Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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Petrolicious88

Senior Member
Registered Member
If there is no serious deterrent factor in China's response (to Pelosi's visit) now, it just encourage other countries to arm Taiwan with more weapons that will make it more bloody when the time come for armed reunification.

As pointed out by numerous forum members, the US and her allies do not care about Taiwan's independence. They just want to see any AR will be as bloody and resource draining as possible to drag down China.
By that logic, the US is almost guaranteed to intervene to an AR. US invaded Iraq to stop Sadam from taking over Kuwait and hence Middle East oil. Now, China is not Iraq, but Taiwan is certainly more important than Kuwait. And Semiconductors is the new oil. 60% of worlds GDP will come from Asia in the next decade. Whoever controls Asia will control the world. US will not leave Asia without a fight.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
If there is no serious deterrent factor in China's response (to Pelosi's visit) now, it just encourage other countries to arm Taiwan with more weapons that will make it more bloody when the time come for armed reunification.

As pointed out by numerous forum members, the US and her allies do not care about Taiwan's independence. They just want to see any AR will be as bloody and resource draining as possible to drag down China.
I know that am one of those "members" that were highly disappointed, agitated having perceived that China didn't react with extreme prejudice to deter would be salami slicing partakers. But people like us (from the peanut gallery) don't have an iota of clues as to what's happening or happened behind the scenes that were being considered for the Pelosi trip prior, during, and after.

We are highly more sensitive because some of us frequents other forums with sizable anti-China members and this latest stunt from Pelosi only added to the hype and raised our respective expectations that this time China is going to rekt and about to open up a new can of China against Pelosi = America/Jai Hinds supporters etc..especially when our collective emotional dopamine was aided by commentary from comrade hype man Xu, and various government issued statements. Then you add those videos of troops deployments popping up in Fujian then of course, we or at least in my case thought that something big was about to go down only to find out in real time that the hype didn't meet the expectation which was a huge letdown.

We have to realize by now that in positions of serious leadership emotions must be suppressed in order to be able to come up with a plan or execute something that does not quench a thirst for temporary but gratifying action, instead the actions taken require considerable time to be appreciated or seen it's actual results.

The outrage in China expressed by the Douyin generation, while palpable must not and never replaced the cerebral approach taken by the government leadership.

I maybe guilty of acting like an emotional toddler for not getting my sweet fixed but it doesn't mean that I don't appreciate what's being done as of right now. Frankly, if countries or leaders like wannabe supapowah a.k.a. Jai Hinds want to taste Chinese lead, all they have to do is take the first step and the PLA will be more than happy to send them to nirvana.

Social media is good for expressing outrage but it's not a substitute for sober thinking and careful planning. The future of China and the Chinese people are at stake. Any wrong move will set us all back that can impede China's dream of national reunification and rejuvenation.

I agree with @ZeEa5KPul @Biscuits @Overbom most especially with @ZeEa5KPul assessment even though the dude can be a little prick at times with his opinion.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
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Big article from Global Times
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The exercises are unprecedented in that conventional missiles are expected to fly over the island of Taiwan for the first time, the PLA forces will enter the sea area within 12 nautical miles to the island, and that the so-called median line will no longer exist, experts said.


When it comes to sending warplanes to intercept Pelosi's plane, such close-range countermeasures can easily lead to a gunfire incident.
"There's no need to launch a war with the US now, as it's not in line with our national strategy," Jin Canrong, associate dean of the School of International Studies at the Renmin University of China, told the Global Times on Wednesday.

And thats a bingo for whoever said that public consent on reunification is being fermented
Jin believes that in face of Pelosi's visit, Chinese society showed an unprecedented consistent public opinion of "safeguarding the national reunification" and "opposing US provocation," which lays out a strong public opinion foundation for launching the process of reunification, therefore solving the Taiwan question will only be a matter of time in the next few years.


The status quo has finally changed. Any illusion that the US is or ever was committed to the one-China policy has evaporated, he said.
"The arrival of the Speaker of the House of Representatives and second in line to serve as the Chief Executive in the sitting president's absence has ended decades of reunification efforts. From the perspective of the People's Republic of China, the Three Communiqués which set the conditions for US-PRC diplomatic relations are viewed by the US to be worthless pieces of paper," Galy said.



This also applies to some people here
However, in contrast to China's long-term strategic determination and patience, the US' biggest miscalculation is to undermine the overall China-US relations for the selfish interests of certain politicians, and when the US is playing the Taiwan card to create crisis scenarios across the Straits,
China is steadily turning those scenarios into opportunities to achieve its goal of reunification. Such long-term rational strategic consideration also helped it tackle previous crisis such as the disputes over the Diaoyu Islands, the South China Sea and the riots in Hong Kong in 2019.
 

supercat

Major
As pointed out by numerous forum members, the US and her allies do not care about Taiwan's independence. They just want to see any AR will be as bloody and resource draining as possible to drag down China.
That's the essence of America's strategy. What else can they do to prevent China's rise?

China did not bite, and people all over the world are grateful.


On the other hand, I don't think the so-called "Median Line" over the Taiwan Strait will be respected by China anymore.

Another map that shows the areas of military exercises:
 

delta115

Junior Member
Registered Member
China isn't going to setup real blockade, that is going too far.

The exercise is to demonstrate that China can theoretically surround and blockade Taiwan to make them uncomfortable. It's also to test determination of US to support Taiwan. So, far I don't see any movement from their military yet.

Since Pelosi push for new status quo with US blessing, it's time to see if China willing to do the same thing by pushing their military deeper into area that Taipei goverment consider as their territory. Remember when Taiwan media cry about PLAAF "intrude" into ADIZ? a lot of peoples angry and condemm China as aggressor. Now? no one giving a damm but PLAAF are still lurking closer bit by bit.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
On the other hand, I don't think the so-called "Median Line" over the Taiwan Strait will be respected by China anymore.
What Median Line, it doesn't exist anymore.
From the post above yours:
The exercises are unprecedented in that conventional missiles are expected to fly over the island of Taiwan for the first time, the PLA forces will enter the sea area within 12 nautical miles to the island, and that the so-called median line will no longer exist, experts said.
 

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
China isn't going to setup real blockade, that is going too far.

The exercise is to demonstrate that China can theoretically surround and blockade Taiwan to make them uncomfortable. It's also to test determination of US to support Taiwan. So, far I don't see any movement from their military yet.

The importances is probably less on demonstration but more on refinement. An exercise will help out in smoothing out any undetected issues that needs adjustments or fixing.
 

reservior dogs

Junior Member
Registered Member
If there is no serious deterrent factor in China's response (to Pelosi's visit) now, it just encourage other countries to arm Taiwan with more weapons that will make it more bloody when the time come for armed reunification.

As pointed out by numerous forum members, the US and her allies do not care about Taiwan's independence. They just want to see any AR will be as bloody and resource draining as possible to drag down China.
Nations react to these events differently than individuals. Those whose governments are hijacked by the U.S. will do as they are told and will not be impacted by what China does. Those who react by observing events unfold will realistically assess the perspective powers of each country and not base their response on superficial lack of confrontation for this event.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
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China's countermeasures against Pelosi's Taiwan visit won't be one-off: Global Times editorial
This time, the whole world has seen clearly who is changing the status quo in the Taiwan Straits, who provoked first, and who is undermining cross-Straits peace and stability. It is a great irony that these three points have been exactly US and Western public opinions' targets of attacks against China for some time. The Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities have taken the chance to make itself the "victim" and play the pity card. All of a sudden, the international public opinion concerning Taiwan was stirred into pandemonium.
But in the face of Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, US' rhetoric to call black white, its hegemonic mentality and gangster logic, as well as the essence of the DPP authorities' moves to "rely on US support for their independence agenda", are all exposed. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's false countercharges could not even convince US allies and partners, nor could they explain US' behaviors.
China's countermeasures will not be one-off but a combination of long-term, resolute and steadily advancing actions
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Seems like a mini-blockade is going to happen?
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PLA to start live fire drills 2 days after Pelosi's visit, leaves time for ship evacuations, airline adjustments
Some people have been questioning why the PLA decided to kick off the drills two days after her arrival. A military expert explained that the arrangement shows the PLA's rational and responsible attitude as it leaves time for domestic and foreign civilian ships and airlines to evacuate their ships and adjust their flights.
Per international conventions, areas of military drills have to be disclosed three days in advance and 24 hours in advance under an emergency situation. "That is mainly to leave enough time for domestic and foreign ships to evacuate as well as for related civilian airlines to adjust their routes to avoid the areas. The move is intended to avoid hurting ordinary people during the drills, showing the rational and responsible attitude of the PLA," Zhang noted
 
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