-guard in it's reunification war. That's not necessarily the case.


We can all quote ancient history, it's good to take lessons from it but one must not be so blinded that you assume the same variables apply today, no they don't.
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phrozenflame said:
Taiwan can be coerced into declaration of Independence with US boots on the ground simultaneously backed by several Carrier battle groups and what not East of Taiwan
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How is the U.S. and it's lackeys going to magically place their 7 air craft carriers without any movements and countermeasures from China? You write this scenario as if China is going to play possum and then gets to play the victim by being shocked that U.S. Armada somehow magically appeared into their territory out of the blue. Come on dude. You okay?
 
Bellum_Romanum

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
Petrolicious88 said:
Fanboys a few months ago were all arguing US won’t sacrifice blood to come to Taiwan’s defense. Now, they are saying Taiwan will easily surrender if China just enforces a blockade and bomb Taiwan into submission. It’s as if it will be that easy.

The One China policy has been diluted. Taiwan is by most definitions already independent. China may not attack Taiwan even if it formally declares independence because it can achieve its goal of achieving regional dominance without Taiwan. A Taiwan war is not worth it.
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Lol dude, you're clueless and dumb as a rock to suggest that China wouldn't wage a war of no tomorrow if and when a formal declaration of Taiwanese independence commence. No self-respecting Chinese regardless of wherever we reside would allow or wish to see this happen. The reunification of our long lost lands can't be bargain for again champ. It's hard for you to comprehend this fact and yet you are understanding of Ukrainians insistence of fighting the Russians despite their disparity of power. China may not be ready to fully fight the west over Taiwan but if push comes to shove it'll take that step come what may.

By the way, why do you insist, as a non-Chinese, what, where, and how we should view things, take action that's near and dear to our hearts and minds as Chinese people? Who the FK are you?
 
Bellum_Romanum

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
phrozenflame said:
They are waiting for declaration of independence that will come at the time of their choosing, when all the pieces on the chessboard and checkers are all set. So, they very much control the trigger. Why not already? Because they're all busy re-orienting towards China. Putin probably threw a wrench in that plan by year or three.

SImilarly, applying your logic, one can ask why hasn't China unified Taiwan? What are they waiting for then?
Click to expand...
phrozenflame said:
SImilarly, applying your logic, one can ask why hasn't China unified Taiwan? What are they waiting for then?
Click to expand...
For what purpose? It's written within the Chinese law of secession that any attacks on Taiwan will and shall commence if any formal declaration of Independence is declared by any government in that province of Taiwan.

Most importantly, the forceful reunification of Taiwan by China wasn't on the card up until the politician led by the current leader of DPP starting around mid 2015-16 essentially declared that the 1992 consensus wasn't going to be recognized which prompted Chinese leadership to not only take notice but to react aggressively. The U.S. has simply jumped on this U.S. engineered opportunity to define the narrative that big bad Commies of China are needlessly provoking or increasing the tension in the Taiwan Strait or the supposed bullying of China against the hapless and poor innocent countries in South East Asia that has competing claims on the disputed Islands in that region.

Most importantly, China/PRC has no intention of changing the statusquo because it's interest was to further enhance it's economic growth and activities to ensure that all it's people get to have the taste of the good life. The Chinese economy was and is in the ascendant by all accounts so why would it then out of logic and reason turn that boat around by premature force reunification with Taiwan? Unless of course, by your estimation the CPC are all composed of retarded old twats and are simply in power for conquest and genocidal reasons. The statusquo has serve China and Taiwan well so it stands no reason to shake the apple cart.
 
escobar

escobar

Brigadier
Wilsbach also noted that there were lessons learned from China’s activities following US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit to Taiwan. And while he wasn’t willing to go into details in an open setting, he noted “they showed us some cards. They showed some cards, maybe they didn’t intend to, but we picked up on it. And so we’re incorporating that into our future plans.”
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