Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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ACuriousPLAFan

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China should stop reacting and start acting.
China should consider responding effectively and diligently, not just merely reacting.

The US is constantly daring China to fall into the same trap as Russia did, looking at how Russia is struggling to get out of it right now. China must hold firm and steady, and try not to fall for the same trap as Russia did on Ukraine for as long as possible.

To start small, China could consider enacting sanctions against those (and maybe their immediate family members) in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee who voted "Aye" for the bill, and seize their investments, properties and holdings in China, if found. Since China can and has done the same for Pelosi and her immediate family, these people would be considered small fry.

Furthermore, unlike Russia, China is the 2nd largest economy in the world by Nominal measure and largest economy in the world by PPP measure.

I do believe China can use that advantage as a leverage and tool and inflict serious hurt to them in response.
 
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Nutrient

Junior Member
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In addition, a strong Russia is not good for China. The last time Russia was strong, you had the Sino-Soviet split.
When the Soviet Union was strong, it helped China a lot. Without some Soviet funding, China's Communist Party would probably have died as a small, pitifully weak organization. Today's mighty CPC would probably not exist.


The last last time Russia was strong, China lost outer Mongolia. The last last last time, China lost outer Manchuria.
Who cares. Mongolia is mostly desert; China got some atomic bomb technology from the Soviets. Very much worth it. The Vladivostok area is more valuable than Mongolia, but it's still only a tiny fraction of China's population.


Russia is a frenemy, not a friend.
In the dreams of Western propagandists. Right now, China needs Russia to be as strong as possible in order to resist the West. If Russia ever collapses, China knows that it is next on NATO's kill list.
 

9dashline

Captain
Registered Member
It's only going to get worse.
The demonstration effect of the United States will inevitably lead to the imitation of other countries, and it will not even need to fire a bullet from Taiwan to obtain the "international status" it has dreamed of.
And what will the leadership do to persuade the people by then?
Is it really necessary to wait until Taiwan completely renews its arsenal? It would be irresponsible for the lives of people and soldiers, as the enemy would inevitably choose to attack cities to create panic, as Ukraine has demonstrated.
So bottom line, US is pissed that its losing the "world order" that it worked to secure through its wins during WWII to China and see as time goes by its odds are slipping away.... This script can be flipped if China were to lose its rogue/renegade province island of Tiawan to the US if the US took action now as it is indeed doing, however if US "loses" Tiawan to China then it sets in play a series of casading events that results in the accelerated implosion of US Empire, collapse of US hegemony, and consequential arguably resulting in the breakup and demise USA as a nation... The stakes could not be higher for both superpowers because the Tiawan chess piece is existential in nature to the survival of them both. This is the stuff that WWIII and nuclear MAD is made of and made for. America's strategic mistake was its racial arrogance thinking the Chinese could never catch up, much less ever surpass, hence it allowing Tiawan to end up being the pawn that will decide US geopolitical destiny and fate, a piece that belongs to the "enemy" and within a literal stone's throw for him. And yet my only real fear isnt that the world ends, for that would still be infinitely more preferable than for China to allow the US another final win when China has the power to end it all if it came down to it. What use is the DF-41 if its never going to be used under pretty much any circumstances? I hope the CPC didnt decide to bluff themselves with it. That would be the greatest self own.
 

Nutrient

Junior Member
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I think the real question boils down to did the US build the right kind of military for a Taiwan conflict and do they think they have.
I think most reasonably informed people would say no, the US did not build the right kind of military for a Taiwan conflict.

That does prompt two related questions: (1) What kind of military would the US need to win a Taiwan conflict these days (without using nukes, that is)? And (2) Can the US build that military, given its current level of resources and capabilities? Honest questions; I'm no military expert.
 

ohan_qwe

Junior Member
China should consider responding effectively and diligently, not just merely reacting.

The US is constantly daring China to fall into the same trap as Russia did, looking at how Russia is struggling to get out of it right now. China must hold firm and steady, and try not to fall for the same trap as Russia did on Ukraine for as long as possible.

To start small, China could consider enacting sanctions against those (and maybe their immediate family members) in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee who voted "Aye" for the bill, and seize their investments, properties and holdings in China, if found. Since China can and has done the same for Pelosi and her immediate family, these people would be considered small fry.

Furthermore, unlike Russia, China is the 2nd largest economy in the world by Nominal measure and largest economy in the world by PPP measure.

I do believe China can use that advantage as a leverage and tool and inflict serious hurt to them in response.
It's not the same trap, Taiwan can't survive on its own, US can't just watch and reap the benefits.
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
It's not the same trap, Taiwan can't survive on its own, US can't just watch and reap the benefits.
He's talking about the economic war because with China intervening in Taiwan, the entire West would be sanctioning China as Russia currently has. That's the trap.
 

zbb

Junior Member
Registered Member
To start small, China could consider enacting sanctions against those (and maybe their immediate family members) in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee who voted "Aye" for the bill, and seize their investments, properties and holdings in China, if found. Since China can and has done the same for Pelosi and her immediate family, these people would be considered small fry.
I doubt these people have much if any investments or other holdings in China. However, political donation records are public in the US. Relatives of politicians, former political aides, and the politicians themselves after retirement also often sit on corporate boards or hold other lucrative private sector jobs. China can extend sanctions on politicians to any corporate interests connected with these politicians. Corporations (including their executives, senior employees, board members, and major shareholders) that donate to sanctioned politicians or hire people connected to sanctioned politicians (including relatives and former political aides) shall suffer consequences in their business in China. This will significantly reduce campaign financing to the sanctioned politicians as well as making sure that they and people connected to them suffer financial consequences for their anti-China actions.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
China should consider responding effectively and diligently, not just merely reacting.

The US is constantly daring China to fall into the same trap as Russia did, looking at how Russia is struggling to get out of it right now. China must hold firm and steady, and try not to fall for the same trap as Russia did on Ukraine for as long as possible.

To start small, China could consider enacting sanctions against those (and maybe their immediate family members) in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee who voted "Aye" for the bill, and seize their investments, properties and holdings in China, if found. Since China can and has done the same for Pelosi and her immediate family, these people would be considered small fry.

Furthermore, unlike Russia, China is the 2nd largest economy in the world by Nominal measure and largest economy in the world by PPP measure.

I do believe China can use that advantage as a leverage and tool and inflict serious hurt to them in response.
What trap? It is America who got trapped and had their EU's economy wrecked at essentially less than 0 cost for China.

In practice, the war for Taiwan has already been started, China should in fact not sanction US officials because such sanctions are useless if they only target officials. Officials are replaceable and it will not meaningfully prevent US invasion.

The first step to solving a crisis is ascertaining its true nature, mock outrage, moral arguments and so on are useless. Fortifying and building the military is the answer, by making China too difficult of a target, direct US attack will be deterred.

1. Enlargen the PLA, increase the amount of warships and air force. Set a legal target demanding the air force to deploy as many operational stealth fighters as the US military by 2030. Make sure the rocket force stays topped up on its most advanced missiles. Expand production capacity for most platforms.

2. Pursue collective defense. Ensure using economical/dual use and military deliveries that the current European front ends with at the very least a landlocked Ukraine.

3. Draw on civilian/volunteer efforts. Set up large volunteer funds for public companies and private individuals alike, allowing them to support the military buildup. Such a move might seem foolish because China already has enough money, but it is less about money and more about making civilians feel like they're participating in the struggle and to spread awareness of the national safety question.

4. Economic warfare should not be aimed at humiliating US officials, who have no shame anyways, but at strangling the US economy and depriving goods from them. Sanctions should ideally be saved for a late stage of the conflict, because they will eventually adjust and cope with shortages. Likewise, to increase preparation level around Taiwan province, it might be wise to order all shipping to be rerouted to Fujian province for security reasons first.

If you can build a state of art hospital in 7 days, you can build a DF-17 park in less than 70 days. China just needs to commit the same vigor towards combating US threat.
 
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