Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

efficient_kiwi said:

Thank you for this comment, and please know that I will be completely sincere in this response. Perhaps there was a bit of sarcasm in other ones, lol, but I am going to be completely sincere in this one.

I totally agree with you re: a counterproductive dynamic. I just think we’re operating from very different pretexts, since you seem to think peaceful unification is possible (which is not the case for me, for reasons below). I actually think I understand why the Chinese think Taiwan should be part of China. Historically(well, up until 1895 happened) and culturally(well, up until we were cut off for 4 decades or so), it makes far more sense for Taiwan to be part of China than independent. I think the closest analogy would be Hokkaido and Japan: fairly recently colonized (by the Japanese from Honshu, in this case, about two centuries after Koxinga removed the Dutch), some geographical barriers (though of course, the Tsugaru Strait is far narrower than the Taiwan Strait), a fairly significant indigenous population that was brutally dispersed, etc. The difference however, is that the 清 dynasty was incompetent, arrogant, debaucherous, and senile, and couldn’t even hold on to one of their most lucrative and quickly-modernizing provinces, unlike the Japanese who reformed and beat the Russians decisively. As the Athenians once said, “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.” C’est la vie.

Ok, that was a pretty significant detour and this isn’t supposed to be a history lesson. The issue, I think, that is causing all the moral theater is that most Taiwanese no longer think it possible to convince the Chinese of Taiwan’s independence. Peaceful independence has always been a pipe dream, and other options such as 一國兩制 are no longer acceptable after seeing what happened to Hong Kong. I recall 真普選, 雨傘革, and 反送中 very vividly. I’m going to be frank with you: I no longer think peaceful unification is possible. The recent comments from your ambassador to France, Lu Shaye, has only solidified this view. I’m sure you’ve heard, but he insisted that the Taiwanese will be subjected to “re-education” after unification. Your government is going to subject us to the same treatment as Uyghurs, who were bombing train stations and randomly stabbing people in the streets, while I am pretty sure that there have been nada Taiwanese terrorism attacks. 是可忍，孰不可忍？

Considering that we are currently outnumbered, outspent, out-teched by the Chinese, plus engaging in dialogue appears to be futile (considering the gulf between our two peoples, not to mention governments), what else is there to do but condescend and engage in vague moral concepts such as democracy and human rights? It’s one of the final joys left to a people who is likely to suffer great pain and suffering sometime in the decades to come. I care about moral theater not because I don’t care about practical outcomes, but because I cannot see any practical outcome that is acceptable to me. Why should we unify if we are fine on our own? If we unify, is there a future where we choose our own leadership through free and fair elections, where we can assemble in the streets and protest the government, and where we can post funny pictures of Xi Jinping as Winnie? (Actually, I think you can do the latter now if I’m correct, but that initial censoring was so bizarre.) Would such an 一國兩制 be even remotely acceptable to the CCP? I think not, though I'm open to arguments to the contrary.

I just don’t think there is such a future short of some miracle where a) the Chinese people are collectively brainwashed into thinking Taiwan is independent, b) Taiwan breaks a blockade, throws the PLA back across the Taiwan Strait, and avoids starving to death, or c) the Chinese economy inexplicably collapses. Short of these, it’s likely that I would die in the war or be re-educated sometime in my late-twenties to early-thirties, and that is just f-ing unfortunate. So, so, so f-ing unfortunate.

So to all the Chinese people reading this, forgive the 灣灣’s condescension and snobbishness. It is about the only thing left to these Taiwanese who see clearly that we are the Melians to the Chinese’s Athenians, and yet will not, cannot, stomach the thought of simply laying down without a fight. Many of us are, I believe, stuck between a rock and a hard place. So we try to 富國強兵 as best as we can, and we laugh at the Chinese on the internet whenever we get the chance, while we try to not think too hard about the 東風 and 鷹擊 ready to blow us to bits. At the same time, I’m sorry about the mockery and condescension, but some of you must realize how ridiculous figures like 華春瑩 are, right? Recent tweet of “palates don’t cheat” being exhibit A. (I can lay out why I think it was absolutely hilarious if any of y'all are interested. )

I apologize for any emotional discourse. In the meantime, in the interest of convincing at least some Chinese that Taiwan is indeed currently de facto independent, I will take any questions you may have on this matter. I’m not sure how many of you don’t think Taiwan is de facto independent, but regardless, I’m open to questions. And I will try to avoid any condescension or moral theater whatsoever. Whether Taiwan should be independent is another matter entirely. I personally think it should be subjected to a referendum like the Quebec or Scottish ones, with the terms of a referendum laid out in an act (something like the Clarity Act in Canada) passed by the Legislative Yuan to legitimize the secession of a region from the ROC. The reality of the situation, however, is that the PRC will do what they please ‘cuz they got the big guns. There is no “justice” to be discussed ‘til we also get some big guns.

TL;DR: practical outcomes outside of war hopeless, chances of persuading Chinese people of Taiwanese independence nil, open to discourse but to me it is probably useless anyhow, still, open to questions.

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Sheleah said:

Taiwan begins artillery exercises with live ammunition from its shores

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azn_cyniq said:

I'm Taiwanese and I find your stance highly disagreeable. I find it odd that you refer to the Chinese as a separate people. Like it or not, we are Chinese. I have aboriginal ancestors and I consider myself Chinese. We speak Chinese (Mandarin and Hokkien), use Chinese characters, celebrate Chinese holidays, and practice Chinese customs. The founder of the greatest Taiwanese company by far, TSMC, is Chinese (he was born in Zhejiang). Many of the most recognizable dishes in Taiwanese cuisine, such as 爌肉飯, originated in China (so did the vast majority of us). Din Tai Fung's beloved xiaolongbao is from Jiangsu. Hundreds of thousands of Taiwanese people work and study in China. In recent years, I've witnessed many of our brightest engineers, scientists, and entertainers migrate to China, where they thrive.

I struggle to find aspects of "Taiwanese" culture that are not Chinese in origin. I can't listen to Taiwanese songs or watch Taiwanese movies without hearing Mandarin or Hokkien. There is not a single place in Taiwan I can go to without seeing or hearing Mandarin or Hokkien. I have yet to meet a Taiwanese person without a Chinese name.

I have so much more to say about this topic but unfortunately, being a student at an Ivy League university means that I don't have much time on my plate. By the way, all of my Taiwanese-American friends here get along with their Chinese friends. I have spoken at length with many of my Taiwanese friends about the rise of China and most of us are inspired by China's rise. For the first time in centuries, Chinese people are a leading force in science and technology. A few of my Taiwanese friends at other top universities travel to China regularly for work. The only Taiwanese-American person I know who's openly anti-Chinese is currently in jail.

Frankly, my love for my fellow Chinese people is far stronger than words uttered by a Chinese ambassador or the Chinese government's response to the destruction of Hong Kong at the hands of rioters.

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tphuang said:

There is one thing I really don't like that China did here. They overplayed this "shooting down Pelosi" nonsense and made it sound like they are going into a war. All that did was set unrealistic expectations for some people.

Btw, there were people that said they are going to never visit this forum again if China let Pelosi land. Why are they still here?

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Sheleah said:

Taiwan begins artillery exercises with live ammunition from its shores

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horse said:

Seems to me, everything was a test on some level.

Including ramping up public opinion to intercept that broomstick, when they never had any intention to do so.

It was like they were just gathering data on what the public reaction and international reaction would be like.

We were played like fiddle!

WWF style.

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tphuang said:

Please do not compare Bremmer to Chang. Chang is a loser who still somehow gets airtime for his repeated bad takes that China will collapse.

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azn_cyniq said:

I'm Taiwanese and I find your stance highly disagreeable. I find it odd that you refer to the Chinese as a separate people. Like it or not, we are Chinese. I have aboriginal ancestors and I consider myself Chinese. We speak Chinese (Mandarin and Hokkien), use Chinese characters, celebrate Chinese holidays, and practice Chinese customs. The founder of the greatest Taiwanese company by far, TSMC, is Chinese (he was born in Zhejiang). Many of the most recognizable dishes in Taiwanese cuisine, such as 爌肉飯, originated in China (so did the vast majority of us). Din Tai Fung's beloved xiaolongbao is from Jiangsu. Hundreds of thousands of Taiwanese people work and study in China. In recent years, I've witnessed many of our brightest engineers, scientists, and entertainers migrate to China, where they thrive.

I struggle to find aspects of "Taiwanese" culture that are not Chinese in origin. I can't listen to Taiwanese songs or watch Taiwanese movies without hearing Mandarin or Hokkien. There is not a single place in Taiwan I can go to without seeing or hearing Mandarin or Hokkien. I have yet to meet a Taiwanese person without a Chinese name.

I have so much more to say about this topic but unfortunately, being a student at an Ivy League university means that I don't have much time on my plate. By the way, all of my Taiwanese-American friends here get along with their Chinese friends. I have spoken at length with many of my Taiwanese friends about the rise of China and most of us are inspired by China's rise. For the first time in centuries, Chinese people are a leading force in science and technology. A few of my Taiwanese friends at other top universities travel to China regularly for work. The only Taiwanese-American person I know who's openly anti-Chinese is currently in jail.

Frankly, my love for my fellow Chinese people is far stronger than words uttered by a Chinese ambassador or the Chinese government's response to the destruction of Hong Kong at the hands of rioters.

Click to expand...