Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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Abominable

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A situation where China attacks America or vice versa is very unlikely for the reason it would quickly escalate to a full blown nuclear war.

There's two possible scenarios.
1. Both China and USA complete and undermine each others political system until one collapses.
2. One side develops a technology that undermines MAD.

Basically a Cold War 2.0.

The Cold war ended through (1) but if it happens again the defeated nation will be denuclearised. I don't think anyone will want to repeat what happened with Russia.
 
Temstar

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
Firstly there was this:
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Opposition Kuomintang (KMT) Vice Chairman Andrew Hsia (夏立言), who is on a multi-city visit to China to meet with Taiwanese who live and work there, will not meet with Liu Jieyi (劉結一), director of China's Taiwan Affairs Office, KMT Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) said Wednesday.
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But then:
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Of course he didn't meet with the Director of TAO, he is afterall only the Vice Chairman, therefore he should and did meet with the Deputy Director instead.

I don't think KMT know what they're doing.
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
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Excerpts from the Financial Times

ft.com/content/a1d1548b-35c4-4bcc-9216-d6e4502ea414
archive.ph/BDruJ#selection-2079.0-2101.76

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“The status quo has been reset in ways less favourable to the US and Taiwan, and there are no good options for the US to respond to this,” said Ashley Townshend, senior fellow for Indo-Pacific security at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think-tank.“The status quo has been reset in ways less favourable to the US and Taiwan, and there are no good options for the US to respond to this,”

Analysts say the PLA’s moves help China to underpin its claim of sovereignty over the island. “Their presence in the waters and airspace around Taiwan demonstrates that they can control it if they wish to,” said Kristen Gunness, an expert on the PLA at the Rand Corporation think-tank. She also sees this as a signal from Beijing that it could impose a quarantine regime under which China would control all air and sea trade in and out of Taiwan if it wanted to.

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Townshend added that the relative decline of US military power in Asia and the Pacific made things worse. “There is a tension between [President Joe Biden’s] rhetoric of having a commitment to defend Taiwan and the reality of US forces being increasingly poorly prepared to do that at an acceptable cost and risk,” he said. “In the past, it was a question of will, not capacity, what the US would do to protect Taiwan. Now it’s both.”

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Against that background, the US Navy’s next Taiwan Strait transit will take on unusual significance. Some experts said options for stepping up deterrence against China included sailing more ships through the waters than usual, doing so together with allies or even sending an aircraft carrier.

A senior Japanese official said the US and Japan should demonstrate their determination to prevent Chinese aggression. “We should not allow China to create a new normal,” the official said, adding that US-Japan joint exercises needed to “deter the creation of a new normal in this area”.

But Tokyo is an outlier. Japan would be directly affected by conflict over Taiwan because it hosts bases that US forces would use to intervene in a war and its westernmost islands could become a staging ground for US Marines to enter Taiwan during a Chinese attack.

“Our other allies dislike the idea of a more robust response now,” said a US diplomat in the region.
As a result, Taiwanese hopes for a more muscular US response may be in vain.
 
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AndrewS

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dengyeye said:
The japs owe China a blood debt. Until that debt is paid off, Sino-Japanese relations cannot turn a new page. 20 million Chinese perished at the hands of Imperial Japan. I am curious to see how the PLA returns the favor, which it certainly will at some point in the future when China is ready.
Click to expand...

If Japan recognises China over the USA, there is no point in treating Japan harshly.

Japan would be China's most loyal and influential ally on the global stage.
 
Temstar

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
AndrewS said:
Excerpts from the Financial Times

ft.com/content/a1d1548b-35c4-4bcc-9216-d6e4502ea414
archive.ph/BDruJ#selection-2079.0-2101.76

---

“The status quo has been reset in ways less favourable to the US and Taiwan, and there are no good options for the US to respond to this,” said Ashley Townshend, senior fellow for Indo-Pacific security at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think-tank.“The status quo has been reset in ways less favourable to the US and Taiwan, and there are no good options for the US to respond to this,”

Analysts say the PLA’s moves help China to underpin its claim of sovereignty over the island. “Their presence in the waters and airspace around Taiwan demonstrates that they can control it if they wish to,” said Kristen Gunness, an expert on the PLA at the Rand Corporation think-tank. She also sees this as a signal from Beijing that it could impose a quarantine regime under which China would control all air and sea trade in and out of Taiwan if it wanted to.

---

Townshend added that the relative decline of US military power in Asia and the Pacific made things worse. “There is a tension between [President Joe Biden’s] rhetoric of having a commitment to defend Taiwan and the reality of US forces being increasingly poorly prepared to do that at an acceptable cost and risk,” he said. “In the past, it was a question of will, not capacity, what the US would do to protect Taiwan. Now it’s both.”

---

Against that background, the US Navy’s next Taiwan Strait transit will take on unusual significance. Some experts said options for stepping up deterrence against China included sailing more ships through the waters than usual, doing so together with allies or even sending an aircraft carrier.

A senior Japanese official said the US and Japan should demonstrate their determination to prevent Chinese aggression. “We should not allow China to create a new normal,” the official said, adding that US-Japan joint exercises needed to “deter the creation of a new normal in this area”.

But Tokyo is an outlier. Japan would be directly affected by conflict over Taiwan because it hosts bases that US forces would use to intervene in a war and its westernmost islands could become a staging ground for US Marines to enter Taiwan during a Chinese attack.

“Our other allies dislike the idea of a more robust response now,” said a US diplomat in the region.
As a result, Taiwanese hopes for a more muscular US response may be in vain.
Click to expand...
I don't understand how Japanese officials can say "we should not allow China to create a new normal" when this:
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Is going on

If they want to show off your military might they've had plenty of opportunity.
 
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AndrewS

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Temstar said:
I don't understand how Japanese officials can say "we should not allow China to create a new normal" when this:
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Is going on

If they want to show off your military might they've had plenty of opportunity.
Click to expand...

Japanese officials are simply in denial.

They really don't want to accept that Japan's future likely lies with China.
So they cling on even tighter to the USA.
 
B

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
Feima said:
Why would China ever consider conquering Guam and Hawaii? It will be a poor world for China to displace US as the top power and then to behave like the US hegemon did.

Remember Mao's dictum: 只打蒋舰，不打美舰, "only strike Chiang Kai Shek's ships, don't strike US ships". Back then when this happened, US ships turned tail and departed the battle scene. This is also a possible outcome during AR.
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It all depends on US behavior. If they only do verbal threats but never actually commit to military aggression, China doesn't need to involve them at all.

Should US invade, why should China not push into full war industry mode and push US back as far as possible until US is forced to use nuclear ultimatum? Would the USSR have stopped at Poland?

China may not need to go as far as Hawaii, but definitely Guam and Okinawa should be counter claimed if Japan and US claim Taiwan.

In the first place, China follows the international law system, and in that system, nowhere did China sign a law recognizing USA as "hegemon" or whatever. Maybe there is such a clause inside the NATO Axis, but no lawmaker in China has consented to such a thing. Therefore if US involves itself in someone else's civil war or claims new territory, that is viewed as simple territorial aggression. And when such a move is militarily backed by Imperial Japanese, it is viewed as fascist aggression.

Repelling such moves isn't seeking hegemony, it is the foundation of the post WW2 order.
 
R

Ringsword

Junior Member
Registered Member
Minm said:
If the US is busy retaking Hawaii or defending Florida they can't interfere on Taiwan at the same time. The goal isn't to destroy the enemy, just direct his attention elsewhere. Of course it will take a long time until the PLA can consider conquering Guam and Hawaii
Click to expand...
I can even tell you the day or the week China will AR TW-It's the day Israel attacks Iran's nuclear facilities (Matanz?)then all of the ME,Europe will go up in flames and then the opportunity is there.
AndrewS said:
If Japan recognises China over the USA, there is no point in treating Japan harshly.

Japan would be China's most loyal and influential ally on the global stage.
Click to expand...
Tang Dynasty all over again??I doubt it as China should never,ever trust Japan-I am all for true reconciliation,trade,cultural exchanges,tourism-BUT the Chinese hand never leaves the sword(shades of Samurai-bushido!!!)
 
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