Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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OppositeDay

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BoraTas said:
Well, you have to take the islands only once. Armed flyover despite all of its glory doesn't really change anything and is risky. It would likely be resisted by Taiwan. I don't see Taiwan letting 100+ armed PLAAF aircraft go over their cities. For example, what if they suddenly release their munitions? Also, you would present very favorable engagement geometries to ROCAF while flying over Taiwan. So you will have to shoot down a massive chunk of ROCAF and take out their SAM systems before the first flyover anyway. Armed flyovers would be safe after crippling ROCAF with a punitive campaign though.

The next stage would be contextual. If Taiwan starts arming like crazy after this and develops a reactionary nationalism (already happening to an extend) like Ukraine then China shouldn't wait for 8 years to finish the job. If it stays somewhat normal then China may return back to normal relations too. China would love to have Chinese-Taiwanese relations of 2015 but as I said, Taiwan has become an adversary and it is doing a really good job at ruining China's foreign relations.
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China doesn't have to fly 100 jets over Taiwan. 3 or 4 volunteers can fly in. And many more will be flying around Taiwan. China can avoid major population centers if so choose since the point is not to terrorize the citizenry. China will let Tsai know the route and time beforehand, so she can make the choice of war or peace.

I'm not saying this will definitely happen. But far, far more likely than taking Kinmen or any other island.
 
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Jat

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She is on her way - now watch how mature leaders settle it peacefully - but yes China will look a little foolish for hyping it up so much.
 
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