Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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Zichan

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lych470 said:
As much as it is a slap in the face for Xi, I think it's an even bigger slap on the face for Biden, Blinken, Sullivan et al. The US side can't even form a coherent foreign policy, let along grand strategy for the next 5 to 10 years.
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You forgot the US foreign policy establishment, aka the Blob. They’re the reason why US foreign policy, regardless of whether the conservatives or liberals are in charge, tends to follow roughly the same trajectory.
 
Phead128

Phead128

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reservior dogs said:
If my reading of the Chinese response is correct, they don't want to see the visits stop. More visits will allow them to continue and expand the scope of their military exercises until it becomes a regular ongoing event. If the U.S. does not respond to their exercises, it will change the status quo on the ground in due time.
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Agreed. We all know UK and US won't intervene to defend, so if China can operationalize military exercises within Taiwan territorial waters, this represents a significant strategic degradation in exchange for meaningless symbolic visits.
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

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obj 705A said:
China was the one that gave all this publicity to Pelosi's visit not the US.
Even though this is the first time in a while that a high ranking US official visited Taiwan, still the level of rhetoric from China was and is so extreme, it's as if some one's mother was killed infront of him.
it was China that decided to amplify the visit as much as possible.

The Chinese leadership most likely saw just how weakened the US/EU are, and they calculated that in the current circumstances they will have the upper hand in a full trade war with the west. Xi definitely wants the reunification to happen under his term so his legacy surpasses that of Mao, not only that but regaining Taiwan would make Xi one of the greatest leaders in Chinese history since the failed Qing dynasty ruled China for hundreds of years. And since crazy a** Trump will rule the US till 2028 Xi doesn't have much time left before his lifespan ends, all these reasons combined have convinced Xi to strike.

The decision for an invasion probably was already taken before Pelosi's visit, they were just waiting for an excuse and then Pelosi came in and gave the excuse on a silver platter.

It was the US that fell in China's trap, not the other way around.
The aim of these current exercises is to bring more military equipment under the guise of exercises, plus another aim of these drills is also to confuse and exhaust the Taiwanese military because every time China fires a missile or sends an aircraft, Taiwan will have to scramble fighters, and the longer those Taiwanese fighters stay in the air, the more time they will spend on the ground for maintenance thus making it easier to take more of them out while they are still on the ground in one big missile strike.
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Let’s not retro actively defend this dumb decision like Jai Hinds usually do. It was clearly meant to deter the Pelosi and failed. What’s happening now are makeup measures.
 
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Appix

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The Biden administration is lobbying Democratic senators to put the brakes on a bill that would alter US policy toward Taiwan, including by designating it as a major non-NATO ally, according to people familiar with the matter.

The legislation also would provide Taiwan with $4.5 billion in security aid and support its participation in international organizations. It is sponsored by Foreign Relations Chair Bob Menendez, a New Jersey Democrat, and Republican Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, both harsh critics of China, which considers the self-governing island of Taiwan as part of its territory.

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siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

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Appix said:
The Biden administration is lobbying Democratic senators to put the brakes on a bill that would alter US policy toward Taiwan, including by designating it as a major non-NATO ally, according to people familiar with the matter.

The legislation also would provide Taiwan with $4.5 billion in security aid and support its participation in international organizations. It is sponsored by Foreign Relations Chair Bob Menendez, a New Jersey Democrat, and Republican Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, both harsh critics of China, which considers the self-governing island of Taiwan as part of its territory.

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Paper tigers of the world, unite, you have nothing to lose but your dignity.
 
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blindsight

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Abominable said:
Well if the objective was to prevent a senior western politician from visiting Taiwan, I think that will have been achieved. I'm sure America will veto the British delegation that's supposed to be visiting later in the year. It will also cause a lot of instability in Taiwan as Tsai will be asked why she approved of the visit.

The thing I'm wondering, is that making the most of America's blunder? Taiwan is supposed to have 60 days of oil and gas reserves. I suspect they'd been dipping into it because of high oil prices right now, maybe they only have a months worth of supplies?

Back in 2014, Ukraine was weak. Russia could have taken the whole country much easier than now. What happens if Taiwan now use the next few years to properly militarise and try to make themselves embargo proof?
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No way for them to match PLA’s pace…
 
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