Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

9dashline said:

Nope he has not, he believes China can achieve 4x US GDP lol

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latenlazy said:

What can’t be solved peacefully in one generation might have a chance in future generations (for either outcome). The nihilism is a reflection of impatience, and it comes from a selfish attitude of wanting one’s own terms to the point of preferring violence more than wanting peace. I’ve spent *many* years on this issue in a lot of different dimensions, and I think what I’ve concluded is that so long as each side obsesses over a framing of reunification vs independence rather than peace vs war there will be conflict. Violence imo is always the worst outcome though, and so long as that remains true it never hurts to continue trying for peace.

Tbh I am extremely disturbed by how many in Taiwan would prefer going down a path that actively encourages a violent outcome for themselves so long as they get to paint themselves as the victims and as the morally righteous. Of course the Mainland side is not blameless since it’s the Mainland that maintains a threat of force as an option, but the history of this issue shows that there was a peaceful compromise the Mainland was willing to tolerate that many in Taiwan now want to throw away for little more reason than to collect vanity points and to express their contempts. That’s a kind of sentiment and viewpoint that I find to be childish, and just extremely unnecessary and regrettable.

As one Taiwanese friend of mine pointed out, this current situation basically started with Tsai’s refusal to acknowledge the 92 Consensus and the DPP’s broader attempt to make some pretty disingenuous revisions to history and cultural nomenclature to construct a “Taiwan” identity that is presented as having no association with China, so that they can wield it as a loophole to get out from under the “One China” language. I understand why those in Taiwan might want to be politically independent, but I personally feel these kinds of tactics are proactively destructive to any attempt to construct a peaceful path forward for both China and Taiwan.

To be clear, none of these follow up thoughts are directed at you. Your comments (well received) just invoked a broader expression of my personal views about the state of this issue today.

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efficient_kiwi said:

Thank you for this comment, and please know that I will be completely sincere in this response. Perhaps there was a bit of sarcasm in other ones, lol, but I am going to be completely sincere in this one.

I totally agree with you re: a counterproductive dynamic. I just think we’re operating from very different pretexts, since you seem to think peaceful unification is possible (which is not the case for me, for reasons below). I actually think I understand why the Chinese think Taiwan should be part of China. Historically(well, up until 1895 happened) and culturally(well, up until we were cut off for 4 decades or so), it makes far more sense for Taiwan to be part of China than independent. I think the closest analogy would be Hokkaido and Japan: fairly recently colonized (by the Japanese from Honshu, in this case, about two centuries after Koxinga removed the Dutch), some geographical barriers (though of course, the Tsugaru Strait is far narrower than the Taiwan Strait), a fairly significant indigenous population that was brutally dispersed, etc. The difference however, is that the 清 dynasty was incompetent, arrogant, debaucherous, and senile, and couldn’t even hold on to one of their most lucrative and quickly-modernizing provinces, unlike the Japanese who reformed and beat the Russians decisively. As the Athenians once said, “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.” C’est la vie.

Ok, that was a pretty significant detour and this isn’t supposed to be a history lesson. The issue, I think, that is causing all the moral theater is that most Taiwanese no longer think it possible to convince the Chinese of Taiwan’s independence. Peaceful independence has always been a pipe dream, and other options such as 一國兩制 are no longer acceptable after seeing what happened to Hong Kong. I recall 真普選, 雨傘革, and 反送中 very vividly. I’m going to be frank with you: I no longer think peaceful unification is possible. The recent comments from your ambassador to France, Lu Shaye, has only solidified this view. I’m sure you’ve heard, but he insisted that the Taiwanese will be subjected to “re-education” after unification. Your government is going to subject us to the same treatment as Uyghurs, who were bombing train stations and randomly stabbing people in the streets, while I am pretty sure that there have been nada Taiwanese terrorism attacks. 是可忍，孰不可忍？

Considering that we are currently outnumbered, outspent, out-teched by the Chinese, plus engaging in dialogue appears to be futile (considering the gulf between our two peoples, not to mention governments), what else is there to do but condescend and engage in vague moral concepts such as democracy and human rights? It’s one of the final joys left to a people who is likely to suffer great pain and suffering sometime in the decades to come. I care about moral theater not because I don’t care about practical outcomes, but because I cannot see any practical outcome that is acceptable to me. Why should we unify if we are fine on our own? If we unify, is there a future where we choose our own leadership through free and fair elections, where we can assemble in the streets and protest the government, and where we can post funny pictures of Xi Jinping as Winnie? (Actually, I think you can do the latter now if I’m correct, but that initial censoring was so bizarre.) Would such an 一國兩制 be even remotely acceptable to the CCP? I think not, though I'm open to arguments to the contrary.

I just don’t think there is such a future short of some miracle where a) the Chinese people are collectively brainwashed into thinking Taiwan is independent, b) Taiwan breaks a blockade, throws the PLA back across the Taiwan Strait, and avoids starving to death, or c) the Chinese economy inexplicably collapses. Short of these, it’s likely that I would die in the war or be re-educated sometime in my late-twenties to early-thirties, and that is just f-ing unfortunate. So, so, so f-ing unfortunate.

So to all the Chinese people reading this, forgive the 灣灣’s condescension and snobbishness. It is about the only thing left to these Taiwanese who see clearly that we are the Melians to the Chinese’s Athenians, and yet will not, cannot, stomach the thought of simply laying down without a fight. Many of us are, I believe, stuck between a rock and a hard place. So we try to 富國強兵 as best as we can, and we laugh at the Chinese on the internet whenever we get the chance, while we try to not think too hard about the 東風 and 鷹擊 ready to blow us to bits. At the same time, I’m sorry about the mockery and condescension, but some of you must realize how ridiculous figures like 華春瑩 are, right? Recent tweet of “palates don’t cheat” being exhibit A. (I can lay out why I think it was absolutely hilarious if any of y'all are interested. )

I apologize for any emotional discourse. In the meantime, in the interest of convincing at least some Chinese that Taiwan is indeed currently de facto independent, I will take any questions you may have on this matter. I’m not sure how many of you don’t think Taiwan is de facto independent, but regardless, I’m open to questions. And I will try to avoid any condescension or moral theater whatsoever. Whether Taiwan should be independent is another matter entirely. I personally think it should be subjected to a referendum like the Quebec or Scottish ones, with the terms of a referendum laid out in an act (something like the Clarity Act in Canada) passed by the Legislative Yuan to legitimize the secession of a region from the ROC. The reality of the situation, however, is that the PRC will do what they please ‘cuz they got the big guns. There is no “justice” to be discussed ‘til we also get some big guns.

TL;DR: practical outcomes outside of war hopeless, chances of persuading Chinese people of Taiwanese independence nil, open to discourse but to me it is probably useless anyhow, still, open to questions.

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AndrewS said:

China in 30 years time will be a very different place.

Assuming there isn't a war, it's highly likely that China will solidify its lead in the technologies of the ongoing Third Industrial Revolution.

And historically, the leaders of previous Industrial Revolutions (the UK and then the US) became the richest peoples on the planet with the highest living standards, and also global superpowers.

In such a world China would be the global leader in clean energy and electric vehicles, driving adoption worldwide. You could argue that China is saving the world from the worst effects of catastrophic climate change. And the superlatives applying to China will not be rare, they would be common. An example is China currently building out the 1st phase of what will be the most advanced planetary defence system against planet-killing asteroids. There will be much for the average Taiwanese person to admire and be proud of, if they were Chinese citizens.

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9dashline said:

Nope he has not, he believes China can achieve 4x US GDP lol

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fonster said:

Not everyone can afford to move to an entirely different country, hell, just take a look at current plane ticket prices. People also have careers they've built up in the west over decades, it's not as easy as you make it out to be with your white supremacist "go back to china" line.

It's funny how you keep saying you're not trying to make things political, yet you always start these politically charges topics and continue them. I know what you're trying to do here, but maybe try your luck on twitter? You'll have a larger audience to work with.

And if the mainland does take back taiwan, why don't you just move? You're free to do so.

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9dashline said:

A one way ticket from US to China right now is as low as $1500 USD fyi

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efficient_kiwi said:

I have no idea how to reply to this. I have never seen reports of the US threatening to invade Taiwan, do you have a source on that?

For the rest of it, obviously this is entirely anecdotal. But I've lived in the US before when I was young, and returned once recently, and I was always treated with respect and as equals. I still know many family friends who live in the US. I'm sure you also know people who are currently living in western countries. Why would they live there if, I quote, they are in "a situation of servitude"? They most certainly are free to return.

Anyway, interesting perspective, thanks for chiming in.

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