Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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Strangelove

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After Pelosi’s Visit, Most of the Indo-Pacific Sides With Beijing​


Almost the entire region backs China—but the regime’s behavior has also crystallized support for Taiwan.​


By
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, a senior defense analyst at the Rand Corp. August 22, 2022, 12:34 PM


U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan this month prompted China to conduct unprecedented military drills that included surrounding the island on all sides, firing missiles over it, and taking other highly aggressive steps. Heightened tensions in the Taiwan Strait also elicited responses from other nations in the Indo-Pacific that predictably and overwhelmingly upheld Beijing’s “One China” principle—that Taiwan is part of mainland China. Pelosi’s trip made it equally clear, however, that key U.S. allies strongly support Taiwan’s cause as well, particularly in the face of a potential war over the island, suggesting that Beijing’s assertive behavior is steadily alienating nations that otherwise may have minded their own business.

At the very forefront of support for Taiwan are Japan and Australia. Along with the United States, they
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a joint statement on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, expressing their “concern about [China’s] recent actions that gravely affect international peace and stability” and urging Beijing “to immediately cease the military exercises.” Their statement also noted “there is no change in the respective [O]ne China policies” of Australia, Japan, and the United States, though this was clearly not the focus.

Another important U.S. ally, South Korea, played its cards very differently. Pelosi’s next stop after Taipei was to Seoul, where South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol claimed to be on a staycation and opted for a phone call with her instead—which some
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. There was no official South Korean statement on Taiwan. When asked to comment, a South Korean official from the president’s office urged “
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with relevant parties” without mentioning China or Taiwan—essentially a non-statement that favors Beijing because it refrains from supporting Taipei.

Likewise, South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin stuck to
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, noting that “intensifying geopolitical conflict in the Taiwan Strait could hamper political and economic stability in the region” and have “negative ripple effect on the Korean Peninsula.” The week after Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan and South Korea, Park
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China for the first time, suggesting that Seoul did not want to rock the boat with Beijing just before this crucial engagement.

Although most of the Indo-Pacific supports China’s cause, there are several countries that have become increasingly concerned over Beijing’s behavior and are directly or indirectly backing Taiwan.

Because the Pelosi visit to Taiwan occurred during the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Cambodia, the group was able to quickly release a
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to “reiterate ASEAN Member States’ support for their respective One-China Policy.” Taiwan went entirely unmentioned.

Many ASEAN members also released individual statements, none of which supported Taiwan’s plight. For example,
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called on all parties “to refrain from provocative actions,” adding that it continued to “respect the One China policy.”
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hoped “the U.S. and China can work out a modus vivendi, exercise self-restraint and refrain from actions that will further escalate tensions.”
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, a fast-emerging key regional partner of the United States, hewed closely to its past statements, noting, “Vietnam persists in implementing the ‘One China’ principle and hopes relevant parties exercise restraint, refrain from escalating the situation in the Taiwan Strait, and actively contribute to the maintenance of peace and stability.”
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and
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made similar statements that refrained from supporting Taiwan.

One clear exception to Southeast Asian hedging was the response of the Philippines, a U.S. treaty ally in open conflict with China over the latter’s maritime claims. When U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Manila in early August following the ASEAN meeting, he met with the new president,
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, who remarked that the Taiwan crisis “just points to the fact of the importance of the relationship between the United States and the Philippines. I hope that we will continue to evolve that relationship in the face of all the changes we have been seeing.”

India, meanwhile, has proven to be a very intriguing case. Indian External Affairs Minister
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said New Delhi will “assess and monitor” the situation for potential impacts on India. But New Delhi has refused to utter the phrase “One China” and instead only
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that “India’s relevant policies are well known and consistent. They do not require reiteration.” New Delhi’s verbal dodginess is probably because India has its own beef with China along their disputed land border—known as the Line of Actual Control—which in May 2020 saw some of the deadliest clashes in decades.

Moreover, in recent years, India’s
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with Taiwan has grown, particularly on the economic front, suggesting that New Delhi is seeking to play hardball with Beijing. However, and significantly, India also chose not to sign the Australia-Japan-U.S. trilateral statement, even though the four nations are joined in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, whose unofficial aim is to counter China. It would appear New Delhi still wants to preserve some goodwill with Beijing.

Across the rest of South Asia, there was no sign of support for Taiwan, only China. Beijing’s “iron brother” Pakistan, for example, spouted Chinese
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on the importance of “non-interference in internal affairs” of sovereign nations—well-worn code for letting China decide on its plans for Taiwan.
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,
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,
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, and
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similarly upheld Beijing’s rights in the crisis.

See link for rest of the article.
 

siegecrossbow

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ROCMOD is adjusting the requirement for draft. One interesting thing is they are now loosening the BMI requirement. Previously you will be crafted if your BMI is between 16.5 to 31.5, in the future the range will be 15 to 35. If we translate that to 172cm tall man current standard for draft is between 48.6kg to 93.4kg, the new standard for draft will be 44.2kg to 103.6kg.

Basically if you try to dodge draft by putting on weight you will soon have to be morbidly obese before they let you off the hook.
 

lych470

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TOKYO, Aug 18 (Reuters) - Japan's national security adviser Takeo Akiba held talks with China's top diplomat Yang Jiechi on Wednesday, news agency Jiji reported on Thursday.

The two agreed to continue talks towards creating a constructive and stable relationship, the report said, citing the Japanese government.
Akiba also reiterated Japan's position regarding Taiwan, saying that peace and stability in the Taiwan strait is essential, according to Jiji.

This might be veering slightly off topic, but machinations are surely afoot between all players. Akiba visited Tianjin and talked for 7 hours with Yang.

Direct CHN-JPN dialogue without US meddling is surely a good thing. If only we could be a fly on the wall.
 

Temstar

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Bigger photo:
2a2a7741cf0078bb5414237eebfc38e5.jpg
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People asked ROCMND about it and this is what they have to say:

陸軍司令部上午證實照片為真,但表示這架無人機當日是在高空以長距變焦鏡頭拍攝金門大膽防區,經我示警驅離後飛離
ROCA high command confirmed the photo was authentic in the morning, but said this UAV was filming Kinmen from high altitude using telephoto lens. After warning from troops it then left.

I just have a question about this: let's say it's true, in that case when ROCA chip their soldier's eyes what's the maximum magnification they install in those cyborg eyeballs?

This quickly went viral in Chinese social media and before the day was out you got more people flying their own DJI over to toy with them:

I'm guessing Major General Yu's EMP signal gun was unavailable so their troops had to resort to their cybernetic arms to throw rocks to high altitude to hit those UAVs? In which case you need to throw 3 for that 210% hit rate!
 
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Laviduce

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It really seems that US neocon/neolib think tanks are really expecting a conflict between the US and China:

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I see a lot of projection coming from the US neocon/neolib regime talking heads, although there are some serious issues that China has or could potentially have to deal with. IMHO, the neocon/neolib US is getting increasingly desperate in its attempts to preserve its global dictatorship/hegemony. Russia, China and a couple of other sovereign nations will not fold to US diktats anymore. If deterrence fails, China will react.
 

Nobo

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It really seems that US neocon/neolib think tanks are really expecting a conflict between the US and China:
I have to disagree. Neocon or Oldcon, no cons will want to fight a war aginst an adversary like China , Russia or even Iran which can present substantial threat to their last resort of saving their lifestyle. They are desperate to save their hegemony, but they are too coward to fight for it,specially the ones on battle field. Being a dead hegemon is no good. Remember, they went to Syria based on "Humanatarian ground". So china & russia will have to worry about proxy war mostly & prepare accordingly. These people are never going to fight front war. So it's going to be proxy, economic war coupled with frequent twitter,you tube think talk word burst like this one.
 
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