Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

9dashline said:

Don't be putting words in my mouth without my permission nor consent boy...

I specifically said if the US, China, TW conflict and/or incident does not go hot kinetic in the month of August 2022, that I would voluntarily and permanently leave the forum. I never mentioned August 2nd as the deadline... It seems lately a lot of people have been adding expectations where none were stated.

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TheFoozyOne said:

Let’s now see if China is really willing to go within 12 nm of Taiwan or only fire some shells into the waters.

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FairAndUnbiased said:

The more I think about it the more this seems to me like a Sun Tzu "appear weak when you are strong" moment. Normalizing exercises in Taiwan claimed territory is a pretty big win, especially if uncontested. Because you can then salami slice from a much higher starting line. Now instead of "will they go into the ADIZ" it is "how long is this no fly thing". Especially if this is sustained yet sporadic, it keeps them on their toes.

Basically imposing a soft blockade on Taiwan would have been seen as ridiculously escalatory, but now is seen as weak. Wow. The Overton window didn't just move, they did a remodel.

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plawolf said:

Reflecting on how the past couple of days have gone, I must admit to feeling great internal conflict. The child in me wanted China to finally bare its fans and push back against endless provocations and insults, but the man in me is relieved that China’s leaders have put the greater good of the nation and the people ahead of emotion and personal ambition.

While part of me is disappointed China did not push back, most of me is glad that everything I have worked my whole life for, and all the plans, hopes and dreams I have for the future are still intact.

And it was as I was trying to rationalise that internal conflict that I realised that the time was not yet right. When China finally does decide to go, it should not have to face such a stark and costly choice.

Could China have shot down Pelosi’s plane, obliterated the USN in Asia and launched a successful armed reunification? I think it could have, and I think we came closer to such a moment than most could ever have imagined. China’s military preparation was no bluff.

This final point is what the upcoming exercises are intended to prove, that China has both the right and the might to respond, but chose not to for the greater good.

While the pro-America and anti-China trolls shriek with delight at another insult against China, the silence from world capitals is deafening. Anyone with half a brain can see that America was the one willing to take the world to the brink of ruin for the most selfish and petty of reasons, and it was Chinese maturity to not take the bait what they have to thank for not having everything they have worked for, everyone they love and care about, and all the future plans and dreams put at existential risk.

As with all recent American accomplishments, they have won a great propaganda victory at the cost of tangible real world losses.

As the Chinese exercises rage on and the economic pain starts to hit home, I wonder how many of those celebrating in Taiwan will hold their cheer and continue to think the costs to them worth the gain for Pelosi and her stock portfolio.

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FairAndUnbiased said:

The more I think about it the more this seems to me like a Sun Tzu "appear weak when you are strong" moment. Normalizing exercises in Taiwan claimed territory is a pretty big win, especially if uncontested. Because you can then salami slice from a much higher starting line. Now instead of "will they go into the ADIZ" it is "how long is this no fly thing". Especially if this is sustained yet sporadic, it keeps them on their toes.

Basically imposing a soft blockade on Taiwan would have been seen as ridiculously escalatory, but now is seen as weak. Wow. The Overton window didn't just move, they did a remodel.

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reservior dogs said:

The move by America, if you can call it that, is short sighted domestic politics with no regard to the longer term impact. The moves made by the Chinese, while in retrospective could have been improved to avert the loss of face, were focused on the longer term results. While the negative impact will fade with time, the gains that the Chinese gets are real, significant and long lasting. In the future, the Chinese leadership will learn from this event and do a better job.

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Bob Smith said:

They can start learning by stopping their cringey "wolf warrior diplomacy." It just makes them look like unhinged paper tigers when push comes to shove.

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