Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

Loved seeing all these people a decade ago (actually saw some of them here a couple of months ago lmao) thinking that China and US would be peaceful and cooperating, talk about being delusional

Military spending should had been hiked a decade ago, but alas, delusions are a better opium than reality. Now, everyone starts talking about war here, war there, war with US, war with Taiwan, war with Japan, war with Australia etc. Its funny how quickly everyone suddenly rediscovered their old love for the criminally underinvested PLA

As I said, delusional as ever. You can wish reality away all you want but Thucydides trap is inevitable. Just take some popcorn and enjoy the show

Petrolicious88 said:

Peaceful reunification through economic enticement has failed despite the overwhelming success of the Chinese economy. Taiwanese enjoy a standard of living that is on par or higher than Chinese citizens from the costal cities.

And the real issue has never been about economy, but rather political. When people talk about their Taiwanese identify, they are in fact talking about their political system/way of life.

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When the people was poor, it was about the standard of living, now that the people are rich it became about freedom. Fundamentally, the identity of Taiwan has drifted quite far away from that of the mainland and that no amount of enticement political or economical will make them accept reunification peacefully, as time goes on that feeling will only grow stronger.

We are now reaching the tail end of the lives of those who fought in the civil war, yet the question remain unresolved.

tphuang said:

In my mind, they are not going to do anything in the near term unless Taiwan or America crosses a red line. They still have to finish their nuke buildup, the 2015 initiated reforms, greater precision strike inventory and make themselves sanction proof. Even after that time, I don't see any reason why China will want to resort to an invasion. That would be terrible for everyone. At some point, it will be obvious to everyone that America cannot keep its hegemonic position in East Asia. That might take another 20 years, but it will most likely happen. The power balance will keep growing in China's favor during that time.

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I agree with the first part of your response but not the second. Yes, China should keep strengthening its position and not launch a war unless absolutely necessary for the foreseeable future, but while that might get it Taiwan it won't break the US's APAC hegemony. Can you point to a single example in history where a hegemony was broken without a war or the hegemonic state imploding due to internal factors? In other words, a hegemony that passed without a war and with the hegemonic state still intact and functional.

tankphobia said:

When the people was poor, it was about the standard of living, now that the people are rich it became about freedom.

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That’s expected. Who’s thinking about freedom, arts, and the abstracts when they are poor.

Taiwanese "identity" is a non factor. Identity is something that changes over time, highly influenced by the government and propaganda. Literally every government in the world seeks to create an identity that benefits themselves the most. Current Taiwanese "identity" is intentionally sculpted by the DPP and its media to make taiwanese as resistant to reunification as possible and to present the DPP as the only viable party.

Still, it doesn't matter whether it was natural or intentional. It is worth absolute jackshit in the face of the real important issue, sovereignty. Once AR is completed, China should implement direct rule and 20 years of re-education and reform to resculpt taiwanese identity. No more dilly-dallying with 1C2S or autonomy.

I see no avenue for peaceful reunification in the next 20 years as the DPP has a stranglehold on taiwanese politics similar to Putin in Russia. IF we survive the next 20 years without AR then PR becomes more possible, as it will become clear the US can no longer defend taiwan/damage China's economy, and taiwan will be forced to yield. But looking at current trends, I think the US will cross China's red line before then.

Biscuits said:

A war act if I've ever seen one. "deterring China" I guess the same way the Japanese deterred the Allies at Marco Polo bridge and Pearl Harbor.

Another bonus from Pelosi's blunder is that China now has arrayed enough forces to defend Taiwan for whenever Biden goes on TV and does the American version of Putin's February 24 speech.

They know they're losing hard economically, so now they'll try fighting a war. It would be more convinient for China to fight US once it has several times more VLO platforms and more ships, but in practice, the defending party has never been able to count on to luxury of finishing all their moves.

Japan struck before America could come close to remotely finish their fleet program and before they had a comparable naval fighter. Germany stuck before USSR could finish its army reforms.

China's remaining next gen developments will probably have to be done midwar, but this will not be a huge setback. You fight with the army you have not the one you wish you had, and I'm pretty sure the government planned extensively for this.

The only hope for peace now lies on the US people, or more accurately, the pro peace faction in the US regime (as the people have clearly lost power) to stop the revanchists from going to war.

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According to the online comments, a lot of Americans don’t know what it would look like. They believe they would easily nuke China to wipe it out from this world. With such a brainwashed population, I don’t expect the whole crisis could be solved peacefully.

Petrolicious88 said:

Peaceful reunification through economic enticement has failed despite the overwhelming success of the Chinese economy. Taiwanese enjoy a standard of living that is on par or higher than Chinese citizens from the costal cities.

And the real issue has never been about economy, but rather political. When people talk about their Taiwanese identify, they are in fact talking about their political system/way of life.

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You're correct, it's more political than economic, particularly considering that Taiwan is a wealthy society to begin with. But the politics or political system/way of life of Taiwan run against a much more fundamental, much raw force from China. It's the identity of being Chinese, Chinese nation, Chinese civilization reinforced by the so-called "hundred year of humiliation" and the way Taiwan was taken from China (Qing) and the way the Taiwan's prolonged separation from China was imposed on China. It tramples Taiwan's "democracy and freedom" any day, even before one considers that is largely a false contradiction to begin with. Taiwan is a living humiliation, because of the role the US has played and continues to play, and a constant reminder of that humiliation. The fact that the US and other western countries including Japan have been playing Taiwan card against China simply reinforce that strong feeling. Without Taiwan returning to the motherland, the claim of China's rejuvenation is hollow and incomplete. Solving the challenge of reunifying Taiwan is a also a yardstick against which the distance that China has traveled in her long journey towards national rejuvenation is measured. At some level, this struggle is actually quite beneficial to the forming of China's new identity and character as it will eventually become a common and civilizational experience. That's why Taiwan is so important to the psyche of modern China and it has been etched into the Chinese consciousness.

Hundreds of millions of mainland Chinese clung to the web/internet/mobile to get minute-by-minute updates on Nancy Pelosi's flight before its landing on Taiwan.

tankphobia said:

When the people was poor, it was about the standard of living, now that the people are rich it became about freedom. Fundamentally, the identity of Taiwan has drifted quite far away from that of the mainland and that no amount of enticement political or economical will make them accept reunification peacefully, as time goes on that feeling will only grow stronger.

We are now reaching the tail end of the lives of those who fought in the civil war, yet the question remain unresolved.

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It's all about who owns the instruments of popular control.

5 years ago when China didn't bother to appeal Xinjiang people and just considered them poor migrant workers, islamist media and fighters flourished in from foreign countries.

But because China, not USA nor it's ally Saudi, owns the means of information manipulation in Xinjiang, all China had to do was to invest in a major PR offensive to the population.

Now, Xinjiang people are sitting on US flags in restaurants as a sign of disrespect and deliberately promoting their products in an act of defiance against foreign sponsored terrorism. Local people turned against terror cells and reported them to the government.

This quick change in just 5 years happened due to China's control over media. Likewise, whoever controls those instruments on Taiwan Island, which is currently the DPP and its foreign collaborators, can define the minds of most Taiwanese public.

Biscuits said:

It's all about who owns the instruments of popular control.

5 years ago when China didn't bother to appeal Xinjiang people and just considered them poor migrant workers, islamist media and fighters flourished in from foreign countries.

But because China, not USA nor it's ally Saudi, owns the means of information manipulation in Xinjiang, all China had to do was to invest in a major PR offensive to the population.

Now, Xinjiang people are sitting on US flags in restaurants as a sign of disrespect and deliberately promoting their products in an act of defiance against foreign sponsored terrorism. Local people turned against terror cells and reported them to the government.

This quick change in just 5 years happened due to China's control over media. Likewise, whoever controls those instruments on Taiwan Island, which is currently the DPP and its foreign collaborators, can define the minds of most Taiwanese publi

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The mass majority of people are sheeps. “The masses are easy to manipulate” - CIA.

Sry for posting this unrelated story here, but I just found it absolutely funny.
So in Africa, you know how the US is trying to compete with Chinese and Russian influence? You would think perhaps with more investments than China? Well no. Their big idea is to promote "democracy", stand up to "authoritarian" leaders (aka regime change) and also by promoting LGBT rights.

White House unveils Africa strategy​

The US says it will “foster openness and open societies” by promoting democracy and anti-corruption initiatives, “deliver democratic and security dividends” by opposing authoritarian leaders and promoting women’s and LGBT rights.