There was a time when the balance of power favors the U.S. where war gaming was useful in providing true information about the relative capability of China versus U.S. Recently, the war games, at least the ones that are published, have become nothing more than propaganda. For example, if in a war game, the U.S. loss over 900 aircrafts to the Chinese, you have ask how many sorties are being flown in the simulation? Even if every sortie resulted in the loss of the plane, you are still talking about over 900 sorties. Wouldn't the Chinese side disable the few limited airports that are useful in launching these planes? Once the surface fleet of the U.S. is repelled from the first island chain, and many of these islands have their forces destroyed, wouldn't it make sense for the Chinese to occupy these islands? After all, they are closer to Chinese coast than they are to the main islands of Japan.
The Chinese do not want to invade Taiwan for the following reasons,
1. Taiwan, being in the camp of the U.S., provides China with access to Western tech and market that it otherwise would not be able to provide.
2. Their main goal is the rise of China. Taking Taiwan prematurely interfere with this goal due to sanctions and other consequences.
3. Taiwan, going forward is as much an instrument for the Chinese to constrain the U.S. as it is for the U.S. to constrain China. As time goes on, the leverage for the Chinese grows and the leverage for the U.S. shrinks. Why would the Chinese lose this leverage early?
4. Without some degree of constrain on the U.S., if the invasion happens, I can see the U.S. bombing TSMC using our subs to destroy a big part of the value for the Chinese. The Chinese need to consider if there is a way for them to defend against this type of attack. A deal with the U.S. to take Taiwan might work out better. As the U.S. teeters on so many issues of our own making, there might be an opportunity to do such a deal.
Unable to take the island militarily, even against the U.S. is not part of the equation.
