Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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BMUFL

BMUFL

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Maikeru said:
Interesting times. Seems US is doing everything it can to provoke China into invading Taiwan ASAP.

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Paywalled. Your statement makes sense though. if the rhetoric of "China might be weaker than US now but in 10 years it won't be" is true. It is better to force your opponent to do something when they are not ready. In that way, there will potentially more errors from your opponent to exploit. Of course, this ignores the fact on the ground that (according to Patch, anyway) 7FLT is there more as a "suggestion" and will be deleted if this thing goes hot. And US don't actually the capability to generate arbitrary sorties that will have a noticable effect against PLA near Chinese coast..... But why let facts get in the way of a little war?

Everyone is fighting for completely different things here. China is fighting for "rejuvenation of the nation" and security (we don't need "Cuban missile crisis, but Chinese"). Taiwanese are "fighting" for their current ways of life, even though they wish, and currently acts like they will fight to the last American. Meanwhile, US is just trolling and will only fight to the last Taiwanese. This whole thing is stupid, and we are sleepwalking right into it.

Potentially, the most dangerous scenario would be a grand coalition of China, Russia, and perhaps Iran, an “anti-hegemonic” coalition united not by ideology but by complementary grievances.
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Well, it won't happen if US can embrace realism school of IR again. But of course, that requires the elected officials to actually sell this to the populace, and the populace has to at least tacitly tolelate it, which I think is harder than it sounds.
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

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BMUFL said:
Paywalled. Your statement makes sense though. if the rhetoric of "China might be weaker than US now but in 10 years it won't be" is true. It is better to force your opponent to do something when they are not ready. In that way, there will potentially more errors from your opponent to exploit. Of course, this ignores the fact on the ground that (according to Patch, anyway) 7FLT is there more as a "suggestion" and will be deleted if this thing goes hot. And US don't actually the capability to generate arbitrary sorties that will have a noticable effect against PLA near Chinese coast..... But why let facts get in the way of a little war?

Everyone is fighting for completely different things here. China is fighting for "rejuvenation of the nation" and security (we don't need "Cuban missile crisis, but Chinese"). Taiwanese are "fighting" for their current ways of life, even though they wish, and currently acts like they will fight to the last American. Meanwhile, US is just trolling and will only fight to the last Taiwanese. This whole thing is stupid, and we are sleepwalking right into it.


Well, it won't happen if US can embrace realism school of IR again. But of course, that requires the elected officials to actually sell this to the populace, and the populace has to at least tacitly tolelate it, which I think is harder than it sounds.
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We are at the stage where the elected officials need a splendid little war to take off some heat. Funny how the heads of state in Europe wanted a splendid little war 100 years ago. Instead, WWI.
 
delta115

delta115

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zhangjim said:
"Preventive sanctions"? That sounds great. They should pass this resolution immediately, so that no one in China will oppose military action.

In the past few months, the West has been claiming to impose sanctions on countries (such as China) that do not participate in sanctions against Russia. Now it seems that they are very eager to let us cooperate with Russia.
This will teach all Chinese that the West will not accept any negotiation terms except unconditional surrender.

But I do think it was a serious mistake to allow Perosi a successful visit , they don't let you off the hook just because you don't want to start a serious conflict.
Now I want to see if the leadership has real determination, military exercises alone can no longer contain Americans' offensive intentions, and the production speed of warships, fighter planes and nuclear weapons must be further improved.
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While it look like US will change their stance to be more agressive regarding Taiwan based on this sanction policy, this is nothing new.

US always try to find a way to sanction China even if they don't have a reason to they will make one anyway. The criteria for them is never about China agression to Taiwan, it's about their interest and only that.
 
B

Biscuits

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zhangjim said:
"Preventive sanctions"? That sounds great. They should pass this resolution immediately, so that no one in China will oppose military action.

In the past few months, the West has been claiming to impose sanctions on countries (such as China) that do not participate in sanctions against Russia. Now it seems that they are very eager to let us cooperate with Russia.
This will teach all Chinese that the West will not accept any negotiation terms except unconditional surrender.

But I do think it was a serious mistake to allow Perosi a successful visit , they don't let you off the hook just because you don't want to start a serious conflict.
Now I want to see if the leadership has real determination, military exercises alone can no longer contain Americans' offensive intentions, and the production speed of warships, fighter planes and nuclear weapons must be further improved.
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Ultimately, you should not lose track of the fact that the scenario of national defense is down to a race between China and USA.

China aims to cut down the time until first fortification of Taiwan Island, while US aims to cut down the time of first arrival of invading troops/weapons.

The clashes over Pelosi's illegal arrival improves (or even greatly improves) China's response speed while US' invasion speed remains the same as before. Therefore it is hard to argue it is anything except a complete victory for China.

The situation on China's East border has already devolved into the level of Crimea or Donbass. It is delusion to believe that it is still an internal Chinese affair between China and "rebels". Instead, it is a low intensity conflict against an America seeking expansion, where if China shows weakness in its defenses, America will try to grab territory. So questions of legality or optics should be thrown out of the window, the only thing that matters is victory, which is achieved by successively shortening the response time towards defending Taiwan, culminating in armed removal of rebels and then fortification of the island to make invasion impossible.
 
Z

zhangjim

Junior Member
Registered Member
Biscuits said:
Ultimately, you should not lose track of the fact that the scenario of national defense is down to a race between China and USA.

China aims to cut down the time until first fortification of Taiwan Island, while US aims to cut down the time of first arrival of invading troops/weapons.

The clashes over Pelosi's illegal arrival improves (or even greatly improves) China's response speed while US' invasion speed remains the same as before. Therefore it is hard to argue it is anything except a complete victory for China.

The situation on China's East border has already devolved into the level of Crimea or Donbass. It is delusion to believe that it is still an internal Chinese affair between China and "rebels". Instead, it is a low intensity conflict against an America seeking expansion, where if China shows weakness in its defenses, America will try to grab territory. So questions of legality or optics should be thrown out of the window, the only thing that matters is victory, which is achieved by successively shortening the response time towards defending Taiwan, culminating in armed removal of rebels and then fortification of the island to make invasion impossible.
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The only relief is that Taiwan Island has no land border, and the enemy can only deploy troops in advance before the conflict breaks out, or directly participate in the war. Otherwise, they cannot provide any military material assistance.

However, the biggest advantage of the United States is that they can break all rules without being blamed.
Maybe Americans will do something to break our imagination.
 
horse

horse

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zhangjim said:
Maybe Americans will do something to break our imagination.
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The Americans are acting out of weakness, with this talk of more sanctions to prevent China from invading Taiwan.

Usually, throughout world history, a military situation involves military solutions. If the solution to this problem are only sanctions, American sanctions and not American military, we all know the commitment that the Americans really have to fight for Taiwan, which is zero.

All this noise, is to divert people's attention from the fact. That in this theater, the Americans are outgunned by the Chinese.

We all know that. Just that some people won't accept it.

Even with Taiwan surrounded like this, they still won't accept it, and will apply sanctions.

On some level, they already accepted it. Plus, they ain't gonna in large numbers for non-whites. Not again.
 
B

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
zhangjim said:
The only relief is that Taiwan Island has no land border, and the enemy can only deploy troops in advance before the conflict breaks out, or directly participate in the war. Otherwise, they cannot provide any military material assistance.

However, the biggest advantage of the United States is that they can break all rules without being blamed.
Maybe Americans will do something to break our imagination.
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Well, so can China. As long as China takes step to raise readiness while US isn't raising their speed faster, then they have the overall advantage.
 
horse

horse

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Registered Member
Americans have two problems if they want to militarily intervene in Taiwan, to fight China basically, a short rant.

1. Is there enough force available? There was, in the past, because the Americans had better weapons and Taiwan had better weapons. Today, that answer is no. China has quality and quantity. When the invasion of Taiwan begins, if it happens, the Americans will not have enough force in place to do anything.

2. That leads into the second question, where the Americans do still have a large military, and can over time, bring more force to the theater. Are their forces survivable in this theater? The American reaction to the Chinese reaction to the Pelosi visit, tells the world what that answer is.

The Americans have a professional military. They do not do suicide missions.

That is the job for that Elensky fellow.
 
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