Expectations management...
Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
- Thread starter sndef888
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If China’s intention is to take Taiwan and PREVENT US intervention, then why would China preemptively strike US forces in 1st ans 2nd island chain?? That guarantees US retaliation.
So no China will not fire the first shot against the US.
If AR has to happen prematurely then I believe that the PLA will do a first strike against US assets in the region
No way the PLA will do an amphibious landing while US military assets are circling like wolves. Better to knock them out at the beginning in order to ensure a safe landing and minimise possible risks.
Unprovoked attacked against Guam, PH, Diego Garcia, etc.. would be a strategic mistake. What follows next is global sanctions, UN condemnation, and large scale US mobilization for war.
—China’s decade long A2/AD strategy is built upon deterrence and shaping of peacetime environment to achieve strategic goals without resorting to military force.
—The more likely scenario is a semi-blockade to choke Taiwan into submission. This places rhe burden of escalation on US and allied forces. Is the US going to attack China to break the blockade?! That’s a Much more difficult scenario for the US.
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Hard disagree here bud. Why would you preemptively attack the U.S. forces on the periphery purely from the concerns and insecure assumptions that "they might attack" doing so would pretty much guarantee the Americans war mobilization efforts on not just defeating China in Taiwan but all the way through a.k.a. WWIII. Not to mention the ramifications of such unprovoke attack would galvanize or give it's reluctant allies in Asia to join the fight; along with a potential fall out diplomatically all over the world.
For me, it's better that U.S. fires the first shot or draw the first blood against China, that way there's no moral equivocation from U.S. allies or would be allies especially in Asia to be used for their defense. China would be seen globally as being on the right side of history, it's actions within or in accordance to international law and not the nonsensical "rules based order" parroted by the West and her lackeys.
What you advocate for is a self-defeating strategy ensuring China's victory will come at a huge price for it's reputation and thereby creating an environment of permanent insecurity even if it managed to beat the U.S. within her periphery.
Am with @Petrolicious88 on this one. I just don't see any strategic advantages for China to be had doing a preemptive attack on American forces. Why would we want to provide America and Americans a raison d'etre against China? To provide them an opportunity to coalesce together and found their greatest single purpose? NuTS
In war there is no incorrect or insecure. There are only possibilities. In my view, if the PLA assess that there is a >15% chance that US intervenes in a AR, and somehow AR has to happen prematurely (Provocations, salami slicing, accident), then it will strike at American forces.
As I have said, and I have still not seen anyone countering it yet, the PLA isn't going to do an amphibious landing while the US is ready to strike at any moment to (try to) sink the fleet. So, not "concerns" or "insecure assumptions", this is my assessment.
That's only if AR has to happen prematurely. Otherwise, a blockade and tempting Taiwan/US to fire the first shot is a viable tactic only if the PLA is ready to execute such mission while guaranteeing that they have the means to fight off the US Military in the Pacific (not only in a first strike but in a sustained fight against it and its puppets)
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--If a decision is made to take Taiwan by military force in the next 5 years, then:
1). A large scale missile strike on Taiwanese military and strategic civilian infrastructure would happen first, possibly lasting for a week or more. PLAN is not going to do a D-Day style invasion.
2). A blockade would be enforced to prevent Ukrainian style replenishments for Taiwan. Taiwanese economy would collapse. Oil, food, iron and other materials needed for war would run dry. Taiwan would have no choice but to negotiate for peace/surrender.
3). Chinese A2AD assets would try to keep US forces 1000 km or more away from the conflict zone. Direct contact would happen if US tries to break that bubble by attacking Chinese assets first. What happens next then becomes a prediction based on actual strength of PLA vis-a-vie US (no one knows for sure until actual fighting starts, and extent of US commitment to Taiwan). This is where the classified war games run by both China and the Pentagon are focused on.
--A preemptive strike on US forces in Japan, Korea, PH, Diego Garcia, etc... is highly unlikely unless PLA believes it has achieved overwhelming superiority against US forces. That hasn't happened yet, and likely won't happen until 2050 (based on China's own calculations). Even if that is achieved, then why would there be a need for preemptive strike?!
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