Mask off moment.
Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
- Thread starter sndef888
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Mask off moment.
Any first strike in China US fight is going to be an all out alpha strike, The US is not going to start the whole thing with a few cruise missiles just like China won't. Can China tank such a strike? Is moral justification worth extreme high military price?
I don't have answer, just laying out the calculus here
In b4 they blame it on Alibaba acquired parts.
supercat
Major
I agree with this argument. China should not preemptively attack anyone except Taiwan itself. Unless of course, if others attack China first or attempt to land troops or supplies on Taiwan.
Today's incursion of the median line:
Regard to that ’retarded’ CSIS war game, that’s US and Japan combined forces despite losing 2 carriers and 900+ planes, barely beat China, but still lost southern Taiwan to PLA. But, here comes the ’but’, the PLA forces in that ’war game’ is only consists of Eastern command, not the entire PLA. Now, tell me someone isn’t on some kind of drugs when this so called ‘wargame’ is being played out.
That's simply untrue. China's nuclear arsenal at present is insufficient to achieve that level of destruction. It needs a zero put on the end of it to be that destructive.
How can you know that when China keeps its nuclear arsenal more or less secret? Even back in 80s the arsenal was large enough to deter the USSR.
To destroy the world you don't need to carpet bomb every continent with nukes. Just wiping out US mainland alone will fuck up global food supply chains. Especially when US nuclear attacks destroys China's above ground areas which has the largest food production in the world.
Both parties wouldn't let 3rd party nations survive either. US will launch at Russia, Russia and China will launch at EU. China will launch at India unless India launches on NATO. South America and Africa would likely be sporadically nuked on major population centers by both US and China to ensure MAD.
Whoever survives would face famine and whatever ecological consequences a war like that would bring.
Secret doesn't mean nothing is known about it. There's no reason other than wishful thinking to believe China has a massive secret arsenal stashed away. If you have evidence to the contrary, present it.
These are probabilities and likelihoods of varying degrees. Maybe if China nukes the agricultural production centers in America (which would be a waste of a limited arsenal) and maybe if Russia joins in and maybe if x and maybe if y. I don't count on probabilities and chains of conditionals, I count on certainties. The only way to be certain China can inflict that level of destruction is to build an arsenal capable of doing so.
What is known about it: at least hundreds of MIRV ICBM able to reach all US mainland.
Again, China had a large arsenal by the standards of the 80s and has never since then reported on it.
If you hit every population center, ex. towns above 50 000 in population in USA you'll destroy all their agricultural capability along with everything else. This is a certainty.
Whether China has enough nukes to wipe out civilizations other than the West is maybe a conditional, but as I've written above, it doesn't matter because everyone else will launch as well and make up for it.
No the stimulation concluded that PLA must deploy all of its troops. If it only deploys the Eastern Theater Command, it will be defeated in the first round.
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