Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Looks like the Taiwanese are feeling the pain and some pro-China mouth piece was talking about the median line that it is simply a joke. If the line is to keep PLA to the west and ROCA to the east, do ROCA's airplanes cross the line and fly to Kinmen? If the strait is considered as international water, there is naturally no median line.
The Taiwan Strait is not international water
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
It is definitely international water. Even from china's point of view, most of Taiwan strait are not within 12 nm territorial water.
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The second type are straits not completely overlapped by territorial seas, with a route through the high seas or an EEZ suitable for international navigation, and which are subject to high seas freedom of navigation and overflight. The Taiwan Strait and Miyako Strait are two examples.

Still, UNCLOS stipulates that the exercise of such freedom and rights is subject to obligations, including under the applicable laws and regulations of the coastal states. Take the Taiwan Strait, for example. There is an EEZ corridor through it, and the waters are divided into several zones including internal waters, territorial sea and contiguous zones.

The principle of innocent passage applies to the designated territorial sea in the Taiwan Strait, while the high seas freedoms, of navigation and overflight, apply to the EEZ. That is why Wang said that, “China has sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction over the Taiwan Strait.”
 

tphuang

Lieutenant General
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The second type are straits not completely overlapped by territorial seas, with a route through the high seas or an EEZ suitable for international navigation, and which are subject to high seas freedom of navigation and overflight. The Taiwan Strait and Miyako Strait are two examples.

Still, UNCLOS stipulates that the exercise of such freedom and rights is subject to obligations, including under the applicable laws and regulations of the coastal states. Take the Taiwan Strait, for example. There is an EEZ corridor through it, and the waters are divided into several zones including internal waters, territorial sea and contiguous zones.

The principle of innocent passage applies to the designated territorial sea in the Taiwan Strait, while the high seas freedoms, of navigation and overflight, apply to the EEZ. That is why Wang said that, “China has sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction over the Taiwan Strait.”
Go listen to Shilao's podcast on this part. China regards Taiwan Straits as special since it views it controls both sides of the straits. However, it is pretty wide and much of it is not covered by the 12nm sea water. As such, China is saying this straits is special but is intentionally vague about what it will actually do about foreign naval ships going by. But realistically, nothing has really changed.
 

SteelBird

Colonel
It is definitely international water. Even from china's point of view, most of Taiwan strait are not within 12 nm territorial water.
I feel funny. If it is international water, back to a few years ago there were rumor China plan to build a tunnel across the strait. Is it legal to build something across international water?
 

jwnz

Junior Member
Registered Member
Thank you for this comment, and please know that I will be completely sincere in this response. Perhaps there was a bit of sarcasm in other ones, lol, but I am going to be completely sincere in this one.

I totally agree with you re: a counterproductive dynamic. I just think we’re operating from very different pretexts, since you seem to think peaceful unification is possible (which is not the case for me, for reasons below). I actually think I understand why the Chinese think Taiwan should be part of China. Historically(well, up until 1895 happened) and culturally(well, up until we were cut off for 4 decades or so), it makes far more sense for Taiwan to be part of China than independent. I think the closest analogy would be Hokkaido and Japan: fairly recently colonized (by the Japanese from Honshu, in this case, about two centuries after Koxinga removed the Dutch), some geographical barriers (though of course, the Tsugaru Strait is far narrower than the Taiwan Strait), a fairly significant indigenous population that was brutally dispersed, etc. The difference however, is that the 清 dynasty was incompetent, arrogant, debaucherous, and senile, and couldn’t even hold on to one of their most lucrative and quickly-modernizing provinces, unlike the Japanese who reformed and beat the Russians decisively. As the Athenians once said, “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.” C’est la vie.

Ok, that was a pretty significant detour and this isn’t supposed to be a history lesson. The issue, I think, that is causing all the moral theater is that most Taiwanese no longer think it possible to convince the Chinese of Taiwan’s independence. Peaceful independence has always been a pipe dream, and other options such as 一國兩制 are no longer acceptable after seeing what happened to Hong Kong. I recall 真普選, 雨傘革, and 反送中 very vividly. I’m going to be frank with you: I no longer think peaceful unification is possible. The recent comments from your ambassador to France, Lu Shaye, has only solidified this view. I’m sure you’ve heard, but he insisted that the Taiwanese will be subjected to “re-education” after unification. Your government is going to subject us to the same treatment as Uyghurs, who were bombing train stations and randomly stabbing people in the streets, while I am pretty sure that there have been nada Taiwanese terrorism attacks. 是可忍,孰不可忍?

Considering that we are currently outnumbered, outspent, out-teched by the Chinese, plus engaging in dialogue appears to be futile (considering the gulf between our two peoples, not to mention governments), what else is there to do but condescend and engage in vague moral concepts such as democracy and human rights? It’s one of the final joys left to a people who is likely to suffer great pain and suffering sometime in the decades to come. I care about moral theater not because I don’t care about practical outcomes, but because I cannot see any practical outcome that is acceptable to me. Why should we unify if we are fine on our own? If we unify, is there a future where we choose our own leadership through free and fair elections, where we can assemble in the streets and protest the government, and where we can post funny pictures of Xi Jinping as Winnie? (Actually, I think you can do the latter now if I’m correct, but that initial censoring was so bizarre.) Would such an 一國兩制 be even remotely acceptable to the CCP? I think not, though I'm open to arguments to the contrary.

I just don’t think there is such a future short of some miracle where a) the Chinese people are collectively brainwashed into thinking Taiwan is independent, b) Taiwan breaks a blockade, throws the PLA back across the Taiwan Strait, and avoids starving to death, or c) the Chinese economy inexplicably collapses. Short of these, it’s likely that I would die in the war or be re-educated sometime in my late-twenties to early-thirties, and that is just f-ing unfortunate. So, so, so f-ing unfortunate.

So to all the Chinese people reading this, forgive the 灣灣’s condescension and snobbishness. It is about the only thing left to these Taiwanese who see clearly that we are the Melians to the Chinese’s Athenians, and yet will not, cannot, stomach the thought of simply laying down without a fight. Many of us are, I believe, stuck between a rock and a hard place. So we try to 富國強兵 as best as we can, and we laugh at the Chinese on the internet whenever we get the chance, while we try to not think too hard about the 東風 and 鷹擊 ready to blow us to bits. At the same time, I’m sorry about the mockery and condescension, but some of you must realize how ridiculous figures like 華春瑩 are, right? Recent tweet of “palates don’t cheat” being exhibit A. (I can lay out why I think it was absolutely hilarious if any of y'all are interested. )

I apologize for any emotional discourse. In the meantime, in the interest of convincing at least some Chinese that Taiwan is indeed currently de facto independent, I will take any questions you may have on this matter. I’m not sure how many of you don’t think Taiwan is de facto independent, but regardless, I’m open to questions. And I will try to avoid any condescension or moral theater whatsoever. Whether Taiwan should be independent is another matter entirely. I personally think it should be subjected to a referendum like the Quebec or Scottish ones, with the terms of a referendum laid out in an act (something like the Clarity Act in Canada) passed by the Legislative Yuan to legitimize the secession of a region from the ROC. The reality of the situation, however, is that the PRC will do what they please ‘cuz they got the big guns. There is no “justice” to be discussed ‘til we also get some big guns.

TL;DR: practical outcomes outside of war hopeless, chances of persuading Chinese people of Taiwanese independence nil, open to discourse but to me it is probably useless anyhow, still, open to questions.
I understand your sentiment... but as someone has said it very succinctly...

"Taiwan can be an autonomous province of China or a US military base that US will use to attack China. For Taiwan, there is no such thing as independence."
 

reservior dogs

Junior Member
Registered Member
here is one thing I really don't like that China did here. They overplayed this "shooting down Pelosi" nonsense and made it sound like they are going into a war. All that did was set unrealistic expectations for some people.
Agreed. However, governments are not perfect. Consider they are relatively new at this, they will learn in due course of time.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
American politicians and deep state are too dumb and arrogant for that. @Patchwork_Chimera can confirm this part. They are too dumb to realize that PLA was perfectly situated to launch a continuous air drill to show its power whereas US military was too overstretched and overburdened to do the same. They wouldn't even listen to the military's caution on this. This makes US military look weak. Pelosi had to fly around Philippines to get to Taiwan, because SCS is too hard to penetrate. If it takes several weeks for 1 CSG to come by to Taiwan, how long would it take several CSGs to be made war ready in a real conflict?
@tphuang Well Sir I can't understand why they listen and employ such shady characters like Bremmer, Chang and other snake oil salesman, They don't have the criteria , the experience and expertise to advise people in power to make policy, did the standard been lowered or maybe the American Oligarch establishment pick and choose stupid people under their payroll, they don't want intelligent peasant that will make them look bad.
 
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