After Pelosi’s Visit, Most of the Indo-Pacific Sides With Beijing
Almost the entire region backs China—but the regime’s behavior has also crystallized support for Taiwan.
By , a senior defense analyst at the Rand Corp. August 22, 2022, 12:34 PM
U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan this month prompted China to conduct unprecedented military drills that included surrounding the island on all sides, firing missiles over it, and taking other highly aggressive steps. Heightened tensions in the Taiwan Strait also elicited responses from other nations in the Indo-Pacific that predictably and overwhelmingly upheld Beijing’s “One China” principle—that Taiwan is part of mainland China. Pelosi’s trip made it equally clear, however, that key U.S. allies strongly support Taiwan’s cause as well, particularly in the face of a potential war over the island, suggesting that Beijing’s assertive behavior is steadily alienating nations that otherwise may have minded their own business.
At the very forefront of support for Taiwan are Japan and Australia. Along with the United States, they a joint statement on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, expressing their “concern about [China’s] recent actions that gravely affect international peace and stability” and urging Beijing “to immediately cease the military exercises.” Their statement also noted “there is no change in the respective [O]ne China policies” of Australia, Japan, and the United States, though this was clearly not the focus.
Another important U.S. ally, South Korea, played its cards very differently. Pelosi’s next stop after Taipei was to Seoul, where South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol claimed to be on a staycation and opted for a phone call with her instead—which some . There was no official South Korean statement on Taiwan. When asked to comment, a South Korean official from the president’s office urged “ with relevant parties” without mentioning China or Taiwan—essentially a non-statement that favors Beijing because it refrains from supporting Taipei.
Likewise, South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin stuck to , noting that “intensifying geopolitical conflict in the Taiwan Strait could hamper political and economic stability in the region” and have “negative ripple effect on the Korean Peninsula.” The week after Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan and South Korea, Park China for the first time, suggesting that Seoul did not want to rock the boat with Beijing just before this crucial engagement.
Although most of the Indo-Pacific supports China’s cause, there are several countries that have become increasingly concerned over Beijing’s behavior and are directly or indirectly backing Taiwan.
Because the Pelosi visit to Taiwan occurred during the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Cambodia, the group was able to quickly release a to “reiterate ASEAN Member States’ support for their respective One-China Policy.” Taiwan went entirely unmentioned.
Many ASEAN members also released individual statements, none of which supported Taiwan’s plight. For example, called on all parties “to refrain from provocative actions,” adding that it continued to “respect the One China policy.” hoped “the U.S. and China can work out a modus vivendi, exercise self-restraint and refrain from actions that will further escalate tensions.” , a fast-emerging key regional partner of the United States, hewed closely to its past statements, noting, “Vietnam persists in implementing the ‘One China’ principle and hopes relevant parties exercise restraint, refrain from escalating the situation in the Taiwan Strait, and actively contribute to the maintenance of peace and stability.” and made similar statements that refrained from supporting Taiwan.
One clear exception to Southeast Asian hedging was the response of the Philippines, a U.S. treaty ally in open conflict with China over the latter’s maritime claims. When U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Manila in early August following the ASEAN meeting, he met with the new president, , who remarked that the Taiwan crisis “just points to the fact of the importance of the relationship between the United States and the Philippines. I hope that we will continue to evolve that relationship in the face of all the changes we have been seeing.”
India, meanwhile, has proven to be a very intriguing case. Indian External Affairs Minister said New Delhi will “assess and monitor” the situation for potential impacts on India. But New Delhi has refused to utter the phrase “One China” and instead only that “India’s relevant policies are well known and consistent. They do not require reiteration.” New Delhi’s verbal dodginess is probably because India has its own beef with China along their disputed land border—known as the Line of Actual Control—which in May 2020 saw some of the deadliest clashes in decades.
Moreover, in recent years, India’s with Taiwan has grown, particularly on the economic front, suggesting that New Delhi is seeking to play hardball with Beijing. However, and significantly, India also chose not to sign the Australia-Japan-U.S. trilateral statement, even though the four nations are joined in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, whose unofficial aim is to counter China. It would appear New Delhi still wants to preserve some goodwill with Beijing.
Across the rest of South Asia, there was no sign of support for Taiwan, only China. Beijing’s “iron brother” Pakistan, for example, spouted Chinese on the importance of “non-interference in internal affairs” of sovereign nations—well-worn code for letting China decide on its plans for Taiwan. , , , and similarly upheld Beijing’s rights in the crisis.
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