Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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Temstar

Temstar

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delta115 said:
US Fleet station in Taiwan is basically declaration of war. Beside, if they actually did that, they are doing China a favor. Now PLARF don't even need to find where those CSG are hiding.
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I know, I deliberately gave an extreme example. Anyone with eyes can see they didn't give Taiwan anything and yet are trying to take TSMC for themselves.

Suppose they successfully setup their own fab, what do you suppose will happen next to Samsung's fabs? South Koreans can see it coming a mile away that's why they're acting in such split personality ways lately.
 
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badoc

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obj 705A said:
Malaysia has no intention to annex Singapore, Malaysia was the one that disposed of Singapore.
Singapore is 100% led by puppets of the west. Malaysia is far more friendly to China than Singapore.
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Sigh, what happened to all the other Singaporeans on this forum to let this blatant post to stand unchallenged.

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Ex-PM Mahathir says Malaysia should claim Singapore and Riau Islands
June 19, 2022
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Malaysia DID NOT "disposed" of Singapore.
Singapore was forced to separate from Malaysia and economically starved, fully expecting us to go crawling back to rejoin Malaysia on their racially, politically and economically unequal terms.

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Singapore could have become 'one country, two systems' within Malaysia, not sovereign country

Singapore saw no economic advantage in merger - the reason why we joined Malaysia in the first place, believing a small island state could not survive without a hinterland.
For example, the Economic Development Board had to seek permission from Kuala Lumpur to award pioneer certificates to prospective investors here, entitling them to tax-free status for five to 10 years. In the two years we were in Malaysia, only two out of 69 such applications were approved, and one came with so many restrictions it amounted to a rejection.
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XiDada

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Until the geopolitical winds have shifted so strongly and obviously in favor of China, there's no way that other Asian countries will outright stop their delicate balancing act between the US and China.

The same thing happened for a number of European and African states during the Cold War. Countries look out for themselves first and foremost, and going all-in on China at this point still does not outweigh the benefit of catering to both sides.
 
ChongqingHotPot92

ChongqingHotPot92

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FairAndUnbiased said:
If this were true then why does her flight path look like this?

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d1282807d50df03c9c7bf32285cccada


Luzon, the top island, is 220 km across. it looks like Pelosi was traveling right outside the EEZ at another 200 km.

How many 055s were on a Filipino beach?

How many J-16Ds were flying over the Philippines?

Not Filipino EEZ or ADIZ but like, Manila airport?
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J-16s from taking off from Huizhou and Shantou could theoretically patrol slightly east of Bashi Strait to intercept her aircraft after aerial refueling by Y-20U. As with 055s, there two of them to the east of Taiwan throughout the entirety of the exercise. This is where my suspicion comes from.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

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ChongqingHotPot92 said:
J-16s from taking off from Huizhou and Shantou could theoretically patrol slightly east of Bashi Strait to intercept her aircraft after aerial refueling by Y-20U. As with 055s, there two of them to the east of Taiwan throughout the entirety of the exercise. This is where my suspicion comes from.
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Were there any J-16 confirmed on patrol? The only confirmed plane launches before Pelosi arrived were Su-30 and Su-35.

Also, Reagan was Southeast of Luzon at the time, and US RC-135 was northeast of Taiwan closer to Japan, so by what mechanism could they jam PLA fighters, if they were there, 500+ km away?

You'd have to prove 1. PLA fighters were present 2. They attempted an intercept 3. They were stopped from interception by the US. That's 3 assumptions.
 
supercat

supercat

Major
Today's daily incursion of the median line:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1560582979382312962

Good argument why the Taiwan Strait is not high seas or "international waters" (a term that does not exist in the UNCLOS and was invented by the U.S.). Make sure you read the whole thread:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1560648693501808640

A Chinese commentator's criticism of the recent CSIS war games, which were not conducted by the U.S. military officially and thus not classified:

China’s drills to change US military assumptions​

China will send small units to infiltrate Taiwan and use its naval and air superiority to block the US military
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Basically, the most problematic assumption of the CSIS war games is that China will attempt large scale amphibious assault without adequate preparation with missile and air strikes because they worry about giving the U.S. any chance to intervene. In reality, China will attack Taiwan with their rocket and air forces for weeks before any kind of landings, because with their current firepower, China is no longer worried about the U.S. intervention if they delay amphibious assault - if the U.S. really wants to intervene, they have to land its troops on Taiwan with a support fleet, which is subject to China's missile and air strikes and will be severely damaged, if not completely destroyed.
 
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vincent

vincent

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supercat said:
Basically, the most problematic assumption of the CSIS war games is that China will attempt large scale amphibious assault without adequate preparation with missile and air strikes because they worry about giving the U.S. any chance to intervene. In reality, China will attack Taiwan with their rocket and air forces for weeks before any kind of landings, because with their current firepower, China is no longer worried about the U.S. intervention if they delay amphibious assault - if the U.S. really want to intervene, they have to land its troops on Taiwan with a support fleet, which is subject China's missile and air strikes.
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PLA doing amphibious assault without defeating the Hegemon and its vassals’ forces is not a good idea
As I wrote in CDF, when the US and its vassals do intervene (not if), PLAAF and PLAN have to fight the intervention forces and supply the troops on the island and support the troops on the island and protect the logistic train. PLA should focus all resources at fighting the American and its vassals forces instead.
 
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taxiya

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ChongqingHotPot92 said:
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How Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan set off a new wave of US-China electronic warfare​

  • PLA eyes in the sky and at sea sought to track the aircraft carrying the US House speaker
  • US reconnaissance aircraft detected over waters near Taiwan during PLA war games after trip, Beijing think tank says

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FOLLOWING
Published: 6:03am, 14 Aug, 2022

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As much as we don't really trust articles written by Minnie Chen, I still have a few questions about this article.

1. Who is this "Hu Yuan Ming" dude saying that 055's radar ranges are far shorter than 500km? Any credible journals or essay (ideally peer-reviewed) written by him that you guys came across?

2. On the night when Pelosi's aircraft circled around the South China Sea and approached Taiwan from the Philippine Sea, did the 055 (Yan'an 106, I think) cross the Bashi Strait and already positioned itself East of Taitung (or in position to track Pelosi's plane)?

3. "A source" to Minnie Chan saying that the electronics on J-16Ds and 055s were jammed by the US Navy. I remember reading Minnie's previous articles citing unnamed sources from the MOD. Wonder what her background is (her last name sounds like a typical HKer as opposed to well-connected folks from Mainland, but I could be wrong).

4. This is not the first RFI Chinese language version reported on undisclosed crises. Back in 2021, it was RFI that reported Beijing threatening to fly fighter planes into Taiwan's airspace should Kelly Craft land in Taiwan during the last days of the Trump Administration. But this article claimed to cite Apple Daily. Now RFI cites Minnie's article. So...hmmm...

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I am not surprised if RFI or Apple Daily posts article deliberately aiming to downplay PLA's capabilities in instill lack of confidence in China. However, SCMP is generally neutral and less politically charged. Again, we should be skeptical of Minnie's "sources" from the PRC MOD. Yet, if we do not see major production of the J-16Ds (or start seeing major renovations/reconstructions of the 346 radars on 055s and 052Ds), then the issues described in this article could be true. And that would be concerning as it could embolden Washington to permanently keep Taiwan separate (as analysts in Pentagon would perceive PLA's electronic warfare as rudimentary).
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It is a huge mistake to even try to make some serious sense out of article by Minnie Chan.

BTW,
  1. SCMP isn't neutral at all, it tries to dress up being neutral by using seemingly neutral tone and even pretending to be pro-China.
  2. Minnie Chan has zero connection to insider infor. She is saying as always "trust me" when nothing she said can be varified.
 
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