Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

Biscuits said:

It is The Sun, man, one of the most retarded British medias, I'm not even sure it can be considered one of the British government's mouthpieces because it is legitimately so retarded that I don't think the UK govt is directly involved in it because they would be above such a thing. Unless they have sources outside The Sun for that particular article, I'd consider the Onion to be a more reliable news source.

The article seems to just talk about the war games US made and how they turned out, which we've known since a long time almost never turn out well for US. But hardcore US nationalists in the leadership represented by those who sent Pelosi already demonstrated they don't give a fuck about what the military thinks is achievable or if their odds are good or not.

Its a hail mary because they've failed domestically and when the dollar is removed as a reserve currency, their economy and life quality will likely plunge to the levels of Brazil and India. That is, unless they can fix the rot of corruption at home. However, without regime change, this is as far as I can see, impossible.

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a0011 said:

@azn_cyniq
The most "Chinese" thing you can do for "China" is not take up arms when PLA/PAP patrol your neighborhood. I don't say this to troll but it's the only realistic outcome in next 1month -10 years. The longer CPC wait the harder and less "Chinese" the locals will feel. If we Don't want to see a repeat of Xinjiang, best do it sooner than later.

PS. Bragging about your college is definitely extremely chinese. By far we are the worse offenders

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a0011 said:

China has already gain much prominence and how exactly has the Taiwanese embraced it?

Taiwanese nationalism (if I can call it that) will never accept a mainland chinese identity. Forgive this comparison but Russian has 2.5x GDP per capita as Ukraine and how many ukrainan are ready to join the fold?

The longer CPC wait the deeper their nationalism planted by its education system spreads. It not gonna be easy or cheap to "pacify" a people that sees you as a foreign invader. Don't be under any illusion that anyone will be welcoming this reunification no matter how prominent China gets... In 5 day or 5 years.

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tphuang said:

I can totally understand why Taiwanese people don't want unification. I don't want in a crushed 1 country 2 system system like in HK and then be directly ruled by an authoritarian government.

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efficient_kiwi said:

I am not terribly familiar with how much the Chinese are willing to risk economically in terms of a Taiwan contingency. 25% to 35% of GDP is a steep, steep number.

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Nutrient said:

"Mainland China risks losing 25% to 35% of GDP" is a typical exaggeration of Taiwanese propaganda. Even if true, that is now. In ten years or twenty years, the GDP at risk will be a far lower percentage of the mainland's economy at that time.

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Nutrient said:

I forgot to say the following...

If the armed reunification lasts a week or two -- quite possible -- the mainland's economy won't even wobble. And that is true now; in ten or twenty years, it will be even more true.

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Published: 2:05pm, 9 Aug, 2022

Updated: 2:14pm, 9 Aug, 2022

Beijing’s military announced on Tuesday its navy and air force would continue joint drills in the waters and airspace around Taiwan, following four days of unprecedented live-fire exercises.

Without specifying an end date, the People’s Liberation Army Eastern Theatre Command said the upcoming drills were to prepare for operations of “joint defence” and “joint encirclement” of the self-ruled island.

The announcement came just hours after United States President Joe Biden said he was “not worried” about the PLA increasing pressure.

“I’m concerned that they’re moving as much as they are,” Biden said. “But I don’t think they’re going to do anything more.”
Joe Biden ‘concerned’ over PLA drills around Taiwan but doesn’t think Beijing will escalate

Former editor-in-chief of the nationalist tabloid Global Times Hu Xijin said military drills had become a “new reality” in the Taiwan Strait.

“Truthfully, the military drills are more like the beginning of the PLA’s normalisation of new elements in their actions in the Taiwan Strait,” Hu wrote on Weibo, China’s Twitter-like platform. “Sealing off the island has become a reality that can be staged at any time, and the lifeblood of Taiwan is clearly in the hands of mainland China.”

According to Hu, the drills rejected the concept of Taiwanese waters and airspace, as well as the median line in the Taiwan Strait, a de facto boundary between the island and mainland China which Beijing has not officially recognised but both sides have largely abided by over the decades.
Chinese war games expected to harden Taiwanese hostility to Beijing

Analysts have echoed the view that the aim is for the drills to become regular exercises.

“Beijing can turn such military exercises into real action any time it deems necessary … or just maintain its current military pressure on Taiwan,” said Koh King Kee, president of the Centre for New Inclusive Asia, a think tank in Malaysia.

“Pelosi’s reckless visit to Taiwan has inadvertently accelerated Beijing’s cross-strait reunification process and provided a strategic opportunity to test-run reunifying Taiwan through forceful means,” Koh said.

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Export to USA is only 3% of China GDP.

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