Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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reservior dogs

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Rettam Stacf said:
Thanks for the thoughtful post.

I never for a single moment believe that PLAAF will shoot down Pelosi's plane, and posted a couple of times on the topic. However, I have to admit that I was mildly disappointed that PLAAF did not "meet and escort" Pelosi's plane into Taiwan air space.

To me, the real issue is what China does after the plane has landed. Unless China has a few more tricks up her sleeve (and I hope they do), I do not see what China has done up to this point will deter or delay Taiwan from seeking independence. In fact, it will probably push Taiwan to accelerate the process (openly) as well as aggressively securing weapons (quietly), with the West and the Anglosphere in particular being more than just willing supporters and suppliers.

China's path to AR is almost guaranteed now and the time line has shorten. Whichever response option China chooses, it will likely not change the prospect of AR, nor delay it. So might as well pick the ones that gives China the best military and economic advantages when AR comes.

I hope there will be peaceful reunification. But reality tell me that it is next to impossible now.
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I would not worry so much about this. At the end of the day, what Taiwan does at least in part is based on their realistic assessment of the Chinese power which, if anything, the now military actions of PLA will magnify the fears in the Taiwan government.
There is never a chance that the Taiwan government will submit to peaceful reunion on their own accord. There is only two cases where peaceful reunion would happen.

1. The U.S. having gotten us into a pickle that we can't get out of without the help of China, sold Taiwan to China.
2. The comprehensive power of China has surpassed the U.S. by a big enough factor that China incurs virtually no cost in initiating a push for reunion.

Let's see how things play out in the next decade or two. One of these happening is a real possibility in the next two decades.
 
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reservior dogs

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Biscuits said:
The rhetoric was mainly to trap USA in a war of words where they're weak, because to Americans, face is (almost) everything, making them predictable if you can rile them up and make them believe their image is threatened.

Getting her not to go was deliberately made nearly impossible for Biden. China thought through this extremely clearly, because they doubled down on rhetoric after the Biden call where it was already confirmed Pelosi would try to go.

"Unrealistic expectations that were not met" what do you think the idea of moving the status quo means? You now have the expectation of armed reunification, so anything short of that means being soft on Taiwan, even if it represents a huge setback for Taiwanese independence. Therefore, such actions can now be extremely easily justified without being seen as escalatory.

Chinese threats made America so elated when Pelosi wasn't touched that they declared this to be their win, and celebrated like Russians did when they took Crimea. Yet by selling their win that highly, they've also given China huge free reign to retaliate. Only, they're starting to realize that Russians got to keep Crimea, making EU countemoves "worth it" to some extent, but US has come no closer to gaining Taiwan after Pelosi than before Pelosi.
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Yes, the Chinese took the actions so a big price will be extracted if Pelosi decide not to go. They were going to let her get off scot free if she decided not to go. Still, there was a chance that she could be persuaded by the American establishment to refrain from going. In this case, selfish short sighted motives trumped longer term U.S. interests.
 
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Biscuits

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Overbom said:
What about this?
View attachment 94818
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Imo basically Chinese and US politicians both sound equally highly cringe most of the time, but the US ones are by far more corrupt.

Young politicians are usually more eloquent. That is a reason I think China may need to drop the current Xi government at some point to truly move on to a new era. Looking at the current situation, Xi doesn't need to put much effort into "winning" this crisis, he just needs to not suddenly act like an idiot an throw all the escalatory advantages China has. And since Xi is generally smart, even if he's suspiciously dovish towards US and had former ties in US, I don't think it's possible for Xi to throw at this point.

That in turn means a 3rd term will be guaranteed.
 
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