Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

Keep these things in mind. China's response here after Pelosi's visit were about shifting Overton window on what's normal/acceptable level of activity around Taiwan. America looks incredibly weak and helpless here, because it just has the 3 ships stationed outside of Taiwan and some spy planes. Everyone knows that type of force cannot possibly deter China. More importantly, it's quite apparent that America does not have the ability at the moment to just bring 2 CSGs over to Taiwan to show its power. On the opposite end, China managed to coordinate a huge exercise on a moment's notice. That kind of stuff is not lost on nations around Asia. Even if you did not believe in the rise of China and the over stretched naval power before, you have to be aware of it now. America has always been able to show hard power rather than just whine and complain with its Western allies.

WSJ here. They got one thing correct, which is China's ability to just operate at a level that anyone outside of US military is unable to do. The much greater air and naval coordination is all for everyone to see. I'm a little confused about why they think China would want to cut food supply from Taiwan when they are not at war. If they Taiwan's navy, they can just have cutters harass traffic going back and forth through and around Taiwan Straits. China has incredible leverage over the Japanese and SK. If I was with PLA, I'd start low level conversation with them about preparing for a time where US no longer dominates East Asia.

The other part is about continued exercise. They really don't need to. They made their point. They will have frequent exercise around Taiwan now and that will extend closer and closer to Ryuku Islands. They will normalize PLA activity around Taiwan. Why wait until US navy get there? What purpose does that serve? Isn't it a better look that America can't get there until 1 month after the exercises are over? They can always have frequent and smaller exercises around there going forward.

tphuang said:

Keep these things in mind. China's response here after Pelosi's visit were about shifting Overton window on what's normal/acceptable level of activity around Taiwan. America looks incredibly weak and helpless here, because it just has the 3 ships stationed outside of Taiwan and some spy planes. Everyone knows that type of force cannot possibly deter China. More importantly, it's quite apparent that America does not have the ability at the moment to just bring 2 CSGs over to Taiwan to show its power. On the opposite end, China managed to coordinate a huge exercise on a moment's notice. That kind of stuff is not lost on nations around Asia. Even if you did not believe in the rise of China and the over stretched naval power before, you have to be aware of it now. America has always been able to show hard power rather than just whine and complain with its Western allies.

WSJ here. They got one thing correct, which is China's ability to just operate at a level that anyone outside of US military is unable to do. The much greater air and naval coordination is all for everyone to see. I'm a little confused about why they think China would want to cut food supply from Taiwan when they are not at war. If they Taiwan's navy, they can just have cutters harass traffic going back and forth through and around Taiwan Straits. China has incredible leverage over the Japanese and SK. If I was with PLA, I'd start low level conversation with them about preparing for a time where US no longer dominates East Asia.

The other part is about continued exercise. They really don't need to. They made their point. They will have frequent exercise around Taiwan now and that will extend closer and closer to Ryuku Islands. They will normalize PLA activity around Taiwan. Why wait until US navy get there? What purpose does that serve? Isn't it a better look that America can't get there until 1 month after the exercises are over? They can always have frequent and smaller exercises around there going forward.

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Bro, point taken. What's wrong by postioning PLAN around TW, and have fighters jets flying across TW part of China's territory?

tphuang said:

Keep these things in mind. China's response here after Pelosi's visit were about shifting Overton window on what's normal/acceptable level of activity around Taiwan. America looks incredibly weak and helpless here, because it just has the 3 ships stationed outside of Taiwan and some spy planes. Everyone knows that type of force cannot possibly deter China. More importantly, it's quite apparent that America does not have the ability at the moment to just bring 2 CSGs over to Taiwan to show its power. On the opposite end, China managed to coordinate a huge exercise on a moment's notice. That kind of stuff is not lost on nations around Asia. Even if you did not believe in the rise of China and the over stretched naval power before, you have to be aware of it now. America has always been able to show hard power rather than just whine and complain with its Western allies.

WSJ here. They got one thing correct, which is China's ability to just operate at a level that anyone outside of US military is unable to do. The much greater air and naval coordination is all for everyone to see. I'm a little confused about why they think China would want to cut food supply from Taiwan when they are not at war. If they Taiwan's navy, they can just have cutters harass traffic going back and forth through and around Taiwan Straits. China has incredible leverage over the Japanese and SK. If I was with PLA, I'd start low level conversation with them about preparing for a time where US no longer dominates East Asia.

The other part is about continued exercise. They really don't need to. They made their point. They will have frequent exercise around Taiwan now and that will extend closer and closer to Ryuku Islands. They will normalize PLA activity around Taiwan. Why wait until US navy get there? What purpose does that serve? Isn't it a better look that America can't get there until 1 month after the exercises are over? They can always have frequent and smaller exercises around there going forward.

Click to expand...

What if instead of bringing 2 CSG US just fly their F-35 from the bases nearby to not lose any face?

tphuang said:

Keep these things in mind. China's response here after Pelosi's visit were about shifting Overton window on what's normal/acceptable level of activity around Taiwan. America looks incredibly weak and helpless here, because it just has the 3 ships stationed outside of Taiwan and some spy planes. Everyone knows that type of force cannot possibly deter China. More importantly, it's quite apparent that America does not have the ability at the moment to just bring 2 CSGs over to Taiwan to show its power. On the opposite end, China managed to coordinate a huge exercise on a moment's notice. That kind of stuff is not lost on nations around Asia. Even if you did not believe in the rise of China and the over stretched naval power before, you have to be aware of it now. America has always been able to show hard power rather than just whine and complain with its Western allies.

WSJ here. They got one thing correct, which is China's ability to just operate at a level that anyone outside of US military is unable to do. The much greater air and naval coordination is all for everyone to see. I'm a little confused about why they think China would want to cut food supply from Taiwan when they are not at war. If they Taiwan's navy, they can just have cutters harass traffic going back and forth through and around Taiwan Straits. China has incredible leverage over the Japanese and SK. If I was with PLA, I'd start low level conversation with them about preparing for a time where US no longer dominates East Asia.

The other part is about continued exercise. They really don't need to. They made their point. They will have frequent exercise around Taiwan now and that will extend closer and closer to Ryuku Islands. They will normalize PLA activity around Taiwan. Why wait until US navy get there? What purpose does that serve? Isn't it a better look that America can't get there until 1 month after the exercises are over? They can always have frequent and smaller exercises around there going forward.

Click to expand...

@tphuang Sir simple answer China had Escalatory Dominance in SCS and Taiwan proper, beyond that in the Second Island chain its 60-40 in favor of the US. And here my calculus is that the US wish to de escalate cause IF Taiwan falls then US holdings in the Asia Pacific is untenable.

And another thing Ian Bremmer is so full of himself, most of his opinion are crap and embarrassing at most! who ever employ him is being fleece of his money, @SampanViking is a better geopolitical expert than him and he should join this forum to be educated. Well I can teach him a thing or two with my rank of Brigadier as proof of my expertise...lol

tphuang said:

Keep these things in mind. China's response here after Pelosi's visit were about shifting Overton window on what's normal/acceptable level of activity around Taiwan. America looks incredibly weak and helpless here, because it just has the 3 ships stationed outside of Taiwan and some spy planes. Everyone knows that type of force cannot possibly deter China. More importantly, it's quite apparent that America does not have the ability at the moment to just bring 2 CSGs over to Taiwan to show its power. On the opposite end, China managed to coordinate a huge exercise on a moment's notice. That kind of stuff is not lost on nations around Asia. Even if you did not believe in the rise of China and the over stretched naval power before, you have to be aware of it now. America has always been able to show hard power rather than just whine and complain with its Western allies.

WSJ here. They got one thing correct, which is China's ability to just operate at a level that anyone outside of US military is unable to do. The much greater air and naval coordination is all for everyone to see. I'm a little confused about why they think China would want to cut food supply from Taiwan when they are not at war. If they Taiwan's navy, they can just have cutters harass traffic going back and forth through and around Taiwan Straits. China has incredible leverage over the Japanese and SK. If I was with PLA, I'd start low level conversation with them about preparing for a time where US no longer dominates East Asia.

The other part is about continued exercise. They really don't need to. They made their point. They will have frequent exercise around Taiwan now and that will extend closer and closer to Ryuku Islands. They will normalize PLA activity around Taiwan. Why wait until US navy get there? What purpose does that serve? Isn't it a better look that America can't get there until 1 month after the exercises are over? They can always have frequent and smaller exercises around there going forward.

Click to expand...

Yes, I think if you remove the spectators and look at the reactions from leadership amongst nation states, China won and won big this time. Even going by how the Biden administration is reacting to this, you get a sense that behind the scenes, no one is given anybody high fives. It speaks volumes about the huge advantage in the structure of the government for the Chinese compared to the U.S. We are just bumbling along each doing his/her own thing. When you look at the comparative power calculus, this should be a big factor to consider.

Jat said:

Everyone relax - no one is going to die - there is not going to be a shooting war, both sides will back down a bit; with China backing down 2X.

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Just going through some older posts... some sure age well.

Looking forward to the next round, where the next US government representative lands in a brand spanking new Tejas supa fighter that the US air force reportedly has "expressed interest in".

davidau said:

Bro, point taken. What's wrong by postioning PLAN around TW, and have fighters jets flying across TW part of China's territory?

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Absolutely not. That would definitely cross a line. With this level of escalation, China can at least make the argument that it is responding appropriately to an American escalation. Whether you accept that or not depends on your relationship with China. If they actually end up flying into Taiwan air space, that could escalate into a war and then everyone will know it's China's fault. more importantly, China is ready for a war as we discussed.

TK3600 said:

What if instead of bringing 2 CSG US just fly their F-35 from the bases nearby to not lose any face?

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USAF does not have F-35 bases in Pacific theater. Not that I think F-35s will do a darn thing to stop PLA in a shooting war. F-35As have good range, but it's not that great.

ansy1968 said:

@tphuang Sir simple answer China had Escalatory Dominance in SCS and Taiwan proper, beyond that in the Second Island chain its 60-40 in favor of the US. And here my calculus is that the US wish to de escalate cause IF Taiwan falls then US holdings in the Asia Pacific is untenable.

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American politicians and deep state are too dumb and arrogant for that. @Patchwork_Chimera can confirm this part. They are too dumb to realize that PLA was perfectly situated to launch a continuous air drill to show its power whereas US military was too overstretched and overburdened to do the same. They wouldn't even listen to the military's caution on this. This makes US military look weak. Pelosi had to fly around Philippines to get to Taiwan, because SCS is too hard to penetrate. If it takes several weeks for 1 CSG to come by to Taiwan, how long would it take several CSGs to be made war ready in a real conflict?

Unfortunately for US military, China has established a new norm and that it will keep exercising around Taiwan and it will be even harder for US military to distinguish between war preparation vs a large exercise.

reservior dogs said:

Yes, I think if you remove the spectators and look at the reactions from leadership amongst nation states, China won and won big this time. Even going by how the Biden administration is reacting to this, you get a sense that behind the scenes, no one is given anybody high fives. It speaks volumes about the huge advantage in the structure of the government for the Chinese compared to the U.S. We are just bumbling along each doing his/her own thing. When you look at the comparative power calculus, this should be a big factor to consider.

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Yes, this truly speaks volumes about the political dysfunction in DC. Let's say we do have a messy change of government here in America. how is US military going to respond to an external event half way around the world? For all the talks about focus on Asia, what has actually been directed to improve American military presence in Asia? Nobody in China is quaking over the thought of F-15EX replacing F-15Cs.

There is one thing I really don't like that China did here. They overplayed this "shooting down Pelosi" nonsense and made it sound like they are going into a war. All that did was set unrealistic expectations for some people.

Btw, there were people that said they are going to never visit this forum again if China let Pelosi land. Why are they still here?

Looks like the Taiwanese are feeling the pain and some pro-China mouth piece was talking about the median line that it is simply a joke. If the line is to keep PLA to the west and ROCA to the east, do ROCA's airplanes cross the line and fly to Kinmen? If the strait is considered as international water, there is naturally no median line.

tphuang said:

USAF does not have F-35 bases in Pacific theater. Not that I think F-35s will do a darn thing to stop PLA in a shooting war. F-35As have good range, but it's not that great.

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They have one squadron of F-35B at Iwakuni (VMFA-121) but I doubt it will make much difference.

You know China has won this round when even CIA infested places like reddit are no longer celebrating the visit.

Now most of the posts are expressing worry about it turning into a real blockade, calling it a useless visit etc