Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

Petrolicious88 said:

No the stimulation concluded that PLA must deploy all of its troops. If it only deploys the Eastern Theater Command, it will be defeated in the first round.

Click to expand...

Yes and I just ran a simulation on my computer showing that I can win with just the western theater command! Lol

I don't know why we are even talking about the CSIS simulation. It's for entertainment. It makes a lot of "Assumptions" and uses outdated tactics. How many of those playing the simulation are actually military men and not armchair generals? Why would china go straight for an amphibious landing? Using that simulation as a comparison is literally useless mental masturbation at its finest. Like arguing who had stronger ships, star trek or star wars.

Anyone remember this guy from the "Foundation for Defense of Democracies" talking about how China is more or less doomed: "China’s economy, long in decline, is now in free-fall [... China] cannot afford to compete at all."?

Well, , this time admitting that Pelosi's trip to Taiwan... backfired? And that Beijing put on a "a master class in strategy and tactics".

Huh.

I think that much of the author's apparent handbrake turn can be attributed to partisan political preferences, i.e. Biden/Pelosi bad, Reagan good. But still.

Lethe said:

Anyone remember this guy from the "Foundation for Defense of Democracies" talking about how China is more or less doomed: "China’s economy, long in decline, is now in free-fall [... China] cannot afford to compete at all."?

Well,

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

, this time admitting that Pelosi's trip to Taiwan... backfired? And that Beijing put on a "a master class in strategy and tactics".

Huh.

I think that much of the author's apparent handbrake turn can be attributed to partisan political preferences, i.e. Biden/Pelosi bad, Reagan good. But still.

Click to expand...

I think China's response to Pelosi was underwhelming, but so was the American response to China's response.

They backed down from their threat to send USS Ronald Reagan through the straits. Despite the bitchfest from both sides on twitter, there seems to be very little actual diplomatic fall out. Not a single diplomat has been declared PNG on either side. Compare that to Russia-NATO relations where diplomats were being expelled over anything even before the war. There's talk about reducing lines of dialogue but I don't think they were talking much before.

As things stand it seems most of the fallout will be borne by Taiwan through sanctions and more sorties, US-China relations won't change much.

Nobo said:

You shouldn't under estimate their simulation power. There are also other stuffs that you need to take into account.
1 . Experience. They have lots lots experience. You only do exercise. You need to invade other countries to have real experience.
2. They have got stronkk logistics. You see how poor Russian military logistics is? Have you see that from Utopian military when they were at "war" against super power like ISIS navy,taliban air force, boko haram special commandos?

Click to expand...

Good summary on why it's more like entertainment than real life. There will undoubtedly be some similarities but as I mentioned it's more for domestic consumption than real life strategy.

ironborn said:

Regard to that ’retarded’ CSIS war game, that’s US and Japan combined forces despite losing 2 carriers and 900+ planes, barely beat China, but still lost southern Taiwan to PLA. But, here comes the ’but’, the PLA forces in that ’war game’ is only consists of Eastern command, not the entire PLA. Now, tell me someone isn’t on some kind of drugs when this so called ‘wargame’ is being played out.

Click to expand...

I suppose what we can deduce from this, if the simulation has some truth to it, is that the ETC is only slightly weaker to the combined forces of the US INDOPACOM, Japan, and Taiwan. The ETC is no doubt the strongest of the PLA's theatre commands as expected, even without being equipped with Type 055s or Nuke subs currently.

Nobo said:

You shouldn't under estimate their simulation power. There are also other stuffs that you need to take into account.
1 . Experience. They have lots lots experience. You only do exercise. You need to invade other countries to have real experience.
2. They have got stronkk logistics. You see how poor Russian military logistics is? Have you see that from Utopian military when they were at "war" against super power like ISIS navy,taliban air force, boko haram special commandos?

Click to expand...

In the US defense, not that I endorse their actions, with current logistical capacity no other country even comes close to parity with their ability to airlift vast amounts of hardware halfway across the globe within 72 hours. Honestly waging COIN ops on the other end of the globe with no deteoriation to capabilities is pretty impressive.

MortyandRick said:

Good summary on why it's more like entertainment than real life. There will undoubtedly be some similarities but as I mentioned it's more for domestic consumption than real life strategy.

Click to expand...

Most interesting part of the article is that it says the 2 D&D war games completely discount China EW capabilities. They don’t even factor that in at all.

While all the above-mentioned EW formats and China’s decade-long EW training can all be found in public reports, the two wargame projects rather bizarrely lack of any mention of China’s EW capability and, therefore, turned a 2020s high-tech cross-domain joint military operation into an oversimplified tabletop showcase.

Click to expand...

It’s like doing a WW2 simulation but you discount the use of air power in the games.

MortyandRick said:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Good summary on why it's more like entertainment than real life. There will undoubtedly be some similarities but as I mentioned it's more for domestic consumption than real life strategy.

Click to expand...

What the hell is the “anti-radiation radar” the author was yapping about?

vincent said:

What the hell is the “anti-radiation radar” the author was yapping about?

Click to expand...

?? Where did it say anything about anti radiation radar? Can you copy the part that mentions it?

vincent said:

What the hell is the “anti-radiation radar” the author was yapping about?

Click to expand...

Can you post the paragraph from the article? Because word searching “anti, radiation, or radar” shows nothing. I even skimmed through it and I can’t find any mentions of those 3 specific words.