Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

tphuang said:

You should not base your responses/view of mainlanders based on this thread alone. There are a lot of passionate nationalist here.

It actually alarms me how many people on this thread are eager to have a war with Taiwanese brothers. The people that actually makes decisions are a lot more rational than that.

let's be clear about a few things:
1) Taiwan currently is functionally independent but not legally independent.
2) Mainland China can live with a functionally independent Taiwan as long as there is still hope of peaceful reunification at some point.
3) China cannot live with a Taiwan that gets too close to formal independence, because then achieving unification would be an invasion rather than concluding an unsettled civil war.
4) if Taiwanese people do not want a 1 country 2 party situation like the one that HK is in, then it can work with Western countries to negotiate a much better deal than the one HK ended up with. HK didn't have much of a choice, because it was supposed to return to China after 99 year lease. Also PLA, could have just easily took over HK without a fight. Taiwan is in a better position to negotiate for itself.
5) What Chinese government want is for Taiwan to be 100% aligned with it on geopolitical issues and allow it to use military bases. There are significant amount of freedom Taiwan can enjoy under that framework.
6) If US is unable to defend Taiwan from Chinese invasion (which is the case by all war gaming), then the smartest thing that Taiwanese government can do is to pursue unification under its terms.
7) The worst thing Taiwanese government can do is to drew the ire of China by pushing for greater international recognition.
8) While some Taiwanese people are tuned in with the reality of Taiwan's situation, I don't get the sense that's the case of the majority of Taiwan's population.
9) If Taiwanese people actually do realize the precariousness of their situation, then they should be demonstrating against DPP conducting its current policy seeking greater autonomy.
10) America is looking to defend Taiwan to maintain its hegemon position in Asia, not because it's looking out for Taiwan's interest. That's why when Hesper comes to Taiwan, he is asking how many Taiwanese people can suit up and die for the counter-PRC effort.

Keep in mind that while you are looking at things from a Taiwanese perspective, there are also wider issues at play. If we go by the theory that no Chinese government can allow a fully independent Taiwan that can pursue its own alliances and that US military will seek to defend Taiwan as the center part of its APAC hegemon policy.
1) China will be attacking Japan and US forces at the same time it attacks Taiwan
2) China is willing to live with full decoupling from Western countries and a 25 to 35% economic contraction to keep Taiwan from achieving legal independence.
3) A war between US and China will lead to world wide economic collapse. Japan and Taiwan will suffer the worst economic collapse of all the parties.
4) China will likely not attempt a buildup for landing of Taiwan until it completely defeats the American and Japanese forces pre-positioned in Asia. As such, Taiwan will have a month to figure out whether or not it wants to surrender and end the PLAN blockade in that case. A forced landing where both sides of strait suffer huge loss of lives should not need to happen.
5) The following war between US and China could lead to a nuclear standoff that would be catastrophic for humanity.

So given all of these problems, the best case scenario for everyone is for Western countries to help Taiwan negotiate the best term of "unification" as possible. Where Western countries can use the threat of full decoupling from China as a way to keep China from breaking its words and giving Taiwan the HK treatment.

I understand this is not a scenario that Western or Taiwanese politicians and public are willing to think about at the moment. But based on everything that different militaries have looked at, this is the reality of the situation. It would be the best if Taiwanese military is honest and tell Taiwanese public how hopeless their situation is and prepare Taiwanese people to take the least destructive option.

I hope I'm not too rough here on you. I'm just trying to be realistic. One of my best friends live in Taipei and I would urge him to get himself and his family out of Taiwan in the next few years in case things take a turn for the worst.

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tygyg1111 said:

So the main problem to me is that after a few short decades, the children of the KMT, who resisted the Japanese and fought for China with their blood, now think that they are somehow not Chinese.

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Gogurt4ever said:

What would such a negotiated unification look like? How would mainland influence over Taiwan change, and how would Taiwanese institutions, such as their military and their political system fare?

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lcloo said:

Yes, unfortunately this is already happening, the changes in history text book in schools that dis-associate Taiwanese from Chinese history and culture has already made young generations being ignorant about their Chinese roots as the present day Japanese's ignorance on history of world war 2.

If you can understand China, watch this video on street interview of young people in Taipei. The subject of questionnaire is "Do you know where your ancestors came from?".

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lcloo said:

Yes, unfortunately this is already happening, the changes in history text book in schools that dis-associate Taiwanese from Chinese history and culture has already made young generations being ignorant about their Chinese roots as the present day Japanese's ignorance on history of world war 2.

If you can understand China, watch this video on street interview of young people in Taipei. The subject of questionnaire is "Do you know where your ancestors came from?".

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tphuang said:

I have no idea. I've always envisioned a system where Taiwan can exist as it is with its own government and police force and maybe even armed forces, but that armed forces will be allied up with mainland. They will conduct joint defense of Taiwan/Mainland with PLA. Try to think about what is the easiest to stomach from Taiwanese point of view. They don't want to be ruled by an authoritarian government. So any peaceful unification with Taiwan has to give them more autonomy than HK ever got.

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abenomics12345 said:

I would hazard a guess that PRC would be okay with a type of relationship that is similar to what the US has with Japan.

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