Bro he need to earn his paycheck, so forgive him, once China initiated a blockade and sunk a Carrier he will sing a different tune like the one below.
Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
- Thread starter sndef888
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That presupposes that these countries are willing to be in a permanent state of war with China, which is highly unlikely.
Firstly, how are they sure that China will agree to fight them only around Taiwan. Even if China does not strike at US homeland in retaliation, what makes these other countries sure that China won't strike *them*, especially Japan?
Secondly, the fighting around AR will end at some point. These countries still have to live with China after that. Say China repels the intervention and completes retaking Taiwan. Then what? Do they just say GG to China and try to go back to life prior to AR? Or, suppose China fails in the first attempt because of their intervention. I doubt CPC will fall because of that. More likely, whole of China will galvanize behind CPC for round 2. Like LKY once said on this matter, China will keep coming back and eventually China will win.
Of course China should plan for the worst case scenario, but I don't think such a scenario will come to pass.
Bro your analysis is on point BUT you forget the Mighty Royal Navy, their Carriers will be use to escort and provide CAP with borrowed F35.
As long as China hasnt jammed the satellittle comms and Brits can still get their activation codes from their own renogade colony every day to keep flying the leased rental F35Bro your analysis is on point BUT you forget the Mighty Royal Navy, their Carriers will be use to escort and provide CAP with borrowed F35.
Bro of the 5 eyes only Australia is in for a fight BUT at the very rear...lol You see SCS is a Chinese lake, The Royal Navy and the so called Powerful Indian Sepoy Navy will have to traverse it, taking heavy casualties even before reaching their goal of taking an offensive on Hainan Island...lol. The really battle is on the Second Island Chain and definitely GUAM will be saturated with missile attack. IF you take out GUAM the US can't sustain its logistic as Japan might have a rethink as most supplies like oil and materials will be traversing the SCS.
And here while I support the Chinese Carrier program, there is a need to prioritized the SSN program and mass produce it, together with hypersonic missile, we need to take the fight on our term and in American backyard.
In my view the big question is whether the PLARF will conduct a first strike on US bases in Japan as a prelude to AR. If a first strike happens on US bases in Japan then the conflict would escalate out of control very quickly, and there's not really a viable path of de-escalation unless the PLA decivisely destroys US presence within the Second Island Chain. The US can force Japan to go to war, willingly or not, through the US-Japan Defence Treaty.
Previously I was of the opinion that the PLA might conduct a first strike to take out the 7th Fleet and the USAF in Japan, but that was coming from a place of inconfidence as I was not sure that the PLA would be able to win a sustained conflict with the US. Now I am confident that there's enough deterrence from the PLA that the US won't actually meddle with AR.
Bro my view, China will not attack Japan unless Chinese cities and territory is attack coming from those US bases. The Japanese are not stupid cause a war with China will open a three front war with NK lobbying missile and the Russian at the North. They will provide supplies and want to contain the conflict within the Taiwan proper.
Bro the US want a war in Chinese backyard, the Chinese instead need to take the fight in American backyard, in this way you inflict pain on the main protagonist instead of the peripheries.
antiterror13
Brigadier
The huge size of nuclear warheads Russia has, also a big factor
PRC doesn't seek the destruction of the US. The end of US hegemony isn't existential to the US itself. There's no need to attack the US mainland.
In an ideal world Japan should abrogate its security treaty with the US. That would enable Sino-Japanese relationships to turn a new page and wash away the stains of the past. It would also guarantee that there's no possible conflagration should AR occur.
I was listening to Xi Yazhou's podcast where he interviewed something of an expert on nuclear weapon matters and he said the highest yield in service warheads are Chinese and are multi-megaton unitary warheads on top of DF-5. He said they are intended for extremely hardened targets like Cheyenne Mountain Complex. For cities MIRV is indeed better.
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