Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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Biscuits

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FairAndUnbiased said:
The more I think about it the more this seems to me like a Sun Tzu "appear weak when you are strong" moment. Normalizing exercises in Taiwan claimed territory is a pretty big win, especially if uncontested. Because you can then salami slice from a much higher starting line. Now instead of "will they go into the ADIZ" it is "how long is this no fly thing". Especially if this is sustained yet sporadic, it keeps them on their toes.

Basically imposing a soft blockade on Taiwan would have been seen as ridiculously escalatory, but now is seen as weak. Wow. The Overton window didn't just move, they did a remodel.
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China's English speaking non-public funded media is bad, but it shouldn't be conflated with the foreign ministry and ministry of defense who can run circles around their western counterparts.

Once Pelosi raised this issue, China went on to bring the issue into public light as much as possible, to embarrass Biden. Biden was given the choice of proceeding and overextend for minimal gains, or canceling and evoking massive loss of face.

Now, as the western press in increasingly panicking as they start understanding, they've buried in hours, decades of Taiwan independence gains like the median line or China agreeing not to overly or moderate shipments/flights to the Island. They thought they were "calling China's bluff" but in reality they accepted a horrible trade deal.

The final cherry on top now is if someone now leaks some documents regarding insider trading, Pelosi and this event. Then, Biden's authority and Pelosi's professionalism will come under severe question, it might go as far as to destroy the whole Biden regime's stability if proof can be obtained that Pelosi risked war and used US foreign ministry, military and Tsai authority's hospitality in order to profit as a private citizen.

Of course, maybe Pelosi is so incorruptible that there really is no such dealings at all. How much do people wanna bet on that?
 
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reservior dogs

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Bob Smith said:
They can start learning by stopping their cringey "wolf warrior diplomacy." It just makes them look like unhinged paper tigers when push comes to shove.
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In this particular case, the rhetoric was part of the strategy. There was a chance it might dissuade Pelosi from going, which would be a huge and low cost win. I think they did not think through the cost of raising unrealistic expectations which were not met. In the future, they will be more careful about when and how to use their rhetoric.
 
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Abominable

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This should settle some of your doomsayers who are complaining about a lack of action immediately:

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Per international conventions, areas of military drills have to be disclosed three days in advance and 24 hours in advance under an emergency situation. "That is mainly to leave enough time for domestic and foreign ships to evacuate as well as for related civilian airlines to adjust their routes to avoid the areas. The move is intended to avoid hurting ordinary people during the drills, showing the rational and responsible attitude of the PLA," Zhang noted.
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If now is the time for reunification everything should be done by international law. That way if America or anyone else intervenes, they will be in the wrong.

There's been lots of criticism about China showing weakness here, but it all stems down to a single (deleted) tweet by one Global Times correspondent. All actions so far have been consistent with statements sanctioned by government officials.
 
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erikh

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erikh said:
My 2 cents:
US is trying to goad China into a violent/kinetic response, in order to unite its allies and otherwise would-be neutral countries to contain China.

In my opinion, China should not be goaded. China will be depicted as the bad guy anyway in media, no matter how justified they are. Heck, even the U.S. went to war to stop separatism. I don’t think it is in the _best_ interests of China in the long run to give a kinetic response due to the Pelosi visit. The punitive measures imposed by the other countries would lead to high costs to the Chinese. That would be detrimental to the rejuvenation of China. China should win by other means. Look, China is set to have the world’s biggest economy within a decade, perhaps even faster due to access to cheaper energy compared to Europe and RoW. China will be the market with highest tech products. Just look at the electric vehicles. 5G. High speed rail. This kind of provocation from the U.S. shows how desperate they are to fight China earlier and also to deflect the US government’s poor performance.

The difference between the Korean war and now, is that the opportunity cost is much higher for the Chinese. Paradoxically, the higher income a person has, the higher opportunity cost. That’s why some high-earning persons have harder time to take more time off compared to a below average-earning guy.

As for the legimacy of CCP and Xi Jinping, I believe the Chinese trust the government and Xi Jinping enough, looking back at how China handled corona compared to other countries, the economic growth and technological and infrastructure upgrade of the last decades. Look how the US tried to humiliate China by fanning the HK 2019 riots. They wanted HK Police or the PLA Garrison to give the world a “Tiananmen incident” #2. Who won in the end by keeping it cool?

China should however, definitely do something that shows strong assertion of its sovereignty – for example an armed overflight of Taiwan. However, it should not fire the first shot/missile, which is exactly what the U.S. wants. China, should it ever come to an armed unification, optimally a peaceful unification, is the one who chooses the exact timing when she is ready.
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I must say i feel relieved that China did not respond violently. What if Xi Jinping ordered to respond violently and as a result, China was sanctioned strongly, or even open war erupted? Yes, the whole world would lose, not only China, but would it be really be the best solution? China would face disruptions in supply chain that would deviate her trajectory to become the world's biggest economy as well as the leading country in science and technology. I'll wager that many Chinese would then lament that President Xi was too impulsive and hungry for glory in the Fourth Taiwan Straits crisis in 2022!

China's current demographics isn't good, and although her foundation is strong, a delay in her growth caused by war and sanctions could significantly and unnecessarily jeopardise her trajectory. Not to mention the loss of lives and antagonising large parts of the locals in Taiwan. Simply put: Would you prefer a united China earlier, but poorer and demonised by RoW, or would you prefer a united China later, but richer, stronger, more advanced and cohesive?

The fact that President Xi isn't a man who thirsts for glory and wants his name in the history books, but working for the _best_ interests of China in the _long_ term is a good sign. If these military exercises sets new precedence, it looks like a victory with real benefits from a seemingly PR loss.
 
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Rettam Stacf

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Bellum_Romanum said:
I know that am one of those "members" that were highly disappointed, agitated having perceived that China didn't react with extreme prejudice to deter would be salami slicing partakers. But people like us (from the peanut gallery) don't have an iota of clues as to what's happening or happened behind the scenes that were being considered for the Pelosi trip prior, during, and after.

We are highly more sensitive because some of us frequents other forums with sizable anti-China members and this latest stunt from Pelosi only added to the hype and raised our respective expectations that this time China is going to rekt and about to open up a new can of China against Pelosi = America/Jai Hinds supporters etc..especially when our collective emotional dopamine was aided by commentary from comrade hype man Xu, and various government issued statements. Then you add those videos of troops deployments popping up in Fujian then of course, we or at least in my case thought that something big was about to go down only to find out in real time that the hype didn't meet the expectation which was a huge letdown.

We have to realize by now that in positions of serious leadership emotions must be suppressed in order to be able to come up with a plan or execute something that does not quench a thirst for temporary but gratifying action, instead the actions taken require considerable time to be appreciated or seen it's actual results.

The outrage in China expressed by the Douyin generation, while palpable must not and never replaced the cerebral approach taken by the government leadership.

I maybe guilty of acting like an emotional toddler for not getting my sweet fixed but it doesn't mean that I don't appreciate what's being done as of right now. Frankly, if countries or leaders like wannabe supapowah a.k.a. Jai Hinds want to taste Chinese lead, all they have to do is take the first step and the PLA will be more than happy to send them to nirvana.

Social media is good for expressing outrage but it's not a substitute for sober thinking and careful planning. The future of China and the Chinese people are at stake. Any wrong move will set us all back that can impede China's dream of national reunification and rejuvenation.

I agree with @ZeEa5KPul @Biscuits @Overbom most especially with @ZeEa5KPul assessment even though the dude can be a little prick at times with his opinion.
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Thanks for the thoughtful post.

I never for a single moment believe that PLAAF will shoot down Pelosi's plane, and posted a couple of times on the topic. However, I have to admit that I was mildly disappointed that PLAAF did not "meet and escort" Pelosi's plane into Taiwan air space.

To me, the real issue is what China does after the plane has landed. Unless China has a few more tricks up her sleeve (and I hope they do), I do not see what China has done up to this point will deter or delay Taiwan from seeking independence. In fact, it will probably push Taiwan to accelerate the process (openly) as well as aggressively securing weapons (quietly), with the West and the Anglosphere in particular being more than just willing supporters and suppliers.

China's path to AR is almost guaranteed now and the time line has shorten. Whichever response option China chooses, it will likely not change the prospect of AR, nor delay it. So might as well pick the ones that gives China the best military and economic advantages when AR comes.

I hope there will be peaceful reunification. But reality tell me that it is next to impossible now.
 
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Biscuits

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reservior dogs said:
In this particular case, the rhetoric was part of the strategy. There was a chance it might dissuade Pelosi from going, which would be a huge and low cost win. I think they did not think through the cost of raising unrealistic expectations which were not met. In the future, they will be more careful about when and how to use their rhetoric.
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The rhetoric was mainly to trap USA in a war of words where they're weak, because to Americans, face is (almost) everything, making them predictable if you can rile them up and make them believe their image is threatened.

Getting her not to go was deliberately made nearly impossible for Biden. China thought through this extremely clearly, because they doubled down on rhetoric after the Biden call where it was already confirmed Pelosi would try to go.

"Unrealistic expectations that were not met" what do you think the idea of moving the status quo means? You now have the expectation of armed reunification, so anything short of that means being soft on Taiwan, even if it represents a huge setback for Taiwanese independence. Therefore, such actions can now be extremely easily justified without being seen as escalatory.

Chinese threats made America so elated when Pelosi wasn't touched that they declared this to be their win, and celebrated like Russians did when they took Crimea. Yet by selling their win that highly, they've also given China huge free reign to retaliate. Only, they're starting to realize that Russians got to keep Crimea, making EU countemoves "worth it" to some extent, but US has come no closer to gaining Taiwan after Pelosi than before Pelosi.

Chinese government realized US and Pelosi herself cannot resist running their mouths, so they gambled on that. And even though western press is now doing damage control, it worked somewhat.

Ironically, Trump was right that this was a "mess" and anything Pelosi touches turns into shit. If she didn't make this moronic suggestion first, China wouldn't have picked up on it and Biden wouldn't be put on the spot. And Beijing would still be forced to respect Taipei's ridiculous median line out of fear to escalate the situation.
 
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