Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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zhangjim

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I flipped through the act.
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SEC. 802. DETERMINATIONS WITH RESPECT TO ACTIVITIES OF THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA IMPACTING TAIWAN.
(a) In General.—The President shall determine, in accordance with subsection (b), whether—
(1) the Government of the People’s Republic of China, including through any of its proxies, is knowingly engaged in a significant escalation in hostile action in or against Taiwan, compared to the level of hostile action in or against Taiwan before December 1, 2021; and
(2) if such engagement exists, whether such escalation has the significant effect of—
(A) undermining, overthrowing, or dismantling the governing institutions in Taiwan;
(B) occupying the territory of Taiwan; or
(C) interfering with the territorial integrity of Taiwan.
(b) Timing Of Determinations.—The President shall make the determination described in subsection (a)—
(1) not later than 15 days after the date of the enactment of this Act;
(2) after the first determination under paragraph (1), not less frequently than once every 90 days (or more frequently, if warranted) during the 1-year period beginning on such date of enactment; and
(3) after the end of such 1-year period, not less frequently than once every 120 days.
(c) Report Required.—Upon making a determination described in subsection (a), the President shall submit a report describing the factors influencing such determination to—
(1) the appropriate committees of Congress;
(2) the Committee on Armed Services of the Senate; and
(3) the Committee on Armed Services of the House of Representatives.
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This is the most complete humiliation, which means that any deterrent military exercises and military activities will be subject to the most severe sanctions by the United States.
War is inevitable, it only depends on the timing.
I think these terms will be retained. However, when American inflation continues to soar, a large-scale military exercise will be the best response. I want to see how that sleepy person reacts.

But on the other hand, will the leadership be intimidated by this threat and choose to yield in exchange for economic benefits?Russia's economic endurance is much stronger than their military strength, but are we completely opposite?
Such a major event no longer allows us to wait slowly for the NPC to convene.
 
solarz

solarz

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siegecrossbow said:
I think the response will be muted, or at least till the 20th Congress has concluded. One thing is for certain: anyone still calling for peaceful reunification may be considered traitorous.
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I think there's a tendency on SDF to exaggerate the likelihood of war. So long as no red lines, as defined in the anti-secession act, is crossed, peaceful reunification is still in the cards.
 
Bellum_Romanum

Bellum_Romanum

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LawLeadsToPeace said:
The US is currently reorienting their ground forces back to the division system with some elements of the BCT. Here is a link to that:
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Battle Order has proven to be extremely accurate when it comes to describing US military TOE's.

In addition, there was a video on Instagram that showed a drone swarm that was used by the 1st Armored Division to attack a simulated enemy at Fort Irwin. So the US military isn't sitting on its hands and dreaming of their victories.

Whether or not the US divisions have been completely converted and are combat ready for a peer conflict is a different story, and I definitely do not know that.
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Yes, have seen or watched their video version of this on what I assumed to be their YouTube channel. Here's the link

 
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Biscuits

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zhangjim said:
I flipped through the act.
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This is the most complete humiliation, which means that any deterrent military exercises and military activities will be subject to the most severe sanctions by the United States.
War is inevitable, it only depends on the timing.
I think these terms will be retained. However, when American inflation continues to soar, a large-scale military exercise will be the best response. I want to see how that sleepy person reacts.

But on the other hand, will the leadership be intimidated by this threat and choose to yield in exchange for economic benefits?Russia's economic endurance is much stronger than their military strength, but are we completely opposite?
Such a major event no longer allows us to wait slowly for the NPC to convene.
Click to expand...
US already has the most severe sanctions possible on China without inducing itself into irreversible economical damage. Arguably, it has already induced such damage, as even inflating the economy with empty gdp using QE can't save them from recession. The difference is that operating on current sanctions against China, the US economy is running like a body on compensated heart failure, while if they stepped up and even incur wide ranging return sanctions from Beijing, it will be like a heart attack.

As usual its an empty threat and China will keep operating on its own territory as well as wherever international law permits.
 
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zhangjim

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solarz said:
I think there's a tendency on SDF to exaggerate the likelihood of war. So long as no red lines, as defined in the anti-secession act, is crossed, peaceful reunification is still in the cards.
Click to expand...
I can't agree with this view at present. The situation has deteriorated to the point where only the last step is needed.
If we still need time, we should do something to delay the deterioration of the situation.
However, if the only criterion is not to touch the "red line", I suggest that we should not do so many redundant diplomatic activities.

Do you think the DPP will choose to unify when given a clear guarantee of security? They will only ask the mainland to sign an agreement recognizing independence. Don't forget that Taiwan's diplomats are strongly encouraging Europe to participate in the "preventive sanctions" against mainland China
 
Coalescence

Coalescence

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zhangjim said:
I flipped through the act.
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This is the most complete humiliation, which means that any deterrent military exercises and military activities will be subject to the most severe sanctions by the United States.
War is inevitable, it only depends on the timing.
I think these terms will be retained. However, when American inflation continues to soar, a large-scale military exercise will be the best response. I want to see how that sleepy person reacts.

But on the other hand, will the leadership be intimidated by this threat and choose to yield in exchange for economic benefits?Russia's economic endurance is much stronger than their military strength, but are we completely opposite?
Such a major event no longer allows us to wait slowly for the NPC to convene.
Click to expand...
If that's true then they should do more military exercises and activities, It is much better to suffer but then adapt to the sanctions during peacetime than in wartime after an armed reunification happens, and it helps with the goal of reducing dependencies on US supply chains, lessening the influence US have on China's economy and politics.
 
FriedButter

FriedButter

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FriedButter said:
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Xi made a statement at the meeting.

China ready to work with Russia to support each other on issues concerning core interests: Xi​

China is ready to work with Russia in extending strong support to each other on issues concerning their respective core interests, Chinese President Xi Jinping said during a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Samarkand on Thursday.

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Temstar

Temstar

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Biscuits said:
US already has the most severe sanctions possible on China without inducing itself into irreversible economical damage. Arguably, it has already induced such damage, as even inflating the economy with empty gdp using QE can't save them from recession. The difference is that operating on current sanctions against China, the US economy is running like a body on compensated heart failure, while if they stepped up and even incur wide ranging return sanctions from Beijing, it will be like a heart attack.

As usual its an empty threat and China will keep operating on its own territory as well as wherever international law permits.
Click to expand...
It's definitely already causing damage. That 8.3% CPI and the stock market crash is no joke. We're talking multiple rounds of increasing interest include two with 75 basis points, falling oil prices and inflation still not coming down. All these saber rattling is US trying to maintain its hegemon image and you can already see what Wall Street think of this.
 
M

Minm

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zhangjim said:
I flipped through the act.
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This is the most complete humiliation, which means that any deterrent military exercises and military activities will be subject to the most severe sanctions by the United States.
War is inevitable, it only depends on the timing.
I think these terms will be retained. However, when American inflation continues to soar, a large-scale military exercise will be the best response. I want to see how that sleepy person reacts.

But on the other hand, will the leadership be intimidated by this threat and choose to yield in exchange for economic benefits?Russia's economic endurance is much stronger than their military strength, but are we completely opposite?
Such a major event no longer allows us to wait slowly for the NPC to convene.
Click to expand...
China shouldn't change its policies even if the act is passed in its current form. Continue exercises and send planes close to Taiwan in reaction to ROC government mistakes.

If there are official relations between the US and ROC governments, then the reaction is simple. Expel the US ambassador or downgrade their embassy like what they did with Lithuania
 
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