Absolutely correct-A most sober minded,calculating strategically sound,tactically proficient AR for TW is needed.Absolutely NO preemptive attack on any US military facilities are to be considered as a very quick utterly proficient blitzkrieg takeover of TW WILL show USA and any would-be-adversary that China is a military master .No long dragging on war of attrition and waste-like Ukraine will end it with minimal political/economic repercussions for China-USA will NOT attack a near/ peer power that is in its power category as TW reunification is a victorious end to 100 years of Chinese civil war NOT a start to global armageddon.Be strong but be smart.
Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
- Thread starter sndef888
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Thats another escalation beyond what we have now (physical contact between forces, as opposed to just crossing imaginary lines) and for, honestly, not a lot of gain. What we have now is the normalization of Chinese forces crossing the what used to be "red lines" so they can have the best possible locations for launch-off points, all the while Chinese troops get training and familiarization with their jumping-off points.You know what I would do? Just for laughs, they should do this.
Everyone remember that time that China sent a mobile oil rig to an area right beside Vietnam? Then they started playing bumper boats on the high seas. That was hilarious!
Why not do something similar here?
Why not just park about 10 super-container ships around some beaches or port around Taiwan? They won't do anything anyways. China is sailing and doing stuff around that area, uncontested.
If the status quo has changed ...
The Vietnamese came to contest and prevent that oil rig from drilling, but they did not have enough force, far from it. Taiwan contests nothing at this stage of the game. Not sure why that is the case.
If they contest nothing, just park those container ships a kilometer off the coast. Why not. They can even turn it into a tourist attraction!
Maybe they can plant that same oil rig there too?!
And it genuinely appears China got this for literally nothing. Like, sure, the western media +Taiwanese media are making a huge deal about various trade delegations made from lower-ranking politicians from the west heading to Taiwan... but literally that was happening for decades. The trade-off for China to be able to position her troops in the best possible locations for a reunification event and let her troops train literally on the waters and in the air they would be contesting in the event of a reunification event is... the west doing exactly what they've been doing for decades, only a little louder.
Thats a win no matter how you slice it. And you don't need to put any more "value-added" stuff on it. Especially when you don't actually get much out of something that is far more blatantly provocative.
As for the other thing about China pre-emptively attacking US bases.
I don't think that should be done. The escalation ladder exists for a reason, and you don't do yourself favors if you try and skip rungs on it.
Furthermore, if China can only win a fight against the US by a surprise attack on US bases, that isn't a win. The US isn't going to sit back and go "well, you destroyed our (expendable) troops, I guess we're done."
Even if we go to the extreme and say we kill every single deployed US soldier in a surprise attack, what happens in a year when the US force the next generation of high school students into the military? Year after that? Year after that? The military is expendable. Soldiers are expendable. Production (whether human or machine) isn't.
In the case of a China vs US war, you have to go through the military and hit the production. The squishy industry. But a full-on invasion of the US isn't what China is aiming for or prepared for, nor does China need it. And yet that is the conclusion of a war between the US and China.
Should a reunification event happen, I believe the US will try to provide E3, satellite, radar jamming and EW services to Taiwan but that's it. China will try and shoot down those planes + satellites, and the US will accept an air war against China, (and China will accept an air war against the US) where ships and planes are legitimate targets but bases are off limits.
Because the time when the US and the west could threaten and/or completely destroy China is over. After a Taiwan reunification both China and the US and the rest of the world still have to live with each other. So they will accept limits to their own fight.
That's not to say China doesn't need nuclear missiles or anti-shipping missiles or ballistic missiles. On the contrary, it is precisely those weapons, demonstrating that China now can match the US on the higher rungs of the escalation ladder, that force the US to keep things low on the escalation ladder.
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Source? Can you link to these so-called "China's own calculations"?
Do you know which air defense unit that is? One of the outlying islands or Taiwan proper?
Is this that new EMP weapon that Major General Yu has been talking about?
No idea other than that it is good enough to show off in a livestream segment.
These are the flares to be used against drones remember?
Pack of 10 x 10% = 100% success
Air war with USA ?I respectfully disagree-tacit sat and intelligence ew support to TW?yes but I believe NO US troops of any kind in harm's way(Like USS Ronald Reagan heading away from TW to Yokosuka rather then risk accidental damage from PLA's exercises) as that will not force America's hand if any US service members are killed.However a long war of attrition/failure to achieve total takeover objectives will degrade PLA strength and military credibilty and embolden USA/Japan even India in fighting China-Swift,sure and total Reunification operation is an absolute must-do it right or don't do it at all-everything is at stake.
I agree that it must be swift. Everything that comes after depends on that.
I'm not sure the US would just pull back like that. It feels like for the amount of preparation they're ready for a kinetic fight. Certainly they may try to keep their troops out of harms way, like what they're doing in Ukraine with the AWACs and JSTARs being far away and well behind friendly lines, and also being protected by the American attitude of "our troops can do this, but you can't touch us because if you do we'll go full-hog on you" but China will not respect such red lines. AWACs will not be able to fly unmolested if they're supporting Taiwanese troops, which means a shooting war between China and the USA. Unless the US doesn't use AWACs, and just uses satellites and drones which the Chinese will shoot down en-mass anyways. But given the sort of troops the US is stationing in their colonies, (F-35's, drones, stand-off anti-ship missiles, long-range anti-air missiles) I think they will count on contesting China's reunification with manned platforms.
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