Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
- Thread starter sndef888
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Taiwanese killed Vietnamese refugees and destroyed the evidence. Nobody saw jail time in the end.
Blame the Americans and blame the KMT for allowing their leadership to be influenced and taken over by collaborators.
Surely you understand in this era of increased American aggression (look at unilateral economic aggression, military buildup of a 12 carrier fleet to China's 3, threats of invading Taiwan and so on for proof) China can not afford not using its territory on Taiwan to defend national security.
We live in an era where the so-called G7, all nations guilty of immense cruelty and genocide, many of whom have showed uncivilised conduct recently, are threatening Chinese borders and the rights of Chinese people to a free and safe life. More and more, the rhetoric and actions of the US regime resembles open fascism, and due to Chinese/USSR strategic blunder in ww2, Japanazis from the Imperial days have never fully been purged from Japan.
Of course, the chances of ROC becoming free from enemy collaborators seems lower and lower day by day, maybe the people on Taiwan can still change the situation, but I doubt it. Instead, armed reunification will happen.
You do not seem to understand the point of re-education, which means winning hearts and minds on a population brainwashed by fascist ideals, without using the western method (genocide or forced deportation).
Just like many uyghurs fell to the inhuman ideology of wahhabism, a form of hardline Islamic fundamentalism promoted by US ally Saudi Arabia, re-education is meant to bring them civilized values and encourage pride in living in a modern socialist society, not pride in racism, fundamentalism and other self destructive behaviors.
Go see for yourself what Americans do to Asians no matter if they're shanghaiese, hongkongese, taiwanese or otherwise, go see what the US state is saying about Chinese people and ask yourself if you'll be treated anything different no matter what you say.
US, and other genocidal countries, are no allies to Asians, no more than the SS were allies of slavs. They're merely recruiting useful idiots, like the Latvian and Estonian SS legions of WW2, to act as cannon fodder. Or like how uyghur terrorists travel to fight with ISIS only to realize in true wahhabism, they're a lower class than the Arab believers.
So therefore, re-education will happen, because believing in Americanism and IJA nationalism is self destructive, it puts Chinese in a situation of servitude based on racism, which is incompatible with civilized society.
Do we know if it is the USA or UK that is putting Lithuania up to this stunt?
As the UK looked to have been the one that put Lithuania up to the Kaliningrad saga, at least the timing of a new deal with the UK suggests so (UK-Lithuania joint declaration on bilateral cooperation May 2022).
BTW, does anyone know where the UK carriers are? If either the USA or China block Lithuania they might have the very scary prospect of answering to her majesty!)
UK media dutifully promoting and running adverts for Lithuania as part of its rewards for being a good servant (regarding the Taiwan Straight issue (and no doubt Kaliningrad before that)?:
Apparently, just now, in this time of crisis; "The Lithuanian capital is a destination on the rise, with a thriving nightlife and food scene. Chef Liutauras Čeprackas shares his highlights of his home city."
Only under a peaceful re-unification scenario. has been the core of the PRC's official policy of peaceful re-unification since 1981. It states that after peaceful re-unification, Taiwan would enjoy a high degree of autonomy, retain its armed forces, its socio-economic system will remain unchanged, and the central government will not interfere with local affairs in Taiwan.
Ye's Nine Points was the basis of the 1992 Consensus between the CPC and KMT. However, the 1992 Consensus was rejected by Tsai Ing-wen after her 2020 re-election and the prospect for peaceful re-unification is basically nil now. Obviously, Ye's Nine Point would not apply in any armed re-unification scenario.
It's from a tabloid but no harm reading. Take it with a pinch of salt, thanks.
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Exact way China could ‘crush’ US in Taiwan by overrunning defences in just DAYS
AMERICA could be crushed by China in a war over Taiwan in just days -and needs to “urgently” up its war preparations, a leading expert has said.
The chilling warning from Oriana Skylar Mastro, an authority on China’s military, comes after years of simulations showing crushing defeats for America.
Skylar Mastro describes the war beginning with a “massive salvo of missiles” fired by China.
The assault takes out the only effective air base in the region and ends a week later with Chinese forces securely on Taiwan in a war the US could “absolutely” lose.
An attack on Kadena, on the Japanese island of Okinawa, could see the based disabled “in hours” with “60 per cent of the aircraft” lost, explains Skylar Mastro.
What happens next is the attack on Taiwan itself, again with missiles, to target air defences, quickly followed by the main amphibious assault, she said.....
Continue with full story here:
--------
Exact way China could ‘crush’ US in Taiwan by overrunning defences in just DAYS
AMERICA could be crushed by China in a war over Taiwan in just days -and needs to “urgently” up its war preparations, a leading expert has said.
The chilling warning from Oriana Skylar Mastro, an authority on China’s military, comes after years of simulations showing crushing defeats for America.
Skylar Mastro describes the war beginning with a “massive salvo of missiles” fired by China.
The assault takes out the only effective air base in the region and ends a week later with Chinese forces securely on Taiwan in a war the US could “absolutely” lose.
An attack on Kadena, on the Japanese island of Okinawa, could see the based disabled “in hours” with “60 per cent of the aircraft” lost, explains Skylar Mastro.
What happens next is the attack on Taiwan itself, again with missiles, to target air defences, quickly followed by the main amphibious assault, she said.....
Continue with full story here:
Third party agitation is easier to deal with if there's no military to back it up. Being under central control doesn't exactly make you immune to agitation, look at Xinjiang, Tibet, etc.
You should not base your responses/view of mainlanders based on this thread alone. There are a lot of passionate nationalist here.
It actually alarms me how many people on this thread are eager to have a war with Taiwanese brothers. The people that actually makes decisions are a lot more rational than that.
let's be clear about a few things:
1) Taiwan currently is functionally independent but not legally independent.
2) Mainland China can live with a functionally independent Taiwan as long as there is still hope of peaceful reunification at some point.
3) China cannot live with a Taiwan that gets too close to formal independence, because then achieving unification would be an invasion rather than concluding an unsettled civil war.
4) if Taiwanese people do not want a 1 country 2 party situation like the one that HK is in, then it can work with Western countries to negotiate a much better deal than the one HK ended up with. HK didn't have much of a choice, because it was supposed to return to China after 99 year lease. Also PLA, could have just easily took over HK without a fight. Taiwan is in a better position to negotiate for itself.
5) What Chinese government want is for Taiwan to be 100% aligned with it on geopolitical issues and allow it to use military bases. There are significant amount of freedom Taiwan can enjoy under that framework.
6) If US is unable to defend Taiwan from Chinese invasion (which is the case by all war gaming), then the smartest thing that Taiwanese government can do is to pursue unification under its terms.
7) The worst thing Taiwanese government can do is to drew the ire of China by pushing for greater international recognition.
8) While some Taiwanese people are tuned in with the reality of Taiwan's situation, I don't get the sense that's the case of the majority of Taiwan's population.
9) If Taiwanese people actually do realize the precariousness of their situation, then they should be demonstrating against DPP conducting its current policy seeking greater autonomy.
10) America is looking to defend Taiwan to maintain its hegemon position in Asia, not because it's looking out for Taiwan's interest. That's why when Hesper comes to Taiwan, he is asking how many Taiwanese people can suit up and die for the counter-PRC effort.
Keep in mind that while you are looking at things from a Taiwanese perspective, there are also wider issues at play. If we go by the theory that no Chinese government can allow a fully independent Taiwan that can pursue its own alliances and that US military will seek to defend Taiwan as the center part of its APAC hegemon policy.
1) China will be attacking Japan and US forces at the same time it attacks Taiwan
2) China is willing to live with full decoupling from Western countries and a 25 to 35% economic contraction to keep Taiwan from achieving legal independence.
3) A war between US and China will lead to world wide economic collapse. Japan and Taiwan will suffer the worst economic collapse of all the parties.
4) China will likely not attempt a buildup for landing of Taiwan until it completely defeats the American and Japanese forces pre-positioned in Asia. As such, Taiwan will have a month to figure out whether or not it wants to surrender and end the PLAN blockade in that case. A forced landing where both sides of strait suffer huge loss of lives should not need to happen.
5) The following war between US and China could lead to a nuclear standoff that would be catastrophic for humanity.
So given all of these problems, the best case scenario for everyone is for Western countries to help Taiwan negotiate the best term of "unification" as possible. Where Western countries can use the threat of full decoupling from China as a way to keep China from breaking its words and giving Taiwan the HK treatment.
I understand this is not a scenario that Western or Taiwanese politicians and public are willing to think about at the moment. But based on everything that different militaries have looked at, this is the reality of the situation. It would be the best if Taiwanese military is honest and tell Taiwanese public how hopeless their situation is and prepare Taiwanese people to take the least destructive option.
I hope I'm not too rough here on you. I'm just trying to be realistic. One of my best friends live in Taipei and I would urge him to get himself and his family out of Taiwan in the next few years in case things take a turn for the worst.
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Oriana unfortunately still understates China's ability to just destroy US infrastructure in the APAC region. Patchwork has discussed this multiple times. Once China completes replacing older generation of missiles with PCL191, DF-26/27, DF-16/17 and DF-100, the situation would be pretty hopeless for US military. Operating 6000 miles away from Pearl and 4000 miles away from Alaska, even 3 or 4 US CSGs would have a hard time defeating the full weight of Chinese military power right next doors. That's why there is concern on US intelligence and military that China might launch attack by 2024/2025.
In my mind, they are not going to do anything in the near term unless Taiwan or America crosses a red line. They still have to finish their nuke buildup, the 2015 initiated reforms, greater precision strike inventory and make themselves sanction proof. Even after that time, I don't see any reason why China will want to resort to an invasion. That would be terrible for everyone. At some point, it will be obvious to everyone that America cannot keep its hegemonic position in East Asia. That might take another 20 years, but it will most likely happen. The power balance will keep growing in China's favor during that time.
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