Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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siegecrossbow

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US Senate Committee Advances Bill Giving Taiwan $4.5Bln in Security Aid, $2Bln in Loans​

WASHINGTON (Sputnik) - The US Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Wednesday advanced the Taiwan Policy Act of 2022 that would provide the island with $4.5 billion in security aid and a $2 billion loan guarantee authority for the purchase of military equipment.
The lawmakers passed the bill, moving it for consideration by the full Senate, according to a statement by Foreign Relations Committee Ranking Member Jim Risch.

"We must get ahead of a future crisis and give Xi Jinping reasons to think twice about invading or coercing Taiwan. I hope the full Senate will vote on this legislation soon," the statement said.
The legislation would provide the security assistance over a period of four years and would designate Taiwan as a "Major Non-NATO Ally," according to a draft copy of the bill.
The bill would provide up to $2 billion in loan guarantees for foreign military financing as well.
The legislation also directs the US government to engage with the "democratic government of Taiwan" as the legitimate representative of the island’s inhabitants and prohibits restrictions on engagements between US officials and their Taiwanese counterparts.
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5 September, 16:11 GMT
In addition, the bill calls on the US Secretary of State to allow the display of symbols of Taiwanese sovereignty by their officials, including their flag, and establishes "de facto diplomatic treatment for Taiwan equivalent to other foreign governments."
However, the bill’s actions are not to be construed as entailing restoration of diplomatic relations with Taiwan or altering the US position on its international status, the legislation said.
The bill reaffirms the Taiwan Relations Act and the Six Assurances, which have served as the foundation for relations between Washington, Taipei and Beijing.
The bill directs the US Secretary of Defense to establish a training program with Taiwan to improve defense capabilities and force interoperability; directs the Secretary of State to address disinformation and propaganda related to Taiwan and submit a strategy for addressing alleged economic coercion by China against countries who increase support for Taiwan.
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What's the best play for China to counter? The Americans want China to go kinetic, so the retaliation should be something else. Never act the way your opponent wants you to. I had suggested passing a Chinese Jones Act to force all shipping bound for Taiwan to route to the mainland first, though China can also recall ambassadors/shut down consulates as well, maybe sanctions for the senators so they get the cold shoulder from the multinationals.

Not going to brush it off with cope, but this is major humiliation, even worse than Pelosi.

But it looks like the propaganda department has learned from the disaster of the Pelosi episode. News is covering the issue discreetly.
 

Temstar

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Not going to brush it off with cope, but this is major humiliation, even worse than Pelosi.

But it looks like the propaganda department has learned from the disaster of the Pelosi episode. News is covering the issue discreetly.
I don't see it as humiliation, you were expecting that China could lobby hard enough inside the US to prevent this?
The contest between China and US is often described as a game of chess or a game of cards, in which case you can't expect US to not move their pieces or play a hand. What's important is China's response.
 

luosifen

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Sputnik reported that China was able to stop a EU Intel chief from visiting, whatever that's supposed to be:

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The People’s Republic of China considers Taiwan an inseparable part of its territory, and has urged all countries which have relations with Beijing to refrain from official diplomatic contacts with authorities in Taipei, in accordance with the One China principle accepted by most of the international community.
European Union Intelligence and Situation Center (EUINTCEN) Director Jose Casimiro Morgado scrapped a planned visit to Taiwan after officials in Beijing found out about it, Politico has reported, citing
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with information about the situation.
The PRC reportedly put successful pressure on Brussels to cancel the trip, which was planned for next month. China’s discovery of Mr. Morgado’s planned itinerary also caused consternation about whether Beijing got the info about the top-secret visit via electronic or human intelligence, according to the outlet.

The anonymous diplomats also expressed concerns over the fact that Brussels folded so quickly after Beijing’s reported intervention.
An EU official assured Politico that Mr. Morgado never intended to travel to Taiwan at all, and that he merely planned a telephone conversation with Taiwanese officials. Even these talks have reportedly been scrapped after China’s blustery reaction to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan in early August, which sparked weeks of Chinese military exercises around the island.

Commenting on the Morgado scrapped visit story, a spokesperson from China’s mission to the EU stressed that Beijing “has consistently and firmly opposed any form of official exchanges between the Taiwan region and countries or organizations having diplomatic ties with China.”
Brussels has generally sought to avoid antagonizing China, with China-EU trade amounting to 696.1 billion euros in 2021, and the People’s Republic serving as the bloc’s number one trade and investment partner.
Late last year, Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu visited Brussels, with a delegation of lawmakers from the European Parliament
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with a trip to Taipei.
Lawmakers from individual EU countries also occasionally make their way to the island. Last week, five French lawmakers
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in Taipei, where they promised to discuss regional security, technology, supply chains, and French support for the rogue island.
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7 September, 13:24 GMT
Also last week, a delegation of US lawmakers arrived in Taiwan for a two-day visit as part of a wider tour of the region.
On Tuesday, a delegation of four Taiwanese lawmakers traveled to Washington, DC
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with US officials.
China has repeatedly urged all countries which maintain ties with Beijing to refrain from any official contacts with Taiwanese officials, in accordance with the One-China principle – which recognizes that the PRC is the sole legitimate government of China, and that Taiwan (which formally calls itself the "Republic of China") is a part of the PRC.
Taiwan kicked off weeks of military drills in August over Pelosi’s tour. The House speaker, who is technically third in line for the US presidency in the event that something were to happen to President Joe Biden or Vice President Kamala Harris, traveled to the island at the beginning of last month to espouse the virtues of American democracy.

This week, US media
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that the Biden administration is considering fresh sanctions against China aimed at “discouraging” Beijing from invading Taiwan, and that Washington and Taipei are pressuring the EU to join in on the new restrictions.
Chinese authorities have made the reunification of Taiwan with the mainland a major policy priority, with the hope being that reintegration takes place peacefully and under the "One China – Two Systems" model currently applied to Hong Kong and Macau. This would theoretically allow Taipei to maintain substantial political and economic autonomy even as part of China.
Taiwan has enjoyed de facto independence from mainland China since 1949, when nationalist forces fled to the island after communist forces took the rest of the country in the Chinese Civil War. In the decades since, Beijing and Taipei have slowly established major economic and informal diplomatic links, with total trade reaching
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in 2021 notwithstanding brewing geopolitical tensions.
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Guess the EU doesn't want the heating item imports cut just yet.
 

zhangjim

Junior Member
Registered Member
I don't see it as humiliation, you were expecting that China could lobby hard enough inside the US to prevent this?
The contest between China and US is often described as a game of chess or a game of cards, in which case you can't expect US to not move their pieces or play a hand. What's important is China's response.
It's only going to get worse.
The demonstration effect of the United States will inevitably lead to the imitation of other countries, and it will not even need to fire a bullet from Taiwan to obtain the "international status" it has dreamed of.
And what will the leadership do to persuade the people by then?
Is it really necessary to wait until Taiwan completely renews its arsenal? It would be irresponsible for the lives of people and soldiers, as the enemy would inevitably choose to attack cities to create panic, as Ukraine has demonstrated.
 

HumanHDMI

New Member
Registered Member
Paywalled. Your statement makes sense though. if the rhetoric of "China might be weaker than US now but in 10 years it won't be" is true. It is better to force your opponent to do something when they are not ready. In that way, there will potentially more errors from your opponent to exploit. Of course, this ignores the fact on the ground that (according to Patch, anyway) 7FLT is there more as a "suggestion" and will be deleted if this thing goes hot. And US don't actually the capability to generate arbitrary sorties that will have a noticable effect against PLA near Chinese coast..... But why let facts get in the way of a little war?

Everyone is fighting for completely different things here. China is fighting for "rejuvenation of the nation" and security (we don't need "Cuban missile crisis, but Chinese"). Taiwanese are "fighting" for their current ways of life, even though they wish, and currently acts like they will fight to the last American. Meanwhile, US is just trolling and will only fight to the last Taiwanese. This whole thing is stupid, and we are sleepwalking right into it.


Well, it won't happen if US can embrace realism school of IR again. But of course, that requires the elected officials to actually sell this to the populace, and the populace has to at least tacitly tolelate it, which I think is harder than it sounds.
12ft.io works for FT, and SCMP
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
I don't see it as humiliation, you were expecting that China could lobby hard enough inside the US to prevent this?
The contest between China and US is often described as a game of chess or a game of cards, in which case you can't expect US to not move their pieces or play a hand. What's important is China's response.

I think the response will be muted, or at least till the 20th Congress has concluded. One thing is for certain: anyone still calling for peaceful reunification may be considered traitorous.
 

HumanHDMI

New Member
Registered Member
The EU is still hoping for China to save them again like what happened post 2008, they are going to step more carefully around the issues. Like how the new forced labor ban is officially targeted at "all" sources of goods made with forced labor, not just Xinjiang. Once China opens back up, fully implements its new commitments to the ILO, and some third party audits can be conducted, it will go back to business as usual.

Considering that China seems to be heading in the direction of a new infrastructure package targeting data centers, hospitals and other "smart infrastructure", Europe desperately wants a slice. Its industries will need new orders in order to boost its trade surplus back up and restore the euro.
Sputnik reported that China was able to stop a EU Intel chief from visiting, whatever that's supposed to be:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The People’s Republic of China considers Taiwan an inseparable part of its territory, and has urged all countries which have relations with Beijing to refrain from official diplomatic contacts with authorities in Taipei, in accordance with the One China principle accepted by most of the international community.
European Union Intelligence and Situation Center (EUINTCEN) Director Jose Casimiro Morgado scrapped a planned visit to Taiwan after officials in Beijing found out about it, Politico has reported, citing
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
with information about the situation.
The PRC reportedly put successful pressure on Brussels to cancel the trip, which was planned for next month. China’s discovery of Mr. Morgado’s planned itinerary also caused consternation about whether Beijing got the info about the top-secret visit via electronic or human intelligence, according to the outlet.

The anonymous diplomats also expressed concerns over the fact that Brussels folded so quickly after Beijing’s reported intervention.
An EU official assured Politico that Mr. Morgado never intended to travel to Taiwan at all, and that he merely planned a telephone conversation with Taiwanese officials. Even these talks have reportedly been scrapped after China’s blustery reaction to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan in early August, which sparked weeks of Chinese military exercises around the island.

Commenting on the Morgado scrapped visit story, a spokesperson from China’s mission to the EU stressed that Beijing “has consistently and firmly opposed any form of official exchanges between the Taiwan region and countries or organizations having diplomatic ties with China.”
Brussels has generally sought to avoid antagonizing China, with China-EU trade amounting to 696.1 billion euros in 2021, and the People’s Republic serving as the bloc’s number one trade and investment partner.
Late last year, Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu visited Brussels, with a delegation of lawmakers from the European Parliament
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
with a trip to Taipei.
Lawmakers from individual EU countries also occasionally make their way to the island. Last week, five French lawmakers
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
in Taipei, where they promised to discuss regional security, technology, supply chains, and French support for the rogue island.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

7 September, 13:24 GMT
Also last week, a delegation of US lawmakers arrived in Taiwan for a two-day visit as part of a wider tour of the region.
On Tuesday, a delegation of four Taiwanese lawmakers traveled to Washington, DC
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
with US officials.
China has repeatedly urged all countries which maintain ties with Beijing to refrain from any official contacts with Taiwanese officials, in accordance with the One-China principle – which recognizes that the PRC is the sole legitimate government of China, and that Taiwan (which formally calls itself the "Republic of China") is a part of the PRC.
Taiwan kicked off weeks of military drills in August over Pelosi’s tour. The House speaker, who is technically third in line for the US presidency in the event that something were to happen to President Joe Biden or Vice President Kamala Harris, traveled to the island at the beginning of last month to espouse the virtues of American democracy.

This week, US media
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
that the Biden administration is considering fresh sanctions against China aimed at “discouraging” Beijing from invading Taiwan, and that Washington and Taipei are pressuring the EU to join in on the new restrictions.
Chinese authorities have made the reunification of Taiwan with the mainland a major policy priority, with the hope being that reintegration takes place peacefully and under the "One China – Two Systems" model currently applied to Hong Kong and Macau. This would theoretically allow Taipei to maintain substantial political and economic autonomy even as part of China.
Taiwan has enjoyed de facto independence from mainland China since 1949, when nationalist forces fled to the island after communist forces took the rest of the country in the Chinese Civil War. In the decades since, Beijing and Taipei have slowly established major economic and informal diplomatic links, with total trade reaching
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
in 2021 notwithstanding brewing geopolitical tensions.
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Guess the EU doesn't want the heating item imports cut just yet.

.
 
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