Bro I think you made a wrong assumption, what I'm advocating is to threaten the US line of communication and logistic in the Second Island Chain and Pacific in general that will be GUAM and Hawaii. With US superiority in Second Island Chain, with submarine, we can take the fight in enemy territory and to disperse their already limited asset further out.
Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
- Thread starter sndef888
- Start date
- Status
In a full cold war scenario the following article predicts Australia’s export income would fall 55%.
An actual kinetic conflict would leave Australia with the hard choice of breaking ties with the USA or face an economic depression.
Japan and South Korea would have a worst choice as they are within range of a lot more ordinance than Australia. There are probably only a few targets is Australia worth the class of ordinance that would be required to strike them at such distance.
India may help from the side lines but not to the level they get drawn into actually fighting. They are not going to open a second front in the Himalayas. I doubt India would ever risk a war with China as long as Pakistan and China are close.
South Korea would like to disappear from the whole show. North Korea close with China is a big threat against being involved in any war against China. Just about every under ground car park in Soul has an bomb shelter sign above the entrance. I dont know if it's a coincidence that the Soul's largest mall near the center of the city is under several blocks square with 4 or 5 shopping levels under ground. South Korea would keep the status quo with USA forces stationed in South Korea. I wouldn't be surprised if they demanded any forces currently based in Korea that the USA wished to deploy against China would have to return to the USA before deployment to Japan/Guam etc
UK if the Torries are in power hell yeah, other wise maybe some logistics or some vietnam era ballsie hell no
Japan current politics and for the foreseeable future the USA would undoubtedly be able to use it bases in Japan. Whether the JSDF participated in kinetics would depend on what politic spin could be applied, it might be hard spin joining the USA against China because China attacked Taiwan. However preemptive attacks by China on US naval bases, especially ones in Japan would almost gaurentee the JSDF playing an active part.
I think it is highly unlikely China will strike the US forces as part of AR. China unless cornered is not going for AR unless it knows it is the dominate force against the assets the USA could muster.
If the USA and friends would just stop picking the scab of the wound that is the Taiwan issue, eventually it will heal and Taiwan will be assimilated into China
In the medium term at least all trends favour China. US knows this, so for them if a war is to come then better sooner than later, whilst USA still enjoys military/technological advantages over China. I don't think this is administration wide but certainly some in DC will try to use Taiwan issue to provoke China into a war. Others - hopefully the majority - know the risks are too high.
Breaking ties with US would be unthinkable at this point for Aus. I say this more confidently now. 10-15 years ago I still think it's 50 50. Now no chance. In the future, no one can say so I'm not gonna predict.
Aus is basically owned by US corporations, the Aus media parrots US narrative, the Aus leadership under the thumb of Washington. right now they will sink or swim with US unfortunately. Will aus get involved in Taiwan conflict? I think it depends on how that conflict plays out. The ethnic Chinese here will probably get targeted too, the media in Aus has been preparing the public for that for years now, increasing sinophobia, paranoia about spies and chinese influence in domestic affairs. A full blown war china and our puppetmaster, US will definitely escalate things further.
This current Taiwan Crisis is not over yet, IMHO and estimation.
Consider this, the 1st island chain, the 2nd island chain, the 3rd island chain.
If the PLAN is doing routine patrols on the east side of Taiwan, and still under cover of DF missiles, and doing routine air combat patrols too, all around Taiwan ... then what are we suppose to make of this 1st island chain?
Guess the 1st island chain is still there, and still good for something. Defending Taiwan is not one of them.
This should be a priority to normalize in my armchair opinion. On this point, the Americans already ceded it, mainland China should grab that space. The Americans only interested in sending old senile politicians to Taiwan, and not do real military stuff where someone can get hurt.
Imagine that. Obviating the median line, and making PLAN patrols on the east side of Taiwan routine thereby establishing a permanent presence on the other side of the 1st island chain.
Did we see how that happened? How they are changing the status quo? Look at exactly what they did? Which is they did not fire a shot!
Haha!
Consider this, the 1st island chain, the 2nd island chain, the 3rd island chain.
If the PLAN is doing routine patrols on the east side of Taiwan, and still under cover of DF missiles, and doing routine air combat patrols too, all around Taiwan ... then what are we suppose to make of this 1st island chain?
Guess the 1st island chain is still there, and still good for something. Defending Taiwan is not one of them.
This should be a priority to normalize in my armchair opinion. On this point, the Americans already ceded it, mainland China should grab that space. The Americans only interested in sending old senile politicians to Taiwan, and not do real military stuff where someone can get hurt.
Imagine that. Obviating the median line, and making PLAN patrols on the east side of Taiwan routine thereby establishing a permanent presence on the other side of the 1st island chain.
Did we see how that happened? How they are changing the status quo? Look at exactly what they did? Which is they did not fire a shot!
Haha!
The japs owe China a blood debt. Until that debt is paid off, Sino-Japanese relations cannot turn a new page. 20 million Chinese perished at the hands of Imperial Japan. I am curious to see how the PLA returns the favor, which it certainly will at some point in the future when China is ready.
Definitely agree BUT the key is NO attack on US bases etc as to trigger a full scale China-USA war -in an TW AR scenario and is very possible with the now defacto semi-blockade of TW .Never give an opponent what they want-BTW TW just announced 19Billion defence package-best hurry .
If the US is busy retaking Hawaii or defending Florida they can't interfere on Taiwan at the same time. The goal isn't to destroy the enemy, just direct his attention elsewhere. Of course it will take a long time until the PLA can consider conquering Guam and Hawaii
Why would China ever consider conquering Guam and Hawaii? It will be a poor world for China to displace US as the top power and then to behave like the US hegemon did.
Remember Mao's dictum: 只打蒋舰，不打美舰, "only strike Chiang Kai Shek's ships, don't strike US ships". Back then when this happened, US ships turned tail and departed the battle scene. This is also a possible outcome during AR.
- Status