Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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horse

Colonel
Registered Member
Definitely real AGM-84 missiles and definitely not photoshopped.

View attachment 95161

Is that really PS'ed? Cannot really tell. I am going quasi-blind.

If it is, then this photo should be nominated to the Internet Copium Awards.

It should win some sort of consolidation prize.

Since this is copium we are talking about, no real prizes, just consolidation prizes.

Some free ointment for the butt too.

:oops:
 

9dashline

Captain
Registered Member
Is that really PS'ed? Cannot really tell. I am going quasi-blind.

If it is, then this photo should be nominated to the Internet Copium Awards.

It should win some sort of consolidation prize.

Since this is copium we are talking about, no real prizes, just consolidation prizes.

Some free ointment for the butt too.

:oops:
Wanwanese could have at least hired a Jia Hind on the Jewish platform Fiverr for like $5 USD to create some assets in blender or 3ds max and then render it in vray or Unreal Engine 5 to make it look somewhat passable for the real thing....

 

56860

Senior Member
Registered Member
Thank you for this comment, and please know that I will be completely sincere in this response. Perhaps there was a bit of sarcasm in other ones, lol, but I am going to be completely sincere in this one.

I totally agree with you re: a counterproductive dynamic. I just think we’re operating from very different pretexts, since you seem to think peaceful unification is possible (which is not the case for me, for reasons below). I actually think I understand why the Chinese think Taiwan should be part of China. Historically(well, up until 1895 happened) and culturally(well, up until we were cut off for 4 decades or so), it makes far more sense for Taiwan to be part of China than independent. I think the closest analogy would be Hokkaido and Japan: fairly recently colonized (by the Japanese from Honshu, in this case, about two centuries after Koxinga removed the Dutch), some geographical barriers (though of course, the Tsugaru Strait is far narrower than the Taiwan Strait), a fairly significant indigenous population that was brutally dispersed, etc. The difference however, is that the 清 dynasty was incompetent, arrogant, debaucherous, and senile, and couldn’t even hold on to one of their most lucrative and quickly-modernizing provinces, unlike the Japanese who reformed and beat the Russians decisively. As the Athenians once said, “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.” C’est la vie.

Ok, that was a pretty significant detour and this isn’t supposed to be a history lesson. The issue, I think, that is causing all the moral theater is that most Taiwanese no longer think it possible to convince the Chinese of Taiwan’s independence. Peaceful independence has always been a pipe dream, and other options such as 一國兩制 are no longer acceptable after seeing what happened to Hong Kong. I recall 真普選, 雨傘革, and 反送中 very vividly. I’m going to be frank with you: I no longer think peaceful unification is possible. The recent comments from your ambassador to France, Lu Shaye, has only solidified this view. I’m sure you’ve heard, but he insisted that the Taiwanese will be subjected to “re-education” after unification. Your government is going to subject us to the same treatment as Uyghurs, who were bombing train stations and randomly stabbing people in the streets, while I am pretty sure that there have been nada Taiwanese terrorism attacks. 是可忍,孰不可忍?

Considering that we are currently outnumbered, outspent, out-teched by the Chinese, plus engaging in dialogue appears to be futile (considering the gulf between our two peoples, not to mention governments), what else is there to do but condescend and engage in vague moral concepts such as democracy and human rights? It’s one of the final joys left to a people who is likely to suffer great pain and suffering sometime in the decades to come. I care about moral theater not because I don’t care about practical outcomes, but because I cannot see any practical outcome that is acceptable to me. Why should we unify if we are fine on our own? If we unify, is there a future where we choose our own leadership through free and fair elections, where we can assemble in the streets and protest the government, and where we can post funny pictures of Xi Jinping as Winnie? (Actually, I think you can do the latter now if I’m correct, but that initial censoring was so bizarre.) Would such an 一國兩制 be even remotely acceptable to the CCP? I think not, though I'm open to arguments to the contrary.

I just don’t think there is such a future short of some miracle where a) the Chinese people are collectively brainwashed into thinking Taiwan is independent, b) Taiwan breaks a blockade, throws the PLA back across the Taiwan Strait, and avoids starving to death, or c) the Chinese economy inexplicably collapses. Short of these, it’s likely that I would die in the war or be re-educated sometime in my late-twenties to early-thirties, and that is just f-ing unfortunate. So, so, so f-ing unfortunate.

So to all the Chinese people reading this, forgive the 灣灣’s condescension and snobbishness. It is about the only thing left to these Taiwanese who see clearly that we are the Melians to the Chinese’s Athenians, and yet will not, cannot, stomach the thought of simply laying down without a fight. Many of us are, I believe, stuck between a rock and a hard place. So we try to 富國強兵 as best as we can, and we laugh at the Chinese on the internet whenever we get the chance, while we try to not think too hard about the 東風 and 鷹擊 ready to blow us to bits. At the same time, I’m sorry about the mockery and condescension, but some of you must realize how ridiculous figures like 華春瑩 are, right? Recent tweet of “palates don’t cheat” being exhibit A. (I can lay out why I think it was absolutely hilarious if any of y'all are interested. )

I apologize for any emotional discourse. In the meantime, in the interest of convincing at least some Chinese that Taiwan is indeed currently de facto independent, I will take any questions you may have on this matter. I’m not sure how many of you don’t think Taiwan is de facto independent, but regardless, I’m open to questions. And I will try to avoid any condescension or moral theater whatsoever. Whether Taiwan should be independent is another matter entirely. I personally think it should be subjected to a referendum like the Quebec or Scottish ones, with the terms of a referendum laid out in an act (something like the Clarity Act in Canada) passed by the Legislative Yuan to legitimize the secession of a region from the ROC. The reality of the situation, however, is that the PRC will do what they please ‘cuz they got the big guns. There is no “justice” to be discussed ‘til we also get some big guns.

TL;DR: practical outcomes outside of war hopeless, chances of persuading Chinese people of Taiwanese independence nil, open to discourse but to me it is probably useless anyhow, still, open to questions.
The thoughts and delusions of 20 million brainwashed wanwans on the wrong side of history are completely irrelevant. This is not a referendum where you get to debate the merits of accession and submit your vote by fucking ballot. This is war. A war which your side, the ROC, lost over 70 years ago. Your leaders are illegal occupiers of PRC territory, which is the sole and rightful inheritor of the ancient and indivisible nation state of 'China'. Your opinion means jack sh*t. You. Do. Not. Get. To. Decide. Kindly drill that into your head please.
 

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
Peaceful reunification is impossible.

Can anyone name a single historical example where an unresolved civil war is concluded via peaceful voluntary annexation of one side? Some say German model, but that wasn't even a civil war, it was defeated, occupied, and involuntarily divided. There is no civil war has ever ended in peaceful voluntary annexation.
I can think of one: 蜀汉/Shu Han from the Three Kingdoms period. Oh sure Shu and Wei waged unending war on each other for decades (with some wars with Wu thrown in for good measure), but in the final stages Shu did not go down fighting to the last man and woman and child against Wei even though its population was fanatical in defense of their homeland. If Liu Shan wanted to his subjects were totally prepared to fight to the last.

But Liu Shan didn't make that decision. Instead he surrendered and what's left if Shu was peacefully integrated into Wei and eventually into the final victor the Jin dynasty forming once again an unified China. For this decision to this day Liu Shan gets shit on by people where he's derisively called by his infant name "Adou" and has a well known idiom "乐不思蜀" dedicated to his supposed incompetence. Yet few people consider the possibility that he may have done what he did to end the pointless bloodshed and spare the lives of his people, even if it meant he's the butt of jokes almost 2000 years on.

We will never known what Liu Shan was really thinking when he made that call as he took his thoughts with him to the grave, potentially hiding behind a mask of incompetence. I personally think there's a not insignificant chance that he was a great leader who gave up on his own ambitions to save untold lives and allowed smoother reemergence of Unified China 3.0.
 
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Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
The eu could add their sanctions
When you're freezing but also want to starve at the same time.

A loss of 10-20% gdp is completely acceptable if the West loses the same or even more.

If US tries and then fails at invading Taiwan, that will be the end of the dollar as a reserve currency right then and there. Their credibility in a China led Eurasia and west Pacific will be zero. And these regions make up the majority of world resources and wealth.

America could give up their claims on Taiwan and still be some level of world power, but if they commit to conflict and Chinese defenses stonewall them, it'll end up with them being downgraded to a regional power at best, a larger Mexico at worst.
 

5unrise

Junior Member
Registered Member
The topic of China is a very divisive one among the Taiwanese public. There is no national consensus. There are indeed strong supporters, but, to identify them, you usually need to be more alert to subtle signals to be aware of their pro-China stance. This is because the recent rise in cross-strait tension had made openly pro-mainland political views shunned upon in the mainstream media. The ex mayor of Kaohsiung, (my birthplace) Han Kuo Yu, had his political career basically destroyed by the DPP-leaning media that larped onto his pro-mainland stance, plus some other tactical mistakes on his part.
Pro-China figures would usually couch their views in quite disguised ways. For example, they would usually say something like 'I oppose the CCP, but I am proud of China as a Hua Ren (ethnic, not political, Chinese)' or something like that. In other parts of the world, that may very well be interpreted as anti-China. But in Taiwan, make no mistake, that is a standard signal of one's pan-blue orientation when speaking to someone you don't know that well.
The strongly independence-oriented folks, however, are far more outspoken and feel more leeway to be confrontational, because the mainstream media is supportive of that. They won't feel vulnerable for expressing these views, unless they have business ties to the mainland, of course.
What I am saying is that the anti-China crowd in Taiwan has a tendency to be more outspoken, because they feel emboldened. The more pro-China side tends to be more reserved and less willing to show it. In short, there is a discrepancy between what you see online and the reality. So, try not to be riled up too easily by the DPP-aligned commenters.
 

W20

Junior Member
Registered Member
Well, I'm beginning to see a little light in this mess.

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The "Taiwanese Gambit" means sacrificing a pawn, Taiwan, to damage China, watch from a distance as the Chinese kill each other, and further consolidate the club of European vassals.

But I think the devilish Gambit has a solution: Blockade Taiwan.

Washington wants to see the Chinese kill each other. The solution is to invite the Americans to the party and let them kick off the party if they want to.

What do you think ?
 
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