Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

That Tsai person, what an idiot as a leader.

The place is surrounded.

Their main patron, backs off.

All their strategy and plans, apparently it was the salami slicing, produces an untenable situation today for the Taiwan authorities.

Not only this is untenable for Taiwan militarily, it is untenable for TSMC too?!

WTF?

What idiots?!

Talk about being grossly outplayed.

Got to give credit for the PLA, PLAN, & PLAAF, and second artillery. Bring competence to the field, it changes the equation.

But since the South China Morning Post claims the could not even locate Pelosi's plane, dismissing China in one absurd go, then building up and bringing more competence into the field will never be easier.

There will be no push back.

Just more sanctions.

As we learned from the trade war and tech war, these are sanctions to nowhere.

========= =========

It is always about Clausewitz, IMO. You hit the center of gravity, where all the power derives from.

The Americans knew, the center of gravity of China, one is the economy. Well, the Trump team, had no clue. So that shot missed.

The Americans knew they have good technology, hence the tech war. What they do not know, is China, here is Sun Tzu making an appearance. What is the state of Chinese tech? Like duh. The tech war is the same result of the trade war. That shot missed too.

Go hit the center of gravity, and you miss twice.

Let's review Taiwan again. America has to go hit the center of gravity against China in this potential invasion. How many center of gravity do they got to attack in this war along the China coast?

How many American targets do the Chinese have to hit, in case the Americans come? And does the Chinese have the ability to hit them.

horse said:

That Tsai person, what an idiot as a leader.

Click to expand...

Bro I'm not sexist BUT seeing women in power, the decision making are mostly emotional and hysterical driven rather than rational decision with wisdom.

horse said:

How many American targets do the Chinese have to hit, in case the Americans come? And does the Chinese have the ability to hit them.

Click to expand...

Sink one carrier or two and see the American Prestige crashing down and with it the conflict make go nuclear cause for the US losing is not an option.

horse said:

The Americans are acting out of weakness, with this talk of more sanctions to prevent China from invading Taiwan.

Usually, throughout world history, a military situation involves military solutions. If the solution to this problem are only sanctions, American sanctions and not American military, we all know the commitment that the Americans really have to fight for Taiwan, which is zero.

All this noise, is to divert people's attention from the fact. That in this theater, the Americans are outgunned by the Chinese.

We all know that. Just that some people won't accept it.

Even with Taiwan surrounded like this, they still won't accept it, and will apply sanctions.

On some level, they already accepted it. Plus, they ain't gonna in large numbers for non-whites. Not again.

Click to expand...

I think the real question boils down to did the US build the right kind of military for a Taiwan conflict and do they think they have.

siegecrossbow said:

I think the real question boils down to did the US build the right kind of military for a Taiwan conflict and do they think they have.

Click to expand...

The answer for that is NO. What has the US military made or done ever since their draw down from the WOT in Iraq and Afghanistan? Have they changed or reorient their forces back to division level anchored with the training, intensity of tempo they once did back during the Cold War? Far more knowledgeable people on this subject matter, especially folks that have keen interest and follows American military would give us a fuller picture.

coolgod said:

Can anyone find the original Russian source for this HK news? It claims Russia said that Xi will meet Putin on 15th and discuss Ukraine and Taiwan issue. China wouldn't need to discuss Taiwan with any other country besides US, unless something big will happen.

Click to expand...

The Kremlin is saying it.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will discuss the Ukraine conflict in depth, as well as the Taiwan issue, when they meet in Uzbekistan later this week, presidential aide Yury Ushakov said on Tuesday. The two leaders will hold talks on the sidelines of the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in the city of Samarkand on September 15.

Click to expand...

Meanwhile, Ushakov said that China and Russia do not intend to sign any documents after the talks, stating that this is just “a working meeting of the leaders,” which is still very important.

Click to expand...

But it looks like Russia and China had some discussions over Taiwan less then a week ago. We didn’t pay much attention to the economic event because it happened at the same time during the Kharkiv Offensive.

Putin and XI are also set to discuss the issue of Taiwan, building on the Russian leader’s recent meeting with Li Zhanshu, the speaker of the Chinese National People’s Congress, during an economic forum in the eastern Russian city of Vladivostok.

Click to expand...

What would China discuss with Russia with regard to Taiwan? The reunification timeline? I don't see China discussing any recognition of disputed parts of Russia for anything to do with Taiwan. Russia's recognition of China's sovereignty over Taiwan post-reunification should be a given.

US Senate Committee Advances Bill Giving Taiwan $4.5Bln in Security Aid, $2Bln in Loans​

WASHINGTON (Sputnik) - The US Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Wednesday advanced the Taiwan Policy Act of 2022 that would provide the island with $4.5 billion in security aid and a $2 billion loan guarantee authority for the purchase of military equipment.
The lawmakers passed the bill, moving it for consideration by the full Senate, according to a statement by Foreign Relations Committee Ranking Member Jim Risch.

"We must get ahead of a future crisis and give Xi Jinping reasons to think twice about invading or coercing Taiwan. I hope the full Senate will vote on this legislation soon," the statement said.
The legislation would provide the security assistance over a period of four years and would designate Taiwan as a "Major Non-NATO Ally," according to a draft copy of the bill.
The bill would provide up to $2 billion in loan guarantees for foreign military financing as well.
The legislation also directs the US government to engage with the "democratic government of Taiwan" as the legitimate representative of the island’s inhabitants and prohibits restrictions on engagements between US officials and their Taiwanese counterparts.



5 September, 16:11 GMT
In addition, the bill calls on the US Secretary of State to allow the display of symbols of Taiwanese sovereignty by their officials, including their flag, and establishes "de facto diplomatic treatment for Taiwan equivalent to other foreign governments."
However, the bill’s actions are not to be construed as entailing restoration of diplomatic relations with Taiwan or altering the US position on its international status, the legislation said.
The bill reaffirms the Taiwan Relations Act and the Six Assurances, which have served as the foundation for relations between Washington, Taipei and Beijing.
The bill directs the US Secretary of Defense to establish a training program with Taiwan to improve defense capabilities and force interoperability; directs the Secretary of State to address disinformation and propaganda related to Taiwan and submit a strategy for addressing alleged economic coercion by China against countries who increase support for Taiwan.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What's the best play for China to counter? The Americans want China to go kinetic, so the retaliation should be something else. Never act the way your opponent wants you to. I had suggested passing a Chinese Jones Act to force all shipping bound for Taiwan to route to the mainland first, though China can also recall ambassadors/shut down consulates as well, maybe sanctions for the senators so they get the cold shoulder from the multinationals.

Bellum_Romanum said:

The answer for that is NO. What has the US military made or done ever since their draw down from the WOT in Iraq and Afghanistan? Have they changed or reorient their forces back to division level anchored with the training, intensity of tempo they once did back during the Cold War? Far more knowledgeable people on this subject matter, especially folks that have keen interest and follows American military would give us a fuller picture.

Click to expand...

Just to use as an example:

During any major conflict in the Pacific region involving the United States, Andersen Air Force Base on Guam would serve as a major hub for U.S. air operations, including acting as a valuable staging location for America's B-2, B-52, and B-1 bombers. Amid a growing emphasis on security concerns in the Pacific, in general, the Air Force wants to rectify something of a glaring gap in Andersen's infrastructure.

At present, the base lacks facilities to pre-load Common Rotary Launchers (CRL) for the service's bombers with cruise missiles and to store the launchers pre-loaded so they can be more readily installed on an aircraft as a single unit. Right now, ground crews can only load missiles one at a time onto launchers already installed in the bombers' bomb bays, a process that can take nearly half a day to complete.

Click to expand...

I don't know if this Guam infrastructure issue around the Common Strategic Rotary Launcher (CSRL) has been resolved, but such issue imposes the condition that a high-intensity conflict erupting, they wouldn't have that preparedness that the digital sphere claims. I say this because the US has returned to using bombers in Guam as a containment of North Korea and China as a photo from July 2022 shows:


Bombers are continually rotating into Guam for multilateral exercises.

horse said:

That Tsai person, what an idiot as a leader.

Click to expand...

No. She is very smart if her goal is power grabbing. Après moi, le déluge

Bellum_Romanum said:

The answer for that is NO. What has the US military made or done ever since their draw down from the WOT in Iraq and Afghanistan? Have they changed or reorient their forces back to division level anchored with the training, intensity of tempo they once did back during the Cold War? Far more knowledgeable people on this subject matter, especially folks that have keen interest and follows American military would give us a fuller picture.

Click to expand...

The US is currently reorienting their ground forces back to the division system with some elements of the BCT. Here is a link to that:
Battle Order has proven to be extremely accurate when it comes to describing US military TOE's.

In addition, there was a video on Instagram that showed a drone swarm that was used by the 1st Armored Division to attack a simulated enemy at Fort Irwin. So the US military isn't sitting on its hands and dreaming of their victories.

Whether or not the US divisions have been completely converted and are combat ready for a peer conflict is a different story, and I definitely do not know that.