It seems unlikely that it will pass without amendments. If they actually end the one China policy, then China has to end diplomatic relations with the US, otherwise the whole world will think they can have embassies in Taipei and Beijing at the same time
Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
- Thread starter sndef888
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国台办 can help.
The One China policy has already been hollowed out. Taiwan is already an independent country.
If the core tenets of the bill remain unchanged, then Taiwan basically becomes a Non-NATO ally. China will be forced to act.
WTF? He never voluntarily joined the Japanese Imperial Army, he only went to a Japanese military academy.
If the wargame reveals the thinking in the US military, then the road to victory is clear. A quick fait accompli.
They imagine defending Taiwan by containing the PLA to beachheads with American and Japanese troops helping ROC fighters. If the PLA establishes a beachhead and secures the surrounding area, then it's too late for the US to stop the eventual Chinese victory.
Every single day of progress for China will increase the cost of an American intervention on Taiwan. If progress is advanced enough by the time that the US can make a decision, then they'll be forced to conclude that it's too late to fight and they'll stick to sanctions.
It also shows how crucial it is to time any attack well. An exercise in response to pro independence statements from the ROC government could evolve into an attack, but it might be better to launch a surprise attack when the US is least able to respond. Civil war caused by Trump, a tsunami in Japan or even the Christmas holidays might be such good opportunities
The article didn't disclose any details, so we don't know whether the following words are "politically correct"：
I have not paid attention to other simulations conducted by the United States. Did the Americans imagine the scene of fighting with Russia in Ukraine?
Wargames conducted by Americans always seem to set some strange strategic goals, which are based on treating China as another Iraq.
The previous military exercises are really meaningful. If we really don't do anything, Americans really dare to let the army enter Taiwan.
I always feel like I see too many people retelling such cliches. It makes me feel like it's an arms ad.
I don't know the details, but the plan to attack the transport fleet means that the Americans may create the illusion that they will not intervene at first, and then launch a surprise attack when the army starts to land.
If the most probably case scenario is over 500 aircrafts gone, then I am betting $100 US will sit out. Taiwan is virtually indefensible in the long run.
Reason number 1 why a first strike against the US is a necessity.
There is no other way around it, if you really think that the PLA is going to risk its amphibious fleet getting sank to the bottom of the sea by the Americans because they chickened out from doing a first strike against them, then I got a bridge to sell you
First strike or bust.
Mind you, first strike only if military operations have begun. If its only about blockades and such, it doesn't count.
DPP is really good at playing electoral politics and mud slinging, KMT not even close. Among DPP Tsai is particularly gifted at this, she's a prodigy at this game of thrones thing.
But it's sort of the only talent she has. She doesn't actually know how to do anything else like govern and solve Taiwan's problems. You consider the actual problems facing Taiwan:
- regular electricity outage
- unreliable water supply
- aging railway with many accidents
- very high economic dependency on China
- falling birth rate
In that regard, Tsai is actually helping reunification and hence why I sometimes joke she's an 峨嵋峰 or CPC mole. If she ran the place really well it would actually make post reunification rule very hard as people fondly reminiscent about the good old DPP days. But instead she's actually running the island into the ground which makes post reunification socialist reform easier.
These war games are done for propaganda reasons and not really serious study of probable events. If the U.S. were to fight the Chinese in case they go for Armed Reunion, the carriers are going to get hit before the planes are in range, so no carriers. Asides from that, there are only a few airports out of the first island chain and the Philippines that can even reach Taiwan. They will all be bombed. How many sorties can the U.S. launched before these airports are out? It will fall very far short of 500 aircrafts shot down before any of these airports are not useable.
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