Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

Biscuits said:

Rather than warning, it's that more and more equipment is sent to Fujian and I don't see the stuff going home until the civil war is over. On day 1 of the crisis, people even spotted APCs with active defense systems which haven't ever been seen during open events. These are almost certainly 100% war ready units.

Also the emphasis on China's low spending could very well be shown to a misdirection much like how Russians had way more missiles than the West believed they had stockpiled.

If China is gonna bide their time, the govt would have gone out to announce higher budget and military buildup in response to US aggression. However if they're gonna hit sooner rather than later, then a secret mobilization and rearmament makes more sense. There may have been several years where China already had real spending on par with NATO level.

Winter attack makes more sense because the heightened difficulty will disfavor US who suffers more from tyranny of distance.

US invasion seems more and more inevitable, but as with almost every major cold war battlefield between China and America, China came out ahead due to better and longer term planning, it wouldn't be out of line to assume this battlefield will be the same.

China is no Ukraine nor Poland, they'll not sit around as US plans to take territory and start a world war. Beijing will move first and by the time US is ready to flood Taiwan with little green men and declare Taiwan "independence", the guns and missiles of the PLA will already be waiting on the Eastern shoreline.

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latenlazy said:

What bothers me about a lot of Taiwanese perspectives on this issue is that people are so fixated on moral theater and it doesn’t help at all resolve the problem. Even if you’re pro independence realistically Taiwan will never be able to achieve independence peacefully without persuading people in China to find that outcome acceptable, and being condescending just encourages people in China to adopt harsher attitudes towards Taiwanese perspectives. Is that fair? No. But the harsh reality of politics is that the most realistic solutions are rarely ever fair. You have to genuinely care about the other side’s views if you want to find common ground, and in my experience a lot of Taiwanese like to feign that they care as a matter of looking morally superior without really acknowledging when people from the Chinese side don’t feel listened to. This is understandable, as obviously everyone wants to settle things on their own terms, and China’s natural position of power in this situation means the Chinese side can afford to be less sensitive to Taiwanese views, but in this kind of situation you can either care about moral theater or you can care about practical outcomes. The former actively works against the latter, and the former has a predictable ending that is going to be far worse for Taiwan than it will be for China. Because at some point the pain of being isolated by the western world for using force against Taiwan is going to be negligible and tolerable for China, and simply hoping and wishing for a China that will forever remain weak or incapable is just a bad bet. If China really wants reunification as an outcome and the West actively tries to suppress and undermine China then a weaker China will have nothing to lose trying again and again to “correct” the Taiwan situation, and will be even more motivated by resentments to boot, and if China does manage to become powerful enough to ignore punishment by the western world then they’re going to move ahead without concerning themselves with what anyone wants. The nature of the balance of power here puts the onus on Taiwan to find a way to get China to change its mind, and while that’s not fair stirring hostilities with China while insisting China’s the one that’s being unreasonable so there’s nothing to consider from China’s perspective accomplishes pretty much nothing if you want to avoid a contest of powers as the way to decide Taiwan’s fate. Sorry for making you the target of this commentary, but some of your posts here really evoke this sort of dynamic that I think is quite counterproductive.

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NeutralWarrior said:

My deepest regret and utmost apology for not knowing Saint Vincent and the Grenadines is actually a country. I am truly sorry as I thought it was a Passport Selling Travel Agency. Now I know, ok.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1556578869821714432

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efficient_kiwi said:

Thank you for this comment, and please know that I will be completely sincere in this response. Perhaps there was a bit of sarcasm in other ones, lol, but I am going to be completely sincere in this one.

I totally agree with you re: a counterproductive dynamic. I just think we’re operating from very different pretexts, since you seem to think peaceful unification is possible (which is not the case for me, for reasons below). I actually think I understand why the Chinese think Taiwan should be part of China. Historically(well, up until 1895 happened) and culturally(well, up until we were cut off for 4 decades or so), it makes far more sense for Taiwan to be part of China than independent. I think the closest analogy would be Hokkaido and Japan: fairly recently colonized (by the Japanese from Honshu, in this case, about two centuries after Koxinga removed the Dutch), some geographical barriers (though of course, the Tsugaru Strait is far narrower than the Taiwan Strait), a fairly significant indigenous population that was brutally dispersed, etc. The difference however, is that the 清 dynasty was incompetent, arrogant, debaucherous, and senile, and couldn’t even hold on to one of their most lucrative and quickly-modernizing provinces, unlike the Japanese who reformed and beat the Russians decisively. As the Athenians once said, “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.” C’est la vie.

Ok, that was a pretty significant detour and this isn’t supposed to be a history lesson. The issue, I think, that is causing all the moral theater is that most Taiwanese no longer think it possible to convince the Chinese of Taiwan’s independence. Peaceful independence has always been a pipe dream, and other options such as 一國兩制 are no longer acceptable after seeing what happened to Hong Kong. I recall 真普選, 雨傘革, and 反送中 very vividly. I’m going to be frank with you: I no longer think peaceful unification is possible. The recent comments from your ambassador to France, Lu Shaye, has only solidified this view. I’m sure you’ve heard, but he insisted that the Taiwanese will be subjected to “re-education” after unification. Your government is going to subject us to the same treatment as Uyghurs, who were bombing train stations and randomly stabbing people in the streets, while I am pretty sure that there have been nada Taiwanese terrorism attacks. 是可忍，孰不可忍？

Considering that we are currently outnumbered, outspent, out-teched by the Chinese, plus engaging in dialogue appears to be futile (considering the gulf between our two peoples, not to mention governments), what else is there to do but condescend and engage in vague moral concepts such as democracy and human rights? It’s one of the final joys left to a people who is likely to suffer great pain and suffering sometime in the decades to come. I care about moral theater not because I don’t care about practical outcomes, but because I cannot see any practical outcome that is acceptable to me. Why should we unify if we are fine on our own? If we unify, is there a future where we choose our own leadership through free and fair elections, where we can assemble in the streets and protest the government, and where we can post funny pictures of Xi Jinping as Winnie? (Actually, I think you can do the latter now if I’m correct, but that initial censoring was so bizarre.) Would such an 一國兩制 be even remotely acceptable to the CCP? I think not, though I'm open to arguments to the contrary.

I just don’t think there is such a future short of some miracle where a) the Chinese people are collectively brainwashed into thinking Taiwan is independent, b) Taiwan breaks a blockade, throws the PLA back across the Taiwan Strait, and avoids starving to death, or c) the Chinese economy inexplicably collapses. Short of these, it’s likely that I would die in the war or be re-educated sometime in my late-twenties to early-thirties, and that is just f-ing unfortunate. So, so, so f-ing unfortunate.

So to all the Chinese people reading this, forgive the 灣灣’s condescension and snobbishness. It is about the only thing left to these Taiwanese who see clearly that we are the Melians to the Chinese’s Athenians, and yet will not, cannot, stomach the thought of simply laying down without a fight. Many of us are, I believe, stuck between a rock and a hard place. So we try to 富國強兵 as best as we can, and we laugh at the Chinese on the internet whenever we get the chance, while we try to not think too hard about the 東風 and 鷹擊 ready to blow us to bits. At the same time, I’m sorry about the mockery and condescension, but some of you must realize how ridiculous figures like 華春瑩 are, right? Recent tweet of “palates don’t cheat” being exhibit A. (I can lay out why I think it was absolutely hilarious if any of y'all are interested. )

I apologize for any emotional discourse. In the meantime, in the interest of convincing at least some Chinese that Taiwan is indeed currently de facto independent, I will take any questions you may have on this matter. I’m not sure how many of you don’t think Taiwan is de facto independent, but regardless, I’m open to questions. And I will try to avoid any condescension or moral theater whatsoever. Whether Taiwan should be independent is another matter entirely. I personally think it should be subjected to a referendum like the Quebec or Scottish ones, with the terms of a referendum laid out in an act (something like the Clarity Act in Canada) passed by the Legislative Yuan to legitimize the secession of a region from the ROC. The reality of the situation, however, is that the PRC will do what they please ‘cuz they got the big guns. There is no “justice” to be discussed ‘til we also get some big guns.

TL;DR: practical outcomes outside of war hopeless, chances of persuading Chinese people of Taiwanese independence nil, open to discourse but to me it is probably useless anyhow, still, open to questions.

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Minm said:

If the US and the DPP back down, that's a win for China. If they don't and start a war, that's also a win for China. War isn't certain. There's still time for the DPP to compromise. You have to at least give them the opportunity to consider one country two systems before you destroy them and implement one country one system

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efficient_kiwi said:

Thank you for this comment, and please know that I will be completely sincere in this response. Perhaps there was a bit of sarcasm in other ones, lol, but I am going to be completely sincere in this one.

I totally agree with you re: a counterproductive dynamic. I just think we’re operating from very different pretexts, since you seem to think peaceful unification is possible (which is not the case for me, for reasons below). I actually think I understand why the Chinese think Taiwan should be part of China. Historically(well, up until 1895 happened) and culturally(well, up until we were cut off for 4 decades or so), it makes far more sense for Taiwan to be part of China than independent. I think the closest analogy would be Hokkaido and Japan: fairly recently colonized (by the Japanese from Honshu, in this case, about two centuries after Koxinga removed the Dutch), some geographical barriers (though of course, the Tsugaru Strait is far narrower than the Taiwan Strait), a fairly significant indigenous population that was brutally dispersed, etc. The difference however, is that the 清 dynasty was incompetent, arrogant, debaucherous, and senile, and couldn’t even hold on to one of their most lucrative and quickly-modernizing provinces, unlike the Japanese who reformed and beat the Russians decisively. As the Athenians once said, “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.” C’est la vie.

Ok, that was a pretty significant detour and this isn’t supposed to be a history lesson. The issue, I think, that is causing all the moral theater is that most Taiwanese no longer think it possible to convince the Chinese of Taiwan’s independence. Peaceful independence has always been a pipe dream, and other options such as 一國兩制 are no longer acceptable after seeing what happened to Hong Kong. I recall 真普選, 雨傘革, and 反送中 very vividly. I’m going to be frank with you: I no longer think peaceful unification is possible. The recent comments from your ambassador to France, Lu Shaye, has only solidified this view. I’m sure you’ve heard, but he insisted that the Taiwanese will be subjected to “re-education” after unification. Your government is going to subject us to the same treatment as Uyghurs, who were bombing train stations and randomly stabbing people in the streets, while I am pretty sure that there have been nada Taiwanese terrorism attacks. 是可忍，孰不可忍？

Considering that we are currently outnumbered, outspent, out-teched by the Chinese, plus engaging in dialogue appears to be futile (considering the gulf between our two peoples, not to mention governments), what else is there to do but condescend and engage in vague moral concepts such as democracy and human rights? It’s one of the final joys left to a people who is likely to suffer great pain and suffering sometime in the decades to come. I care about moral theater not because I don’t care about practical outcomes, but because I cannot see any practical outcome that is acceptable to me. Why should we unify if we are fine on our own? If we unify, is there a future where we choose our own leadership through free and fair elections, where we can assemble in the streets and protest the government, and where we can post funny pictures of Xi Jinping as Winnie? (Actually, I think you can do the latter now if I’m correct, but that initial censoring was so bizarre.) Would such an 一國兩制 be even remotely acceptable to the CCP? I think not, though I'm open to arguments to the contrary.

I just don’t think there is such a future short of some miracle where a) the Chinese people are collectively brainwashed into thinking Taiwan is independent, b) Taiwan breaks a blockade, throws the PLA back across the Taiwan Strait, and avoids starving to death, or c) the Chinese economy inexplicably collapses. Short of these, it’s likely that I would die in the war or be re-educated sometime in my late-twenties to early-thirties, and that is just f-ing unfortunate. So, so, so f-ing unfortunate.

So to all the Chinese people reading this, forgive the 灣灣’s condescension and snobbishness. It is about the only thing left to these Taiwanese who see clearly that we are the Melians to the Chinese’s Athenians, and yet will not, cannot, stomach the thought of simply laying down without a fight. Many of us are, I believe, stuck between a rock and a hard place. So we try to 富國強兵 as best as we can, and we laugh at the Chinese on the internet whenever we get the chance, while we try to not think too hard about the 東風 and 鷹擊 ready to blow us to bits. At the same time, I’m sorry about the mockery and condescension, but some of you must realize how ridiculous figures like 華春瑩 are, right? Recent tweet of “palates don’t cheat” being exhibit A. (I can lay out why I think it was absolutely hilarious if any of y'all are interested. )

I apologize for any emotional discourse. In the meantime, in the interest of convincing at least some Chinese that Taiwan is indeed currently de facto independent, I will take any questions you may have on this matter. I’m not sure how many of you don’t think Taiwan is de facto independent, but regardless, I’m open to questions. And I will try to avoid any condescension or moral theater whatsoever. Whether Taiwan should be independent is another matter entirely. I personally think it should be subjected to a referendum like the Quebec or Scottish ones, with the terms of a referendum laid out in an act (something like the Clarity Act in Canada) passed by the Legislative Yuan to legitimize the secession of a region from the ROC. The reality of the situation, however, is that the PRC will do what they please ‘cuz they got the big guns. There is no “justice” to be discussed ‘til we also get some big guns.

TL;DR: practical outcomes outside of war hopeless, chances of persuading Chinese people of Taiwanese independence nil, open to discourse but to me it is probably useless anyhow, still, open to questions.

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