Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

Status
Not open for further replies.

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
I wonder how long will average americans put up with the economic damage from reckless u.s actions against China, they can barely cope with the inflation from the russian sanctions

There are americans actually starting to believe that nuclear war is not that bad and won't affect the world that much in order to push for a direct confrontation with Russia.

You might be underestimating how deluded they are at this point.
 

Cyclist

Junior Member
IMHO, a negotiated settlement between China and USA might require USA to not be able to meddle in Taiwan and in order to do that maybe need to have buffer zones so USA needs to leave some bases around China (probably in South Korea and Okinawa and islands around Okinawa), I am not sure if USA will accept that.

I believe just sit down and watching how USA handles its economic/society problems and the decline is more reasonable, when its economy is becoming weaker, to maintain all the bases that is has will be so costly, hopefully it will retreat just like how United Kingdom retreated from its colonies. Militarily, China still can not cause enough damage to mainland USA if only relying on ICBM (exclude nukes). If war breakout between USA and China, the warzone will be around mainland China (which will cause heavy damages and lay waste just like what happened in Syria, Ukraine, etc), needs to bring this to mainland USA too. In order to be able to do that, China needs time to produce more aircrafts carriers or maybe drones carriers and submarines.

By provoking China using Taiwan card (I don't believe President Biden did not have the power to stop Nancy Pelosi, this is all deliberate and double talk), I think the conversations these past few months between various levels from China and USA (from Wendy Sherman, Janet Yellen, Antony Blinken, Jerome Powell, President Biden) didn't end well. USA needs China help just like after the economic crisis in 2008 and probably because of past provocations from Trump administrations (Hong Kong, covid-19, Uyghur genocide hoax, trade wars, creating alliances targeting China), China reluctant to help this time unless USA make changes. Taiwan card is one of the last cards that USA has left. If China can handle this well without erupting hot war between China and Taiwan (just like what happened between Russia and Ukraine), I think USA will be hard to find another reason on how to bait China to war.


About the question whether to solve the Taiwan problem now vs later.

While it's true that China is going to be stronger in the future compared to now. That also assumes America will continue to be a stable entity. Even a country the size of North Korea can become a solid obstacle if they are prepared to be crazy enough. What happens if a far right entity takes power in America?

America may be prepared to accept a negotiated settlement now if it doesn't disrupt the global economy too much. In a few years Taiwan may become a hill Americans are prepared to die on.

American assets that would be helping Taiwan now are currently busy in the Ukraine, not to mention the American war on terror is still going on, they even got the number two al-qaeda guy the other day.

American intelligence is good, but it's not infinite. If both these campaigns end, is China's military growth going to offset the resources freed up?

Finally, America has given China a legitimate grounds for forced reunification. The only argument for Pelosi's actions Americans are putting forward is "Americans can go wherever they want". That may suit their domestic audience, but it won't work in any international court.

After this Americans may play it safe not to provoke China so openly.
 

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
Good cop bad cop game. No thanks
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
If this bill somehow goes through (whether during the Biden's administration or whoever comes next), this wouldn't be just an utter disrespectful move against China, but also becoming a major step-up level of provocation against the People's Republic of China by the United States of America.

For everyone's information, countries with the "major non-NATO ally" status are akin to those of Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.

Giving Taiwan that designation would be equivalent to salami-slicing the One China Principle right up to the beating heart of China herself.

Even now, the US already has active-duty military deployments in Taiwan, including 29 Marines, 2 Army personnel, 3 Navy personnel, and 5 Air Force personnel.

So what's next?

Sending tens or hundreds more active-duty US military personnel to station in Taiwan?

Stationing US military equipment and weapon that are in service within the US military in Taiwan?

Setting up so-called "unofficial", small-sized US military stations in Taiwan?

Leading up to gradually setting up full-fledged US military bases in Taiwan as well?

Would that result in the US military sneaking in nuclear-tipped bombs and missiles into Taiwan whenever tensions in the region becomes too hot?

All those "We respect One China Policy" promises from the White House are just pure bullsh1t waste that rightfully belongs to the radioactive hall of Reactor 4 in Chernobyl at this point.

Honestly, the more I think about it, the more I believe that the situation around Taiwan and the Western Pacific is gradually becoming much more dangerous and critical for China, and for everyone in the Western Pacific. It is not just an indirect way of granting Taiwan formal independence, but also allowing the US military to point its daggers right up to the very heart of China and her populace of 1.4 billion people.

Let me be straightforward - This is going to be a Cuban Missile Crisis moment for China.

Seriously @Patchwork_Chimera, are those buffoons in the White House, Congress and even the Pentagon really that fvcking deluded, imbecilic and arrogant that they have very much elevated themselves high above the grounds of reality?

I am sensing that these bunch of jokers are leading us into a TOTAL NUCLEAR WAR here.

And... In order to prevent the above from happening, I can only say that time is no longer on China's side. China can no longer take things for granted anymore, because people out there who are beyond estatic to see China and all her 1.4 billion sons and daughters dead and gone actually EXIST.

Call me a hawk, alarmist, whatever. This is a ticking time bomb.
 
Last edited:

9dashline

Captain
Registered Member
If this bill somehow goes through (whether during the Biden's administration or whoever comes next), this wouldn't be just an utter disrespectful move against China, but also becoming a major step-up level of provocation against China by the United States of America.

For everyone's information, countries with the "major non-NATO ally" status are refering to those of Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.

Giving Taiwan that designation would be equivalent to salami-slicing the One China Principle right up to the beating hearts of China herself.

Even now, the US already has active-duty military deployments in Taiwan, including 29 Marines, 2 Army personnel, 3 Navy personnel, and 5 Air Force personnel. So what's next?

Sending tens or hundreds more active-duty US military personnel to station in Taiwan?

Stationing US military equipment and weapon that are in service within the US military in Taiwan?

Setting up so-called "unofficial", small-sized US military outpost in Taiwan?

Leading up to gradually setting up full-fledged military bases in Taiwan too?

Would that result in the US military sneaking in nuclear-tipped bombs and missiles into Taiwan whenever tensions in the region becomes too hot?

All those "We respect One China Policy" promises from the White House are just pure bullsh1t waste bin that rightfully belongs to the radioactive hell of Reactor 4 in Chernobyl at this point.

Honestly, the more I think about it, the more I believe that the situation around Taiwan and the Western Pacific is gradually becoming much more dangerous and critical for China, and for everyone in the Western Pacific. It is not just an indirect way of granting Taiwan formal independence, but also allowing the US military to point its daggers right up to the very heart of China and her populace of 1.4 billion people.

Let me be straioghtforward - This is going to be a Cuban Missile Crisis moment for China.

Seriously @Patchwork_Chimera, are those buffoons in the White House and the Congress really that fvcking imbecilic and arrogant that they have very much elevated high above from the grounds of reality?

I am sensing that we are sleepwalking into a TOTAL NUCLEAR WAR here.

In order to prevent the above from happening, time can no longer be on China's side. The reunification must be achieved before that becomes a reality, whether it is through peaceful or forceful means.
I stand by my analysis, its going hot in August 2022, and Im not talking about the Texas weather
 

Zichan

Junior Member
Registered Member
Anyone has a CMANO scenario editor file of this live drill that I can watch or recreate /reenact on my gaming pc?

Too bad matrixgames only sells the pro version of CMANO to gov organizations not steam gamers dont get to do the hypersonic simulations thus no DF-17
Didn’t they add HGVs to the commercial version in a recent patch?
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
IMHO, a negotiated settlement between China and USA might require USA to not be able to meddle in Taiwan and in order to do that maybe need to have buffer zones so USA needs to leave some bases around China (probably in South Korea and Okinawa and islands around Okinawa), I am not sure if USA will accept that.
The only solution is to become so strong the US doesn't dare intervene and it becomes obvious to everyone. Negotiating with the US over Taiwan is a classic submission to the enemy's "What's mine is mine and yours is negotiable." Besides, America doesn't care about Taiwan. They are simply using it to get to China. Therefore, the only thing that will be a worthwhile deal for them is to give them an even bigger lever to pull than Taiwan. They want China to stay number 2 but China must become number 1. So it is a fundamental conflict that has no compromise and no room for negotiation just like 2 boxers who both need to win have nothing to negotiate in the ring.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
So by this logic Russia is bluffing when it's threatening to nuke the west over the Ukraine. You don't think there are some positions countries are prepared to die for, and that can change the more unstable or bankrupt the government is?
Taiwan is not to America as Ukraine is to Russia. We can have that conversation when China is installs puppet governments in Canada and Mexico.
Today America may be prepared to concede Taiwan if a few points are met. If mediation occurs through an international body, domestic democratic institutions are preserved and so on. What happens if American people start seeing Taiwan as the Asian version of Israel and will accept no compromise?
I have a problem seeing white Americans accepting nuclear annihilation over island Chinese. But even if I'm wrong, then that's just the way it's got to be. Great Filter time.
 

obj 705A

Junior Member
Registered Member
About the question whether to solve the Taiwan problem now vs later.

While it's true that China is going to be stronger in the future compared to now. That also assumes America will continue to be a stable entity. Even a country the size of North Korea can become a solid obstacle if they are prepared to be crazy enough. What happens if a far right entity takes power in America?

America may be prepared to accept a negotiated settlement now if it doesn't disrupt the global economy too much. In a few years Taiwan may become a hill Americans are prepared to die on.

American assets that would be helping Taiwan now are currently busy in the Ukraine, not to mention the American war on terror is still going on, they even got the number two al-qaeda guy the other day.

American intelligence is good, but it's not infinite. If both these campaigns end, is China's military growth going to offset the resources freed up?

Finally, America has given China a legitimate grounds for forced reunification. The only argument for Pelosi's actions Americans are putting forward is "Americans can go wherever they want". That may suit their domestic audience, but it won't work in any international court.

After this Americans may play it safe not to provoke China so openly.
China was the one that gave all this publicity to Pelosi's visit not the US.
Even though this is the first time in a while that a high ranking US official visited Taiwan, still the level of rhetoric from China was and is so extreme, it's as if some one's mother was killed infront of him.
it was China that decided to amplify the visit as much as possible.

The Chinese leadership most likely saw just how weakened the US/EU are, and they calculated that in the current circumstances they will have the upper hand in a full trade war with the west. Xi definitely wants the reunification to happen under his term so his legacy surpasses that of Mao, not only that but regaining Taiwan would make Xi one of the greatest leaders in Chinese history since the failed Qing dynasty ruled China for hundreds of years. And since crazy a** Trump will rule the US till 2028 Xi doesn't have much time left before his lifespan ends, all these reasons combined have convinced Xi to strike.

The decision for an invasion probably was already taken before Pelosi's visit, they were just waiting for an excuse and then Pelosi came in and gave the excuse on a silver platter.

It was the US that fell in China's trap, not the other way around.
The aim of these current exercises is to bring more military equipment under the guise of exercises, plus another aim of these drills is also to confuse and exhaust the Taiwanese military because every time China fires a missile or sends an aircraft, Taiwan will have to scramble fighters, and the longer those Taiwanese fighters stay in the air, the more time they will spend on the ground for maintenance thus making it easier to take more of them out while they are still on the ground in one big missile strike.
 

Will76

New Member
Registered Member
So by this logic Russia is bluffing when it's threatening to nuke the west over the Ukraine. You don't think there are some positions countries are prepared to die for, and that can change the more unstable or bankrupt the government is?

What vassals do Russia and North Korea have? Both have threatened America with nuclear weapons recently. Again, you think both are bluffing?

Today America may be prepared to concede Taiwan if a few points are met. If mediation occurs through an international body, domestic democratic institutions are preserved and so on. What happens if American people start seeing Taiwan as the Asian version of Israel and will accept no compromise?
Taiwan isn't an israel situation.If China invaded South Korea, massacred a large number of people there, and then installed their own government. It'd be their israel.

Taiwan is Chinese. Just like Hong Kong.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top