Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

9dashline said:

So bottom line, US is pissed that its losing the "world order" that it worked to secure through its wins during WWII to China and see as time goes by its odds are slipping away....

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Although I do not disagree with the rest of your post in general, let me make one comment on this part. The rest we can leave for the future.

It comes back to the status quo between the straits.

Depending on how one views the status quo, like it or hate it, the objective fact is that it has kept the peace as long as I have been alive. It has kept the peace, as long as all of us have been alive.

Now we get to the interesting part.

The Pelosi visit, was an attempt to change the status quo.

This is remarkable. And also, completely absurd.

This new US law regarding Taiwan, basically another attempt to change the status quo.

As DDP Tsai has been saying, they do not want to change the status quo. Publicly Tsai said words to that effect, because the people of Taiwan have lived with the status quo for all their lives too!

But here, right now, the Americans feel obligated to change the status quo between the straits.

This will obviously fail, and is too absurd to really to anything too much to counter it.

Essentially the Americans want to re-ignite the Chinese civil war, because it suits its own narrow interests.

Like, they really do learn their strategies from the comic books!

This is what China is going to do, and that will two things in my estimation.

First thing is keep doing the regular patrols around Taiwan, normalizing that.

Second thing is do the keep one eye open and one eye closed with this blatant American attempts to undermine Chinese sovereignty and goading to re-start the Chinese civil war.

I don't believe the CCP view these recent American actions with concern, but more like contempt.

Sure, there are many other things the Chinese might do, but a key principle would be no more cooperation over anything. Intensify the global scope of the rivalry.

While the United States is trying to pull lame stunts like this, China gets to work building relationships around the globe. Make it a point, to increase Chinese presence worldwide, crowding out the Americans.

It's remarkable. The Americans want to restart the Chinese civil war, when mainland China is not really interested, and Taiwan is not interested.

Not sure if Taiwan is interested in an arms race with China either. Yet, that is what the Americans believe is the solution.

All the while those US carriers kept their distance from Taiwan.

horse said:

It's remarkable. The Americans want to restart the Chinese civil war, when mainland China is not really interested, and Taiwan is not interested.

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It's not that Tsai isn't interested in restarting the Chinese Civil War.

Tsai wants Taiwanese independence, and she'll accept war as long as it gets her independence if someone else (the US) does the fighting for her.

On the flip side, the US only wants to restart the Chinese Civil War if Taiwan and China do all the fighting (like in Ukraine) and the US doesn't have to send troops.

This gap in expectations between Taiwan and the US will probably do more to keep the status quo intact than anything else.

One last comment about the status quo.

What the status quo is, another angle, is how Chinese on both sides of the straits handle our affairs.

Now here is the Americans, saying that is all wrong!

Like, the Chinese are unable to handle our own affairs.

The mainland Chinese, they would think and say, go fuck yourself. Then the rivalry intensifies worldwide. Damn mother fuckers, we take on all of yous, just like Mao in the 1960's.

The Taiwan, they will be polite. The power dynamics dictate that.

Moonscape said:

Tsai wants Taiwanese independence, and she'll accept war as long as it gets her independence if someone else (the US) does the fighting for her.

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I'm not a fan of Tsai, not by a long shot but I don't think this characterization of Tsai is correct. Tsai doesn't actually believe in any ideals like Taiwan Independence, she only uses it for her own political ends. The actual hardcore secessionists don't like this aspect about her, the guy that continues to investigate her degree in London? That dude is a hardcore secessionists.

Tsai has a fairly good idea where the red lines are and would rather the status que continues on account of saving her own skin. She famously said "遇到压力不屈服，得到支持不冒进". US has repeatedly sent people over telling her to make a move and have you seen her do anything in the last year or so? All the push has been coming from the US.

Less than two months until the US midterm elections. Hopefully the rhetoric from the US will simmer down. Though I assume it will ramp up pretty steeply during the lead up to the US presidential election in 2 years

Nobo said:

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Sounds like a highly face saving way of admitting loss.

If you lose basically your entire combat effective military in the region, how can you carry out an invasion when you have no troops/air support/ships to hold the captured territory anyways? At most, the study is showing that at massive costs, US offensive in China can have limited gains, and then we get a cliffhanger on what will happen afterwards.

I think the most important take away point from the article and most of US' own simulations of an invasion is this: if America wants to take Taiwan, it better mobilize completely and institute a general draft. Because its gonna need 110% of its forces.

In some regards, China could benefit from provoking US into striking first with a "special operation" rather than allowing US to mobilize on its own terms and declare "war". If US sends only 2 CVs and around 200k troops, China could crush the invasion force and essentially win the war with low risks. As for how exactly China would bait US into launching a premature strike its hard to speculate. But this remains an attractive option to China.

Maikeru said:

Just stop buying US goods and bonds. Boeing already lamenting the fact that it's had barely any new Chinese orders since 2017 and is effectively locked out of 25% of the global airliner market - by its own estimates, US$1.47 trillion worth of sales by 2040. Make that happen to other US manufacturers. Don't announce it, just stop buying. Source foodstuffs from Brazil, Argentina, Africa, etc.

Work towards ending petrodollar and US dominance of international transactions. Encourage more commodity producers to accept payment in RMB and alternatives to SWIFT. Don't announce that either, just do it.

Work towards import substitution in chip design and fabrication - and any other areas where there is still reliance on US tech.

Mend bridges with India to discourage it from falling into the US camp. It would really rather remain neutral, I think.

Work to develop RCEP into a more comprehensive free trade area. Give other nations an alternative to reliance on the US market and investment.

All of these things are relatively easy for China to do and indeed many are being done. USA will like none of this. And the PLA doesn't have to fire a shot.

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Agree. There are lots of ways to retaliate without restarting the civil war.

If China announces that she will only pay for oil and natural gas in RMB or the seller's currency, will there be enough supply?

Temstar said:

I'm not a fan of Tsai, not by a long shot but I don't think this characterization of Tsai is correct. Tsai doesn't actually believe in any ideals like Taiwan Independence, she only uses it for her own political ends. The actual hardcore secessionists don't like this aspect about her, the guy that continues to investigate her degree in London? That dude is a hardcore secessionists.

Tsai has a fairly good idea where the red lines are and would rather the status que continues on account of saving her own skin. She famously said "遇到压力不屈服，得到支持不冒进". US has repeatedly sent people over telling her to make a move and have you seen her do anything in the last year or so? All the push has been coming from the US.

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It makes you wonder why she is elected. If she was elected on the ticket for independence yet is happy with the status quo, what's the point in having her in power? Just to troll the mainlanders once in a while?

Pretty soon Taiwanese will realise that even without war, needlessly provoking a much bigger country that you are entirely dependent on economically will result in a Cuba style economy, except without socialism it'll be more like Haiti.

chlosy said:

Agree. There are lots of ways to retaliate without restarting the civil war.

If China announces that she will only pay for oil and natural gas in RMB or the seller's currency, will there be enough supply?

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We will know by December.