Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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OppositeDay

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kbecks said:
Fair, I meant to Nancy's plane specifically. I also don't think China will use this to rush an invasion of Taiwan, at most perhaps take some of the islands (i.e Kinmen) like we saw with Crimea in 2014.
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Taking Kinmen would be beyond stupid. It has no strategic value (for China anyway) and will simply become a place for Taiwanese intelligence to fan civil unrests. Also that's a one-time thing. What happens when the next Western politician come? Take another island?

A PLAAF flyover is better. It asserts Chinese sovereignty and it's infinitely repeatable.
 
Temstar

Temstar

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Latest Chahuahui from Shilao/Yankee/Ayi. They said at the beginning that they're not going to talk about the big show because the whole Guancha defense news crew will be talking about it separately on tonight's livestream. This podcast will be about PLA after 95 years however at the start they did confirm indeed all the troop movements down south near the coast are real.

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Guancha's livestream, their show will begin 7:30PM Beijing time.
 
BoraTas

BoraTas

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kbecks said:
That's a bit of a stretch, if you want to say that it's visiting China and violation of their borders then you could claim that China has allowed millions in Taiwan to break the law for decades now and has done nothing - why should this person be any different?
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Well, that's the point. One China was a huge compromise. It was extremely hard for China to accept such a compromise as nuclear power and P5 member. Neither Taiwan's nor the US' behavior is compatible with the texts One China comes from. If one side is partially breaching it then China should partially breach it too. I think this is a good opportunity for China to challenge the US commitment to Taiwan, increase military spending, and stash a lot of hardware in Fujian. If China is strong enough it can easily profit from this crisis and it can even redraw the strategic picture in the region. Especially a scenario in which PLAAF trashes the ROCN and ROCAF but the US just watches would be spectacular for China.

Note: I have very good opinions about Xi. But if all of this was just words he is an idiot.
 
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kbecks

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OppositeDay said:
Taking Kinmen would be beyond stupid. It has no strategic value (for China anyway) and will simply become a place for Taiwanese intelligence to fan civil unrests. Also that's a one-time thing. What happens when the next Western politician come? Take another island?

A PLAAF flyover is better. It asserts Chinese sovereignty and it's infinitely repeatable.
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A flyover is not going to get anyone's attention and no one would care, China has been flying into the Taiwanese (rather large) ADIZ for ages now so I don't think that is a strong enough signal. If you fly directly over Taiwan, someone will get shot down.

I don't see how China can't take Kinmen because of unrest from Taiwan, but can somehow take all of Taiwan in the near future? Taking any of the islands is an order of magnitude easier task and we saw Russia do this exact same thing with great success in Ukraine. The US is very unlikely to respond over this sort of aggression, though perhaps provoking them is exactly what is desired here.
 
tygyg1111

tygyg1111

Captain
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kbecks said:
Fair, I meant to Nancy's plane specifically. I also don't think China will use this to rush an invasion of Taiwan, at most perhaps take some of the islands (i.e Kinmen) like we saw with Crimea in 2014.



So it's not even China then? Semantics aside, a visit does not mean war.
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A province can be a part of a country, but is not a country in and of itself

kbecks said:
That's a bit of a stretch, if you want to say that it's visiting China and violation of their borders then you could claim that China has allowed millions in Taiwan to break the law for decades now and has done nothing - why should this person be any different?
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Cmon, quit being facetious, 3rd in line for US presidency =/= some random visa overstayer.
It's like saying, idiots in america have been talking sh*t from the get go, why get your undies in a knot over trump?
 
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