Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

[Biscuits]

Yes i agree, this is a pre-text - AKA an excuse, not the real reason for the conflict. Multiple people have written here that this would be a war "caused by the US" which is simply not true. Reunification is way more complex than that.



Ok then they have allowed that regime to exist, same thing. My point is that someone visiting this supposedly terrible regime shouldn't be that much worse than the existence of it in the first place.



Whaaaaa? That doesnt even make sense to me. You're telling me the country that supplies Taiwan with defensive armaments and other assistance is secretly planning to invade it? Is this an actual belief/thought within China?

Why does it not make sense to you? It's not as if you've just seen the same play the last few months but from different actors?

The country (Russia) that is supplying (Luhansk Republic) and (Donetsk PR) with defensive armaments and other assistance is also planning on annexing them or at least making them into satellite republics. What is so illogical about that? Sending arms is a move to secure control over the collaboration government and prepare for conflict.

 

[kbecks]

Something is fishy, the flight is not following the commercial flight path, it's heading toward east Indonesia instead...

Correct, it is flying more Easterly which is the way the SPAR20 took from Japan down to Malaysia a few hours ago.

SPAR20 is parked in Japan...

Where is SPAR20?

It is in Kuala Lumpur

Something is very not right here, just havent figured out what it is

Flying East away from SCS and closer to the Roosevelt carrier group for protection most likely.

The country (Russia) that is supplying (Luhansk Republic) and (Donetsk PR) with defensive armaments and other assistance is also planning on annexing them or at least making them into satellite republics

Yea Russia was the aggressor there and is clearly trying to take territory, meanwhile the US is supplying Taiwan with defensive arms and China is clearly the one seeking unification. There is no evidence that the US is trying to "take over" Taiwan, but obviously they are supporting them.

 

[jwnz]

Something is very not right here, just havent figured out what it is

It's avoiding you the Nine Dash Line

 

[OppositeDay]

If you fly directly over Taiwan, someone will get shot down.

I very much doubt. I don't think Taiwan wants to start a war. Beijing and Taipei have back channels. Tsai will be warned in advance that shooting down a PLAAF jet means war.

 

[Biscuits]

Correct, it is flying more Easterly which is the way the SPAR20 took from Japan down to Malaysia a few hours ago.




It is in Kuala Lumpur

Flying East away from SCS and closer to the Roosevelt carrier group for protection most likely.



Yea Russia was the aggressor there and is clearly trying to take territory, meanwhile the US is supplying Taiwan with defensive arms and China is clearly the one seeking unification. There is no evidence that the US is trying to "take over" Taiwan, but obviously they are supporting them.

Ukraine was the one seeking unification as well, in fact they went way further than China because they actually shell the separatists, with tens of thousands casualties caused, many civilian.

Russia was the one trying to stop them and now openly aiding the separatists.

"there is no evidence US is trying to take over Taiwan" is that your personal opinion or what the US government itself believes? Because I don't know why else an outside country would try to station arms inside China's civil conflict otherwise.

 

[escobar]

DF-100?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1554385674706399232

 

[BoraTas]

Taking Kinmen would be beyond stupid. It has no strategic value (for China anyway) and will simply become a place for Taiwanese intelligence to fan civil unrests. Also that's a one-time thing. What happens when the next Western politician come? Take another island?

A PLAAF flyover is better. It asserts Chinese sovereignty and it's infinitely repeatable.

Well, you have to take the islands only once. Armed flyover despite all of its glory doesn't really change anything and is risky. It would likely be resisted by Taiwan. I don't see Taiwan letting 100+ armed PLAAF aircraft go over their cities. For example, what if they suddenly release their munitions? Also, you would present very favorable engagement geometries to ROCAF while flying over Taiwan. So you will have to shoot down a massive chunk of ROCAF and take out their SAM systems before the first flyover anyway. Armed flyovers would be safe after crippling ROCAF with a punitive campaign though.

The next stage would be contextual. If Taiwan starts arming like crazy after this and develops a reactionary nationalism (already happening to an extend) like Ukraine then China shouldn't wait for 8 years to finish the job. If it stays somewhat normal then China may return back to normal relations too. China would love to have Chinese-Taiwanese relations of 2015 but as I said, Taiwan has become an adversary and it is doing a really good job at ruining China's foreign relations.

 

[Abominable]

A flyover just for the sake of it is pointless. Taking a single island is also pointless, and will only lead to a massive increase in Taiwanese military spending and anti-China hostility.

I think at this point if the PLA has fully mobilised and ready to go and the ROC hasn't, I think a full scale invasion is on the cards regardless of what Pelosi does.

Occupy, demilitarise, make a one China two systems type deal and then leave.

That's a bit of a stretch, if you want to say that it's visiting China and violation of their borders then you could claim that China has allowed millions in Taiwan to break the law for decades now and has done nothing - why should this person be any different?

China can be as inconsistent in the policing of its borders as it likes.

 

[Jat]

A flyover just for the sake of it is pointless. Taking a single island is also pointless, and will only lead to a massive increase in Taiwanese military spending and anti-China hostility.

China can be as inconsistent in the policing of its borders as it likes.

Everyone relax - no one is going to die - there is not going to be a shooting war, both sides will back down a bit; with China backing down 2X.

 

[broadsword]

Everyone relax - no one is going to die - there is not going to be a shooting war, both sides will back down a bit; with China backing down 2X.

STFU. Some of us, including me, want war.