Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
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btw, I would recommend everyone to listen to what Shilao said here in the beginning. Shooting down Pelosi plane or chaffing it or intercepting it and escorting it away was never a real option. Unless they wanted to start a shooting war (which they don't), this was never an option. Don't let the theatrics fool you.
You can also check rest of their commentary here.
More images from the PLA's August 4 exercise in the direction of Taiwan:
preparation of missile systems for launching Dongfeng-15V ballistic missiles; about 10 destroyers and frigates concentrated in the Taiwan area; J-20 and J-16 fighter jets were sent into airspace to patrol the Taiwan Strait; the in-flight refueling of the Y-20U aircraft (b.n. 20842) of the 38th Regiment of the 13th Air Force Division of the PLA Central Command of J-16 fighters was completed; Air defense, cover and escort tasks, day and night reconnaissance were elaborated.The PRC is gradually unveiling maps of "clearly focused military operations" announced in response to speaker Nancy Pelosi's dramatic boarding visit to Taipei Airport. Our friend Artem Maltsev understood the details. In short, welcome to the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis.
As in 1996, ballistic missile launches, as well as naval maneuvers and actions to practice a landing operation, are the main argument so far. NOTAMs for planned exercise areas have already been published. At first glance, one might get the impression that the PRC surrounds the island on all sides, preparing for a blockade or worse. The infographics circulating on Chinese social media showing the deployment of aviation and navy off the coast of the island are clearly aimed at creating just that effect.
In fact, the closest squares to the southwest and northeast of Taiwan are missile landing zones, while aircraft and surface ships are likely to keep some distance. The latter is clearly seen in the example of the previous crisis of 1995-1996, when the corner of one of the "arrival squares" sharply touched the border of the 12-mile zone. Today, the corresponding square has defiantly shifted into territorial waters, gently touching the border of Taiwan's now inland waters. In truly independent states, sovereignty over inland waters is equivalent to sovereignty over land. For the PRC, of course, as well as for a good half of the international community, there are no sovereign waters close to the island of Taiwan, because China is one and indivisible. However, the PRC's political-military leadership made an appropriate gesture - extremely kind and cautious.
Now about the #rivets: in the last day, we have already seen at least 11 launches of short and medium-range ballistic missiles: according to preliminary data, they are DF-11 and DF-15 complexes. After mass production in 1990-2000 years. the arsenal of these missiles can approach 1,500 units. For comparison, during the two years of the previous crisis, China launched only 6 missiles of the same class.
Also, the latest MLRS PHL-16 of an unusual caliber: 370 mm took part in the bombing. In fact, this complex is specially designed to bomb the main territory of Taiwan as a more “economical” substitute for short-range ballistic missiles (in this role, it can be compared with the now known HIMARS MLRS, and mention the already reiterated theses about convergence. and mixing of the "heavy MLRS" and "tactical BR" categories).
In the near future, more advanced ballistic missile launches can also be expected: the notorious "carrier killer" DF-21D and its intermediate-range older brother DF-26. Rumors are circulating about the DF-17 demonstrating a state-of-the-art hypersonic glider. It would be interesting to see the results of testing these missiles against moving surface targets, but frankly, it is doubtful that the Chinese towed the target ship to the desired area in advance.
In general, the PRC missile arsenal today is a kind of unknown relationship between large-scale samples of complexes from past generations and their more modern and advanced counterparts. Thus, mass launches of ballistic missiles such as, for example, DF-16 and DF-21 can be a sign of confidence in the depth of the latest part of your “powder magazine”. The opposite is also true.
In any case, islanders can only enjoy the fireworks: despite Taiwan having a pretty advanced missile defense system (Patriot PAC-3 and Tien Kung-III site), it still falls short of shooting areas.
From a military point of view, it is clear that these launches will not introduce anything fundamentally new into the "strait equation". The possibility of a massive "bombing calibration" by Taiwan has long been considered one of the PRC's main assets in the event of an escalation of the conflict. But the experience of well-known events shows that even with the objectively limited usefulness of missile defense systems, the armed forces scattered in urban agglomerations are able to perfectly absorb such attacks while maintaining stability.
Dayum but this is huge.
Now if only China can put the screws on the US enough for some more self-censure from them
So by this logic Russia is bluffing when it's threatening to nuke the west over the Ukraine. You don't think there are some positions countries are prepared to die for, and that can change the more unstable or bankrupt the government is?
What vassals do Russia and North Korea have? Both have threatened America with nuclear weapons recently. Again, you think both are bluffing?
Today America may be prepared to concede Taiwan if a few points are met. If mediation occurs through an international body, domestic democratic institutions are preserved and so on. What happens if American people start seeing Taiwan as the Asian version of Israel and will accept no compromise?
This fiasco makes everyone involved look like losers, even Pelosi. Only beneficiary of this fiasco is God Emperor Trump who is no doubt spamming Truth Social with "I told you so"s.
You are talking about the pre-reagan America. The “cold calculating strategists” are a extinct breed nowadays.
Source plz? I agree on the US’s military dominance for the past 70 years but the prosperity, in my opinion, didn’t start until FDR era. (Roughly 80 years ago, coincidence?)
It would be stupid for China to play someone else’s game. Plus the western narrative never claims itself to be superior, it declares itself to be the “norm”.
The existence of the US as a country and as a hegemonic power are two different things. It is the latter that’s gasping for its last breath. The latter couldn’t care less about the former. And it has the (nuclear) ability to bring the whole world with it in its last attempt to fight a certain doom, that’s what people are worried about.
I thought this was already clear to CPC leadership back during era of trump's trade war, tech war and targeting of Huawei. Maybe even during Obama pivot to Asia.
Trump would never let something escalate to this level without getting something in return, never. Despite the Democrats insulting Trump as a huge trouble maker they’ve been way more irresponsible with their pointless escalation.
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