I joked a few years ago that one day we'd think of Trump as not so bad because the presidents to come will be far worse. I previously imagined that time to be far in the future.
Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
- Thread starter sndef888
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Vietnam was a special case. They started massacring Chinese Vietnamese, invaded Cambodia and Laos, started shelling Chinese border cities and signed a defense pact with Soviet Union, at the time a rival of China.
Non east Asians might not know but historically Vietnam was a very aggressive and expansionist power. Vietnam throughout history has been led by ethnic Chinese warlords who were unable to make it in China proper, had a chip on their shoulder, and went to Vietnam to serve then overthrow their kings and expand to the south. Ho Chi Minh is just the latest ethnic Chinese warlord to expand his empire from the north to the south, and the Democratic Republic of Vietnam is just the latest Vietnamese imperial dynasty.
I felt Trump mostly had a grip on things. When his subordinates do things he doesn't like they are promptly fired. With Biden I don't know who is running the house...
The idea of not disrupting the status quo applies to Taiwan - don't make trouble - and US - don't make trouble through your Taiwan proxy. I doubt China allows the idea to tie China's own hands. East and SE Asian countries understand that eventually China will make a move to settle the Taiwan issue.
I agree with most of what you say. But if the ROC army calculates that the beach is indefensible because of a huge air power disadvantage and all their movements tracked, then there's no point moving the tanks a few km close to the beach head where they'll be sitting ducks like what that screenshot envisions. Better to camouflage them all in the urban areas right from the beginning. I suppose they're obligated to contest the beachhead in some form, but like I said that's a half-hearted attempt to repulse the landing.
WASHINGTON, Sept 19 (Reuters) - White House Indo-Pacific coordinator Kurt Campbell said on Monday that President Joe Biden's remarks about defending Taiwan "speak for themselves," and that U.S. policy had not changed.
Biden said during a CBS "60 Minutes" interview broadcast on Sunday that U.S forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, remarks China said sent the wrong signal to those seeking an independent Taiwan.
"I do not believe that it is appropriate to call the remarks that came from the White House today as walking back the president's remarks," Campbell told a forum in Washington.
"The president's remarks speak for themselves. I do think our policy has been consistent and is unchanged and will continue," he said.
This is the 4th time Biden declared "strategic clarity" without officially changing any policies. And this time, the White House did not roll back his statement. Instead, Kurt Campbell said that the President meant what he said. Several reasons why Biden could be finally declaring a clarity that is "more clear" that previous times.
1. Election is coming up, and he need out-tough the Republicans on China. Keep in mind that Trump never declared strategic clarity despite increasing arms sales to Taiwan. In fact, Trump didn't even want to have US troops directly involved in a Taiwan contingency.
2. PLA capabilities are improving remarkably, but troops still need time effectively integrate the new equipment into battle plans and develop relevant strategies using them. The US hopes to exploit PLA weakness before the PLA is actually ready. By forcing China into a fight in 2022 or 2023, there's still a chance that the PLA could be caught flat-footed. However, this is a more sinister hypothesis.
3. The massive failure of the Russian Army in Ukraine has strengthened DC folks' beliefs that authoritarian governments could never raise professional armies due to inherent corruption and lack of accountability to democratic institutions. If the Russians are so competent, the same thing could be said about the PLA since both have authoritarian government led by strongmen. This is typical group think in DC.
1. Election is coming up, and he need out-tough the Republicans on China. Keep in mind that Trump never declared strategic clarity despite increasing arms sales to Taiwan. In fact, Trump didn't even want to have US troops directly involved in a Taiwan contingency.
2. PLA capabilities are improving remarkably, but troops still need time effectively integrate the new equipment into battle plans and develop relevant strategies using them. The US hopes to exploit PLA weakness before the PLA is actually ready. By forcing China into a fight in 2022 or 2023, there's still a chance that the PLA could be caught flat-footed. However, this is a more sinister hypothesis.
3. The massive failure of the Russian Army in Ukraine has strengthened DC folks' beliefs that authoritarian governments could never raise professional armies due to inherent corruption and lack of accountability to democratic institutions. If the Russians are so competent, the same thing could be said about the PLA since both have authoritarian government led by strongmen. This is typical group think in DC.
If they are going to go down that path then they are more likely to goad Taiwan into declaring independence.
A major reason in the past to maintain strategic ambiguity around whether the US would come to Taiwan's aid militarily was to discourage them from doing anything rash like declaring independence. Biden seems to have thrown caution to the wind in this regard stating unequivocally they would came to Taiwan aid in force. Perhaps this the US goading Taiwan to declare independence and Taiwan has not taken the bait so far preferring not to commit suicide.
In the event of AR regardless of whether the US manages to beat China back or not Taiwan will loose.
They said this:
Source
Literally just going back and forth. Clear as mud
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